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ANALYSIS

Iran’s new war strategy seeks to turn blockade into broader economic confrontation

Iran’s new war strategy seeks to turn blockade into broader economic confrontation

Iran has signalled a sharper military posture after threatening US warships and energy interests, while seeking to extend its control of shipping beyond the Strait of Hormuz.

Europe’s third-way ambitions on Iran give way to alignment with Washington

Europe’s third-way ambitions on Iran give way to alignment with Washington

The Trump administration may be overstating Europe’s formal role in its “Economic D-Day” campaign against Iran, but years of economic and political convergence have increasingly aligned Europe with Washington.

The gamble behind US attacks on Iran’s oil tankers

US attacks on Iranian oil tankers could make it far harder and more expensive for Tehran to keep selling its crude, but the strategy carries a potentially much larger cost: turning the Persian Gulf’s energy infrastructure into an expanding battlefield.

Starlink next door could loosen Iran’s grip on internet

Starlink terminals becoming available in newly legal markets on Iran’s doorstep could make the Islamic Republic’s internet shutdowns harder to enforce, potentially lowering the cost of equipment that has become an increasingly important route around government blackouts.

Debate grows over whether Iran is burning its strongest card in Hormuz

Debate grows over whether Iran is burning its strongest card in Hormuz

A debate is widening in Tehran over whether Iran is exhausting one of its most powerful weapons against the United States, with growing warnings that the Strait of Hormuz could lose its effectiveness the longer restrictions continue.

Could Hormuz offer a way out of the US-Iran war?

Could Hormuz offer a way out of the US-Iran war?

The Strait of Hormuz has become one of the most dangerous points of leverage in the US-Iran war, but it may also offer Tehran and Washington their clearest route back to negotiations.

If Britain backs US plan, Iran's London bank shuts down on October 22

If Britain backs US plan, Iran's London bank shuts down on October 22

A bank owned by the Iranian state is still open in London, operating on a temporary permission from the British Treasury that expires on October 22. Renewing it, or letting it lapse, is Britain's answer to Washington's campaign to shut Iran's banks for good.

'If I'm not happy, they'll execute me': Iran's new grammar of dissent

'If I'm not happy, they'll execute me': Iran's new grammar of dissent

Iranians have found a way to complain about prices that no prosecutor can touch: they film themselves dancing beside the groceries, insist they are delighted, and explain that if they were not, they would be executed.

Trump’s call for an Iranian uprising runs into a trust problem

Trump’s call for an Iranian uprising runs into a trust problem

Donald Trump’s renewed call for Iranians to rise up against the Islamic Republic has revived a question among some of those he is urging into the streets: after months of shifting US policy, can they trust Washington to stand by them if they do?

Women footballers came home under pressure. Now Iran wants them on camera

Women footballers came home under pressure. Now Iran wants them on camera

Five months after Iran's women footballers sought asylum in Australia, the football federation has called the squad back into camp, not to train but to film a documentary about what happened there. Some of the players it wants on camera are the ones who came home under pressure.

Iran’s economy is a powder keg. Tehran is preparing for the spark

Iran’s economy is a powder keg. Tehran is preparing for the spark

Iran’s economic crisis is deepening, and with few answers for a population becoming poorer, Tehran is signaling how it may respond if economic anger again spills into the streets: repression and lethal force.

Every time Iran talks about de-escalation, something happens in Hormuz

Every time Iran talks about de-escalation, something happens in Hormuz

Iran's president spent Tuesday assuring Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi that Tehran would return to the Islamabad framework if Washington did. As he spoke, news broke that two Saudi tankers had been hit in the Strait of Hormuz.

US-Iran escalation prompts debate in Iran over preemptive strikes

US-Iran escalation prompts debate in Iran over preemptive strikes

Calls for preemptive strikes on US forces are growing in Iran after renewed US attacks, intensifying debate over whether Tehran should shift away from a mainly retaliatory strategy.

The republic of magic: How Iran turned the unseen into an instrument of rule

The republic of magic: How Iran turned the unseen into an instrument of rule

The Islamic Republic moved beliefs about the unseen from the margins of society to the center of power, and used oil money to give them institutions, budgets and a propaganda apparatus, so that its rulers could draw legitimacy from a source no citizen can question.

Iran fires back, but can missiles ease economic pain?

Iran fires back, but can missiles ease economic pain?

Iran’s latest strikes on American forces have brought threats of further US retaliation, but Washington increasingly sees Tehran’s military escalation as a sign of economic vulnerability rather than strategic strength.

Iran loses ground on trade as war hits oil and non-oil exports

Iran loses ground on trade as war hits oil and non-oil exports

Iran’s foreign trade has contracted sharply since the conflict with the United States began, with non-oil exports and imports falling by around a quarter or more, according to customs data released after months of delay.

What the US-Venezuela oil model could mean for Iran’s energy future

What the US-Venezuela oil model could mean for Iran’s energy future

The emerging US-Venezuela oil partnership could offer a model for how Iran’s vast but underinvested energy industry might be revived under a future government able to restore ties with the West, while also reshaping oil flows in Europe.

Washington’s economic war on Iran starts in Dubai, not Beijing

Washington’s economic war on Iran starts in Dubai, not Beijing

The Treasury Department’s opener for Operation Economic Outcast, launched Monday to cut Iran’s remaining income, suggests Washington sees Dubai, Istanbul and Baghdad — not Beijing — as the critical channels for Tehran’s money.

Iran’s missing fuel: Can border smuggling explain it all?

Iran’s missing fuel: Can border smuggling explain it all?

Iran’s large-scale fuel losses appear to go beyond the smuggling cited by officials in Tehran, with evidence pointing to organized diversion within the country’s fuel distribution system.

Iran or the dollar? US makes an example of Banque Misr

Iran or the dollar? US makes an example of Banque Misr

The US has opened a new front in its economic campaign against Iran by threatening to cut a major third-country bank out of the dollar system over alleged involvement in Tehran’s shadow-banking network.

War or deal? Rezaei begins to define Iran’s price

War or deal? Rezaei begins to define Iran’s price

Mohsen Rezaei on Friday set out four Iranian conditions for an agreement with the United States, another sign that the former IRGC commander who once championed an “offensive doctrine” may be moving from advocating war to contemplating a deal at the right price.

Will Mojtaba Khamenei's absence help the Islamic Republic survive?

Will Mojtaba Khamenei's absence help the Islamic Republic survive?

Since Mojtaba Khamenei was named the Islamic Republic's third supreme leader, no one has seen him or heard his voice. That looks like weakness. It is worth asking whether it might instead be postponing the system's political death.