Why a blockade would not halt Iran’s oil overnight
Amid Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the ensuing US blockade, an old energy fantasy has resurfaced that cutting off a country’s oil exports works like flipping a switch. But reality is less cinematic and far more uncomfortable.
If Iran faced a serious maritime blockade, its oil system would not collapse overnight. It would absorb the shock, adapt, and only gradually tighten under pressure.
That distinction between sudden failure and slow strain is not just technical. It is the difference between a crisis markets can price instantly and one that unfolds in uneasy stages.
As Washington says its blockade is tightening around Tehran, understanding that distinction matters.
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