ANALYSIS

US President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may say less about Washington’s opposition to a deal than about its changing assessment of Tehran’s most important bargaining chip.

Talks between Iranian and US diplomats have continued in New York despite increasingly harsh rhetoric from both capitals, but the emerging dispute is less over whether to negotiate than over who must move first.

Mothers without headscarves walked daughters in regulation hoods to school in Iran this week. Women who remember 1980 describe the same scene from the year the state began imposing hijab. The picture is identical. What has changed is the society around it.

Tehran is signalling that its response to US pressure may be to widen the conflict, turning restrictions on its shipping and aviation into risks for airports and waterways stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea and potentially the Indian Ocean.

Iran’s economy contracted sharply in the spring as war hit its oil and gas sectors, with new data pointing to an energy crunch that could force Tehran to balance gas exports against rising domestic demand as winter approaches.

Any effort to end the Iran war faces a fundamental obstacle even after the resumption of US-Iran diplomacy in New York: apparent divisions within Tehran over who has the authority to negotiate and how far those negotiations can go.

A hacked freeway sign in the heart of Los Angeles’ Iranian community directed drivers to a website threatening opponents of the Islamic Republic, in what cyber and security experts describe as a psychological operation designed to spread fear.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's presence in New York this week could provide an opportunity to revive diplomacy with the United States, but the path to any direct engagement is unclear as both sides continue to mix offers of a deal with threats of further escalation.

Iranian hardliners spent the day before President Masoud Pezeshkian left for the UN General Assembly talking publicly about nuclear weapons, leaving the treaty that restrains them, and preparing for a long war with the United States.

Iranian manufacturers are rapidly running down stocks of raw materials as supply disruptions and rising costs deepen pressure on industrial production, according to the latest survey by the Iran Chamber of Commerce.

The sharp fall in Iran’s oil loadings is forcing it to curb production, raising costs beyond lost sales, from restarting aging wells to maintaining reservoir pressure and protecting shared fields. But could the shutdowns cause lasting damage?

Iranian officials and media are increasingly looking to China as a possible diplomatic bridge to Washington, as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s second wartime visit to Beijing coincides with preparations for President Xi Jinping’s talks with Donald Trump next week.

Iran is racing to restore gas infrastructure before winter after attacks knocked about 230 million cubic meters a day of gas-processing capacity offline, adding to shortages in an energy system already struggling to meet demand.

Four years after Mahsa “Jina” Amini’s death in Iran’s morality police custody sparked the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising, teenagers who watched her name become a rallying cry have grown up amid repression but beyond many of the social and political boundaries of pre-2022 Iran.

Iranian newspapers that agree on almost nothing agreed on Monday that the Muscat talks had collapsed. Kayhan, Shargh and Donya-ye Eghtesad all reported it, and the argument has already moved to what Tehran does next.

Iran has gained leverage over Saudi Arabia as Houthi advances and attacks put pressure on the kingdom’s territory and oil routes. But Riyadh is responding more forcefully, raising the risk that Tehran’s advantage could provoke a military backlash that ultimately weakens it.

Foreign investment in Iran has effectively come to a halt following the war with Israel and the United States, with no new foreign investment recorded so far this Iranian year, a senior industry ministry figure said.

Russia could help sustain Yemen’s Houthis if Iran’s ability to support the group is weakened, providing a lifeline as the group expands its reach around a second crucial Middle Eastern shipping route, according to Anna Borshchevskaya, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute.