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ANALYSIS

Will Mojtaba Khamenei's absence help the Islamic Republic survive?

Will Mojtaba Khamenei's absence help the Islamic Republic survive?

Since Mojtaba Khamenei was named the Islamic Republic's third supreme leader, no one has seen him or heard his voice. That looks like weakness. It is worth asking whether it might instead be postponing the system's political death.

Iran keeps finding gas. Getting it out is the problem

Iran keeps finding gas. Getting it out is the problem

Iran has announced another major gas discovery, but with the world’s second-largest reserves already beneath its soil, Tehran’s problem is not finding gas but finding the money and technology to extract it.

Iran leader’s absence gives war camp room to shape policy

Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen or heard publicly, leaving his condition and circumstances unclear as officials govern in his name, interpret messages attributed to him and invoke his authority on questions ranging from negotiations with Washington to the conduct of the war.

Iran crude loadings plunge to one-seventh of pre-war level as blockade bites

Iranian crude loadings have fallen to about one-seventh of their pre-war level under the US naval blockade, while Chinese receipts of Iranian oil and fuel exports have also dropped sharply, tanker-tracking data reviewed by Iran International shows.

Houthis more effective Iran ally than Hezbollah, Yemen expert says

Houthis more effective Iran ally than Hezbollah, Yemen expert says

Yemen’s Houthis have become a more effective ally for Iran than Hezbollah, using Iranian support and their strategic Red Sea position to pursue both Tehran’s interests and their own agenda, Yemen analyst Mohammad al-Basha told Iran International.

Turkey’s gas pivot leaves Iran with fewer cards to play

Turkey’s gas pivot leaves Iran with fewer cards to play

The expiry of a 25-year gas contract has exposed a shift in the Iran-Turkey energy relationship, with Ankara now enjoying more supply options while Tehran risks losing one of its most dependable export markets.

UAE trade halt threatens one of Iran’s remaining economic lifelines

UAE trade halt threatens one of Iran’s remaining economic lifelines

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to halt all trade and financial transactions with Iran threatens one of Tehran’s most important routes for imports, petroleum-product sales and access to international commercial and financial networks.

Can Iran's fragile economy survive Trump's 'Economic D-Day'?

Can Iran's fragile economy survive Trump's 'Economic D-Day'?

Donald Trump has promised an “Economic D-Day” against Iran, a threat Tehran dismissed as another failed US policy. But with inflation, shipping costs and supply strains already biting, how much more pressure can Iran’s fragile economy absorb?

The unlikely return of European diplomacy in the Iran-US conflict

The unlikely return of European diplomacy in the Iran-US conflict

For years, diplomacy between Iran and the United States has largely been conducted through a familiar group of intermediaries.

The 60-day deadline is over. Now what does Trump do with Iran?

The 60-day deadline is over. Now what does Trump do with Iran?

With the 60-day period set by the June US-Iran memorandum now over and no final agreement in place, Washington faces a choice between intensifying pressure, renewing major strikes or settling into a prolonged and unstable holding pattern.

To survive maximum pressure, Iran kept pumping and broke its oil company

To survive maximum pressure, Iran kept pumping and broke its oil company

Donald Trump’s maximum pressure is usually scored by counting tankers and tracking the rial, but Iran’s budget points to a deeper cost: more than $80 billion in NIOC bank debt and sovereign-fund arrears, repeatedly deferred as Iranians shoulder the burden.

War redraws Iran’s trade as ties with key partners plunge

War redraws Iran’s trade as ties with key partners plunge

Iran says its non-oil trade has fallen by around 30% since the war began, but figures from several of its biggest trading partners point to far steeper declines in some of the country’s most important commercial relationships.

Iran’s security reshuffle lays bare political drama at the top

Iran’s security reshuffle lays bare political drama at the top

The ascension of Mohsen Rezaei as secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council underscores that there is much political drama beneath the surface of the Islamic Republic’s portrayal of strength as the Trump administration tries to end the war.

'Better than nukes'? Iran digs in on Hormuz as US deal nears end

'Better than nukes'? Iran digs in on Hormuz as US deal nears end

Iran is doubling down on control of the Strait of Hormuz, with some in Tehran now arguing the strategic leverage it provides is more valuable than a nuclear weapon.

Security by design: why Tehran is tearing up cobblestones

Security by design: why Tehran is tearing up cobblestones

Tehran's municipality is tearing up the cobblestones of the capital's historic pedestrian zones and laying asphalt, a change officials call traffic management and that architects and urban sociologists read as something older: the redesign of a city to make protest harder.

Iran loses ground in oil market as neighbors rebound

Iran loses ground in oil market as neighbors rebound

OPEC oil production continued its sharp post-war recovery in July, but Iran remained a notable exception, with output still around a quarter below pre-war levels and its oil revenues taking an even steeper hit.

When the language of home is no longer the language of life

When the language of home is no longer the language of life

The child understands every word her grandmother says in Persian. She answers in English. She can ask what's for dinner in her parents' language, but not describe her anxiety, her love or her future in it. She calls herself Iranian. Persian is no longer the language of her life.

From Hormuz to Bab el-Mandeb, conflict converges on vital shipping lanes

From Hormuz to Bab el-Mandeb, conflict converges on vital shipping lanes

Six people were killed when Iran-backed Houthis attacked a vessel in Bab el-Mandeb, an escalation experts say reflects not a second front in the Iran war but two conflicts converging, as the Houthis pursue their own interests while adding pressure on Iran’s adversaries.

The strange power of Iran’s absent supreme leader

The strange power of Iran’s absent supreme leader

Mojtaba Khamenei’s continued absence from public view has created an unusual system of authority in Tehran, where decisions are made and justified through written messages attributed to him while responsibility appears dispersed across a core establishment network.

Iran’s reality TV boom abroad captures a generation in limbo

Iran’s reality TV boom abroad captures a generation in limbo

Persian-language reality shows filmed outside Iran are giving young Iranians freedoms that would be impossible on television under the Islamic Republic, while revealing another side of life abroad: uncertainty over work, residency, identity and where ultimately to belong.

What the Islamic Republic does to its women footballers

What the Islamic Republic does to its women footballers

Late last month, Iran's finest striker sat across from the country's judiciary chief and asked him to help her find a job. Last week, two of her former teammates became Australian citizens. Between those two scenes lies everything the Islamic Republic offers its sportswomen.

US miscalculated Iran’s resilience and hurt deal prospects, expert says

US miscalculated Iran’s resilience and hurt deal prospects, expert says

Washington likely underestimated Iran’s ability to withstand the initial US-Israeli strikes, making a negotiated settlement harder to achieve and deepening mistrust, foreign-policy expert Paul Saunders told Iran International.