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ANALYSIS

Reports of deaths in custody in Iran raise fears of quiet repression

Reports of deaths in custody in Iran raise fears of quiet repression

Human rights activists are sounding the alarm over reports of secret and extrajudicial executions in Iran, warning that the authorities may be moving toward retaliating against detainees after the deadly crackdown on protests in January.

Why Iran may not afford to close the Strait of Hormuz

Why Iran may not afford to close the Strait of Hormuz

Tehran’s frequently invoked threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz may be far easier to signal than to carry out, not least because it would harm allied China more than the hostile West.

Why Tehran sees war as a survival strategy

Iran’s leadership is edging toward a war scenario not because diplomacy is necessarily collapsing, but because confrontation is increasingly seen as the least damaging option for a ruling system under intense internal and external pressure.

Tehran and Washington test the limits of talks without trust

The reappearance of diplomacy between Washington and Tehran is being shadowed by limited but dangerous military showdowns, revealing how narrow the space for negotiation has become in the absence of trust.

Why Iran cannot stop its currency collapse

Why Iran cannot stop its currency collapse

Iran’s currency has lost half its value in just six months and is now at risk of losing its role as both a store of value and a functioning currency, as households and businesses increasingly shift prices, savings, and expectations toward the US dollar.

Gunboat diplomacy: US seeks coercion without war on Iran

Gunboat diplomacy: US seeks coercion without war on Iran

President Donald Trump’s response to Iran’s recent unrest appears to reflect a strategy of gunboat diplomacy: the use of military pressure, rhetorical escalation, and economic coercion to extract concessions without committing to war or formal regime change.

Why Turkey fears Iran’s unrest more than its repression

Why Turkey fears Iran’s unrest more than its repression

Iranians’ chants against the Islamic Republic—muted for now by brute force—are viewed in Turkey not as a struggle for freedom but as a geopolitical risk from migration and militancy.

Why 'locked and loaded’ US is still holding back on Iran

Why 'locked and loaded’ US is still holding back on Iran

US President Donald Trump’s dramatic naval buildup in the Middle East appears to have generated more strategic uncertainty than clarity both in Tehran and in Washington.

Iran crossed point of no return as protests collide with economic exhaustion

Iran crossed point of no return as protests collide with economic exhaustion

Iran cannot simply rewind to the weeks before the protests began. The crackdown hardened public anger, while an already overstretched economy and energy system lost what little room they had to absorb another shock.

Iran’s two crypto economies: state guile and household survival

Iran’s two crypto economies: state guile and household survival

Cryptocurrency is a rare tool embraced by both Iran’s rulers and its citizens—used at the top to enrich elites to dodge sanctions and at the bottom to survive the economic devastation wrought by their policies.

From control to collapse: why Iran’s state broadcaster no longer persuades

From control to collapse: why Iran’s state broadcaster no longer persuades

Iran’s state broadcaster has reached a point where control no longer translates into attention, exposing how years of manipulation, omission and distrust have hollowed out its authority and left a system that still fills airtime but is no longer watched.

Iran's energy trade defies year of US maximum pressure sanctions

Iran's energy trade defies year of US maximum pressure sanctions

One year after US President Donald Trump returned to the White House and revived the "maximum pressure" sanctions on Iran from his first term, available data show the country’s energy exports remain largely intact.

Come what may in Iran, Russia will adapt to preserve influence

Come what may in Iran, Russia will adapt to preserve influence

Russia likely views Iran’s mass anti-regime protests with deep unease, but may ultimately adapt just as it did in Syria to preserve influence whether the Islamic Republic survives or a new political order emerges.

Iran's rulers are betting on the iron fist

Iran's rulers are betting on the iron fist

The unprecedented brutal crackdown on recent protests in Iran suggests Tehran's rulers are no longer attempting to govern a discontented society but are in open conflict with it.

If Iran changes, the region's economy would change with it

If Iran changes, the region's economy would change with it

The future of the Islamic Republic is unresolved, but if and when change comes, Iran’s return to global trade would carry far-reaching consequences for the region’s economy.

Turkey treads carefully as Iran faces unrest

Turkey treads carefully as Iran faces unrest

Turkey has adopted a calculated caution during the recent waves of protests in neighboring Iran, avoiding endorsement of those who took to the streets while stopping short of backing Tehran’s violent crackdown.

From 'grievances' to 'terrorism’: how Tehran reframed dissent

From 'grievances' to 'terrorism’: how Tehran reframed dissent

A review of public statements by Iran’s senior officials since late December suggests a marked hardening of tone as protests escalated, a shift that coincided with a sharp intensification of the state’s security response.

Restraint as strategy: Israel watches Iran’s unrest from afar

Restraint as strategy: Israel watches Iran’s unrest from afar

Israel’s apparent inaction amid Iran’s widespread unrest may look counterintuitive, but it reflects a long-standing strategic calculation rather than hesitation.

How Trump’s secondary tariffs could hurt Tehran

How Trump’s secondary tariffs could hurt Tehran

A 25 percent tariff on US imports from any country that trades with Iran appears aimed at punishing third countries, but it is likely to hit Tehran far harder.

Iran’s crisis and the limits of sovereignty

Iran’s crisis and the limits of sovereignty

The events of the past two weeks in Iran point toward an openly regime-change movement, with protesters calling for the end of the Islamic Republic itself.

Iranians want a normal life and the ayatollah has no answer

Iranians want a normal life and the ayatollah has no answer

What is unfolding in Iran is a clash between a state that treats isolation and sacrifice as strategic virtues, and a society no longer willing to bear the economic and human cost of the Islamic Republic’s ideological and regional ambitions.

As US weighs attack, fate of Iran protests may hang in the balance

As US weighs attack, fate of Iran protests may hang in the balance

As Iran steps up a deadly crackdown on nationwide demonstrations, some analysts warned that if US President Donald Trump does not act on his vow to protect protestors, the unrest he helped galvanize may be stamped out.