ANALYSIS

The emerging US-Venezuela oil partnership could offer a model for how Iran’s vast but underinvested energy industry might be revived under a future government able to restore ties with the West, while also reshaping oil flows in Europe.

The Treasury Department’s opener for Operation Economic Outcast, launched Monday to cut Iran’s remaining income, suggests Washington sees Dubai, Istanbul and Baghdad — not Beijing — as the critical channels for Tehran’s money.

Iran’s large-scale fuel losses appear to go beyond the smuggling cited by officials in Tehran, with evidence pointing to organized diversion within the country’s fuel distribution system.

The US has opened a new front in its economic campaign against Iran by threatening to cut a major third-country bank out of the dollar system over alleged involvement in Tehran’s shadow-banking network.

Mohsen Rezaei on Friday set out four Iranian conditions for an agreement with the United States, another sign that the former IRGC commander who once championed an “offensive doctrine” may be moving from advocating war to contemplating a deal at the right price.

Since Mojtaba Khamenei was named the Islamic Republic's third supreme leader, no one has seen him or heard his voice. That looks like weakness. It is worth asking whether it might instead be postponing the system's political death.

Iran has announced another major gas discovery, but with the world’s second-largest reserves already beneath its soil, Tehran’s problem is not finding gas but finding the money and technology to extract it.

Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen or heard publicly, leaving his condition and circumstances unclear as officials govern in his name, interpret messages attributed to him and invoke his authority on questions ranging from negotiations with Washington to the conduct of the war.

Iranian crude loadings have fallen to about one-seventh of their pre-war level under the US naval blockade, while Chinese receipts of Iranian oil and fuel exports have also dropped sharply, tanker-tracking data reviewed by Iran International shows.

Yemen’s Houthis have become a more effective ally for Iran than Hezbollah, using Iranian support and their strategic Red Sea position to pursue both Tehran’s interests and their own agenda, Yemen analyst Mohammad al-Basha told Iran International.

The expiry of a 25-year gas contract has exposed a shift in the Iran-Turkey energy relationship, with Ankara now enjoying more supply options while Tehran risks losing one of its most dependable export markets.

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to halt all trade and financial transactions with Iran threatens one of Tehran’s most important routes for imports, petroleum-product sales and access to international commercial and financial networks.

Donald Trump has promised an “Economic D-Day” against Iran, a threat Tehran dismissed as another failed US policy. But with inflation, shipping costs and supply strains already biting, how much more pressure can Iran’s fragile economy absorb?

For years, diplomacy between Iran and the United States has largely been conducted through a familiar group of intermediaries.

With the 60-day period set by the June US-Iran memorandum now over and no final agreement in place, Washington faces a choice between intensifying pressure, renewing major strikes or settling into a prolonged and unstable holding pattern.

Donald Trump’s maximum pressure is usually scored by counting tankers and tracking the rial, but Iran’s budget points to a deeper cost: more than $80 billion in NIOC bank debt and sovereign-fund arrears, repeatedly deferred as Iranians shoulder the burden.

Iran says its non-oil trade has fallen by around 30% since the war began, but figures from several of its biggest trading partners point to far steeper declines in some of the country’s most important commercial relationships.

The ascension of Mohsen Rezaei as secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council underscores that there is much political drama beneath the surface of the Islamic Republic’s portrayal of strength as the Trump administration tries to end the war.