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ANALYSIS

Power vs piety: Khamenei Jr inherits legitimacy dilemma of Iran's theocracy

Power vs piety: Khamenei Jr inherits legitimacy dilemma of Iran's theocracy

Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei inherits not merely his father’s office but also the constitutional ambiguities and political compromises that accompanied Ali Khamenei’s own controversial elevation nearly four decades earlier.

Can widening the war save Iran’s rulers?

Can widening the war save Iran’s rulers?

Tehran’s decision to widen the war is an attempt to project strength but may better be understood as a survival strategy—one rooted in deliberate escalation and shaped by a logic akin to mutually assured destruction.

Hormuz disruption tests limits of global energy markets

Failure to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to show what prolonged disruption could mean for global energy markets.

A leader no one has seen: The unusual debut of Mojtaba Khamenei

Two days after he was announced as Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei remains absent from public view, raising questions his swift selection was meant to pre-empt.

Why some Iranians celebrate bombs: trauma experts explain

Why some Iranians celebrate bombs: trauma experts explain

Why would anyone celebrate bombs falling on their own country? The question were widely asked after videos emerged showing some Iranians cheering strikes on regime targets.

The ascendency of Khamenei Jr was a long-planned improvisation

The ascendency of Khamenei Jr was a long-planned improvisation

By elevating Mojtaba Khamenei—a figure most Iranians have never heard speak—the Islamic Republic has completed a long drift away from popular legitimacy.

US–Israeli strikes test Iran’s partnerships—and their limits

US–Israeli strikes test Iran’s partnerships—and their limits

Tehran may have assumed that a US–Israeli attack would activate the loose alignment it has cultivated with Moscow, Beijing and other non-Western powers. So far, it has instead exposed its limits.

Everyone is watching oil in Iran war, but real risk is water

Everyone is watching oil in Iran war, but real risk is water

As war spreads across the Middle East and attention focuses on oil, the region’s most dangerous soft targets may be desalination plants.

As Western activists chant ‘No War,’ some Iranians cheer US strikes

As Western activists chant ‘No War,’ some Iranians cheer US strikes

As anti-war protesters in Western capitals chant “no war with Iran,” some Iranians inside and outside the country are cheering the US-Israeli strikes and publicly thanking President Donald Trump.

A wartime succession in Iran: why the IRGC backed Mojtaba Khamenei

A wartime succession in Iran: why the IRGC backed Mojtaba Khamenei

A Supreme Leader has been killed. A son has been chosen. And the Revolutionary Guards are driving the process.

Post-Khamenei Iran: Succession race widens as decentralized system sustains war

Post-Khamenei Iran: Succession race widens as decentralized system sustains war

The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has triggered celebrations among many Iranians, but analysts say the moment marks not an endpoint but the beginning of a new and highly consequential chapter for the Islamic Republic.

Iran's oil weapon may rattle markets but not alter the war

Iran's oil weapon may rattle markets but not alter the war

Iran has shown it can disrupt regional energy flows. What remains far less clear is whether it can use that leverage to shape the outcome of the conflict in its favor.

Why Tehran’s business pitch to Trump won’t end nuclear deadlock

Why Tehran’s business pitch to Trump won’t end nuclear deadlock

Reports in major outlets that Tehran has floated a “commercial bonanza” to the Trump administration should be understood less as an investment roadmap than as a survival strategy.

Confront or concede: Iran’s brinkmanship reaches its limits

Confront or concede: Iran’s brinkmanship reaches its limits

After decades of ideological expansion abroad and coercive control at home, Tehran’s rulers face a narrowed choice between two treacherous paths: Concession of power or deeper confrontation.

China refiners turn to Russian oil as Iran faces rising uncertainty

China refiners turn to Russian oil as Iran faces rising uncertainty

China appears to be replacing disrupted Venezuelan oil shipments with Russian crude rather than Iranian barrels, despite steeper discounts being offered by Tehran.

Mexico cartel violence revives scrutiny of Iran-linked networks

Mexico cartel violence revives scrutiny of Iran-linked networks

As cartel violence grips Mexico following the death of a top drug lord, experts tell Iran International that Tehran-linked networks may be intertwined with the criminal infrastructure fueling instability across Latin America.

Iranian students burn flag, signaling a new phase in state–society rupture

Iranian students burn flag, signaling a new phase in state–society rupture

The burning of the Islamic Republic’s national flag at three Iranian universities on Monday marks a new high in the widening rift between the state and the people.

Why war may no longer be the worst outcome for Tehran

Why war may no longer be the worst outcome for Tehran

Tehran’s posture increasingly resembles that of an embattled state that sees greater odds of survival in confrontation than in compromise—one that views a decisive clash not as catastrophe, but as a potential turning point.

Big promises, bigger problems: governance after the Islamic Republic

Big promises, bigger problems: governance after the Islamic Republic

Iran stands at a pivotal moment. If political change brings institutional reform, the country could break decades of stagnation and return to sustained growth. But without credible governance, any transition risks replacing one failed equilibrium with another.

Money is leaving Iran faster as oil income falls and uncertainty mounts

Money is leaving Iran faster as oil income falls and uncertainty mounts

Capital flight from Iran is accelerating just as oil revenues decline, according to new data from the Central Bank of Iran—a convergence that helps explain the sharp fall of the national currency in recent months.

Why regional powers are pushing to prevent a US-Iran war

Why regional powers are pushing to prevent a US-Iran war

The latest round of Iran-US talks in Geneva on Tuesday would likely not have taken place without sustained pressure from regional powers that leveraged their close relations with Washington to help avert a wider war.

What would happen to Iran after the Islamic Republic?

What would happen to Iran after the Islamic Republic?

Two competing futures are being sketched for Iran: a bleak “Syria-style” slide into chaos, or a more optimistic path grounded in economic research and detailed transition planning by the Iran Prosperity Project, tailored to the country’s specific realities.