'Nothing is over': Iran-Israel conflict enters a new phase
Negar Mojtahedi
Iran International
Iran and Israel have paused direct attacks, but Tehran's latest warning suggests the conflict may be evolving rather than ending.
Iran International
Iran and Israel have paused direct attacks, but Tehran's latest warning suggests the conflict may be evolving rather than ending.
On Monday, Iran said it would suspend operations against Israel but warned attacks would resume if Israel continued striking Lebanon.
Israel rejected the condition, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accusing Tehran and Hezbollah of trying to create a new equation in which attacks on Israel would no longer carry consequences.
The development has fueled debate over whether the latest ceasefire represents the end of the fighting—or merely the end of its first phase.
A ceasefire tied to Lebanon
For UAE-based analyst Amjad Taha, the answer is straightforward.
"It's a pause rather than a ceasefire or an end of war," he told Iran International.
Taha argues that Tehran's decision to link its ceasefire to Lebanon reveals that the Islamic Republic continues to view regional conflicts through the lens of its proxy network.
"The fact that the Islamic regime right now says it's fighting and its condition in Lebanon ceasefire with its own, it tells us that Iran's, the Islamic Regime still sees Lebanon and other countries as its own proxy and its own extension," he said.
In his view, the current calm risks postponing rather than resolving the underlying conflict.
"If the ceasefire happens right now, we are just postponing another 7th of October-style event, but this time across the Middle East, not just the state of Israel."
Elizabeth Tsurkov, a fellow at the New Lines Institute, sees Iran's Lebanon condition as part of a broader effort to shape the post-war landscape.
"It appears clear that the Iranian regime believes that it won the 40-day war and is therefore trying to establish new rules of the game to project its power and deter Israeli action in Lebanon as well," she said.
Tsurkov also rejected suggestions that apparent tensions between Washington and Jerusalem amount to a coordinated strategy.
"I don't think that this is a matter of bad cop, good cop," she said. "Trump genuinely wants a deal."
Her assessment points to a broader reality emerging from the latest crisis: Lebanon is no longer a separate arena. It has become intertwined with negotiations over Iran, regional deterrence and the future of the ceasefire itself.
A new equation?
The debate over Iran's intentions has exposed sharply different interpretations of the latest escalation. While some see Tehran acting from a position of weakness, others argue it has successfully shaped events since the ceasefire.
Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, believes Iran has managed to place itself at the center of multiple interconnected disputes.
"The Iranian regime, as of now, has been quite clearly able to dictate the pace," he said.
Melamed argued that Tehran is attempting to connect "the story of the Hormuz Strait, Iran, the nuclear program and the situation in Lebanon," creating additional pressure points for both Washington and Jerusalem.
As the dispute over Lebanon intensified, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi shared an image on X showing the Iranian and Lebanese flags intertwined, reflecting Tehran's position that the two fronts are inseparable.
Still, Melamed cautioned against drawing firm conclusions.
"I think we are at a phase where you could say that, at the same time, the Iranian regime could mark some significant achievements as far as the Iranian regime is concerned," he said, describing the current situation as an "ongoing ping pong game."
Others reject the notion that Iran is acting from a position of confidence.
John Craig, a former US ambassador and senior fellow at the Transatlantic Leadership Network, sees the latest missile attack as an attempt to undermine diplomacy rather than demonstrate strength.
"Iran is desperate to slow/stop any negotiations," Craig said.
He remains skeptical that the current pause will hold.
"Nothing is over," he said. "The IRGC does not want any agreement. Ever."
For military analyst Andrew Fox, the future of the ceasefire may depend less on Tehran and Jerusalem than on developments in Lebanon.
"I think it very much depends on what happens in Lebanon," Fox said.
While describing Israel's latest response as limited compared with the broader war phase, Fox said the underlying conflict remains unresolved.
"It clearly wasn't a full-scale return to combat operations. It was nothing like the scale or intensity of what we saw during the war phase. But it did send a message."
And despite the current lull, he does not believe hostilities have truly ended.
"I don't think it is an end to hostilities," Fox said. "I don't think it is an end to attempts to overthrow the Iranian regime, but I think it will draw a line under this phase."
That may be the clearest point of agreement among analysts. Whether they view Iran as emboldened, opportunistic or desperate, few believe the latest ceasefire has settled the larger struggle.
Trump continues to pursue negotiations with Tehran. Netanyahu has vowed Israel will respond forcefully to future attacks. And Iran has made clear that its restraint is conditional on events beyond its borders.
The missiles may have stopped flying between Iran and Israel. But by tying its ceasefire to Lebanon, Tehran has ensured that the next test of the truce may come not in Tehran or Tel Aviv, but on Israel's northern border.
Citizens who sent the videos to Iran International described the locations as the mountains near Najafabad or areas around Vilashahr, Khomeini-Shahr and Homayoun-Shahr.
The Ahmad Kazemi facility is located in that same area, five kilometers west of Khomeini-Shahr, 1.5 kilometers north of Vilashahr and seven kilometers northeast of Najafabad.
Officially named after Ahmad Kazemi, a late commander of the IRGC Air Force, the roughly two-square-kilometer complex is used for the production, assembly and storage of the IRGC’s strategic missiles.
Iranian state media usually describe such sites as “missile cities.”
A cluster of 12 tunnel entrances can be seen at the complex in aerial images.
The site’s storage capacity has reportedly been estimated at up to 2,000 missiles, though that refers to its overall capacity. After two wars, it is unclear how many missiles actually remain there.
Prepared berms for deploying launchers and missile transport frames are visible across the complex.
A comparison of images from before the 12-day war in July 2024 and after it in December 2025 shows that large parts of the base were destroyed during that conflict.
(To compare the images below, move the slider from right to left or vice versa.)
During the clashes on Sunday night and Monday morning, June 8, there were reports both of missile launches from the area and of explosions at the site following Israeli attacks.
The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) has described the complex as Iran’s largest missile assembly and production facility.
The Ahmad Kazemi complex was built in the late 1980s with assistance from North Korea and China. Solid and liquid fuels, missile components, Shahab missiles and Chinese-made Silkworm and M-class missiles are assembled and produced there.
During both the 12-day war in 2025 and the 2026 war, known as the 40-day war, powerful explosions were repeatedly reported in the area.
Aerial imagery partly revealed the extent of the damage after the 12-day war.
(To compare the images below, move the slider from right to left or vice versa.)
During the 2026 war, multiple reports were published about attacks on the base, including on March 13, 2026, and March 27, 2026.
Officials in Khuzestan province said the facility was hit during Israeli attacks, with reports indicating damage to chlorine-related units and storage facilities. Any prolonged disruption could affect both domestic supply chains and exports from one of Iran's most important petrochemical hubs.
Karoon is located in Mahshahr, home to a concentration of petrochemical facilities that form a major pillar of Iran's non-oil economy.
Links to the IRGC
Karoon is owned by Persian Gulf Petrochemical Industries Company (PGPIC), Iran's largest petrochemical holding group.
The United States sanctioned PGPIC and dozens of affiliated companies in 2019, saying the group generated billions of dollars that helped finance the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its construction arm, Khatam al-Anbiya.
According to the US Treasury, PGPIC subsidiaries worked with Khatam al-Anbiya through engineering, construction and financing contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Washington said revenue from the petrochemical sector provided an important source of funding for the IRGC's military activities.
The Guards have long maintained a significant presence in Iran's energy and industrial sectors through a network of companies, contractors and affiliated organizations that oversee major infrastructure projects and benefit from export revenues.
Role in missile-related industries
Petrochemical facilities are primarily civilian enterprises, but some of their products can have military applications.
Chemical compounds produced in Mahshahr and other petrochemical centers such as Assaluyeh can be used as precursor materials in the production of propellants and other components associated with missile programs.
During previous operations targeting industrial facilities in the Mahshahr area, Israel said sites in the region were involved in producing materials used by Iran's missile program.
Israeli military officials said on Monday that one of their objectives was to destroy infrastructure used to manufacture raw materials essential for ballistic missile production.
The dual-use nature of petrochemical production means facilities can simultaneously support civilian industries while supplying materials that may have military applications.
Critical supplier for domestic industry
Despite scrutiny over military links, Karoon remains one of the most important suppliers to Iran's civilian manufacturing sector.
The company is the region's only producer of isocyanates, advanced chemical compounds used in the production of polyurethane materials.
These products serve as the foundation for a wide range of industrial and consumer goods, including insulation, adhesives, coatings, automotive components, footwear, furniture and household appliances.
Karoon receives feedstock such as benzene and toluene from neighboring petrochemical plants and combines them with chlorine, carbon monoxide and hydrogen to produce isocyanates and related products.
The facility's strategic importance increased after the implementation of the HYCO (Hydrogen and Carbon Monoxide) project, which enabled domestic production of carbon monoxide and hydrogen and reduced dependence on imported supplies.
Impact on supply chains and exports
Industry experts say damage to chlorine production units could have consequences beyond the immediate facility.
Chlorine is essential for the production of phosgene, a key intermediate chemical used in manufacturing isocyanates. Any interruption to chlorine supplies can halt downstream production, affecting multiple industries dependent on polyurethane products.
The effects could extend throughout the Mahshahr industrial zone, disrupting manufacturers that rely on Karoon's output.
Karoon also serves export markets. The company ships products including aniline to India and sells other chemical products to customers in Turkey, Russia and neighboring countries.
Those exports have helped Iran maintain a regional presence in specialty chemical markets while generating valuable foreign currency earnings.
A strategic target
The strike illustrates how Iran's petrochemical sector occupies a position at the intersection of economic and security concerns.
For Tehran, facilities such as Karoon support industrial self-sufficiency, exports and employment. For Israel and Western governments, parts of the sector are viewed as supporting broader military and missile-related capabilities through financial links to the IRGC and the production of dual-use materials.
As a result, major petrochemical complexes have become increasingly significant targets in a confrontation that extends well beyond the battlefield and into the infrastructure underpinning Iran's economy and defense industries.
