Iran’s parliament research arm warned the country’s power grid could face a 13,640-megawatt summer peak deficit, about 17% of projected demand and roughly a third of the country’s average 2024 electricity load, as war damage deepens chronic power shortages.
The Parliamentary Research Center said in a report on summer electricity supply that the gap between supply and demand at peak consumption is projected to reach 13,640 megawatts under a realistic scenario.
The scale is large even by Iran’s recent blackout standards. The report projects maximum simultaneous supply at about 68,420 megawatts, while peak network demand is expected to exceed 81,000 megawatts. That means the shortfall would amount to nearly one-fifth of available supply at the moment of greatest pressure.
Iran’s electricity consumption has grown steadily for decades, reaching about 347 terawatt-hours in 2024. Its summer peak demand reached around 80,000 megawatts that year, according to official data presented by Iran’s grid management company, showing how close this year’s projected demand is to the country’s recent record levels.
The figures also show why headline power-plant capacity can be misleading. Iranian officials have said installed generation capacity has crossed 100,000 megawatts, but the parliamentary report’s estimate of usable simultaneous supply is far lower, reflecting fuel limits, plant outages, grid constraints and war-related damage.
War damage reshapes electricity balance
The report said the recent war changed both sides of Iran’s electricity balance. Self-supplied power plants taken offline by the conflict removed 4,800 megawatts from supply and disrupted production chains at major industries. At the same time, lower activity in petrochemical and steel sectors reduced part of industrial demand.
That temporary reduction may ease pressure during parts of the summer, but it also points to a fragile balance: if industrial activity recovers, demand for both electricity and gas could rise again.
The report warned that damage to energy infrastructure had reduced gas production capacity to around 600 million cubic meters per day, raising concerns beyond the summer and into the winter, when gas shortages often force power plants, factories and households to compete for supply.
Reduced demand from the petrochemical and steel sectors is expected to keep summer gas consumption between 590 million and 600 million cubic meters a day, easing immediate pressure on power plants.
But the report cautioned that any recovery in industrial output could again strain gas supplies available for electricity generation.
The assessment also warned of a growing evening problem. Solar generation is concentrated during daylight hours, while Iran’s demand often rises again at night as households use cooling systems.
Consumption control seen as key solution
Without stronger demand management, the report said, the country could face larger nighttime shortages than in previous years.
Iran has long faced recurring power cuts, especially in summer, when air conditioning, water demand and industrial consumption push the grid toward its limits.
Sanctions, aging infrastructure, heavy subsidies, underinvestment and management failures have left the system with little margin when temperatures rise.
The report argued that demand control may be more effective than relying only on new power plants.
It estimated that around 60% of summer hours would see electricity shortfalls below 6,000 megawatts, while about 82% of shortage hours would remain below 10,000 megawatts. That means much of the deficit could be reduced through better operation of existing facilities, higher utilization rates and targeted cuts in peak demand.
The center said eliminating most of the imbalance through new generation alone would require roughly 8,000 megawatts of additional capacity.
Instead, it recommended broader demand-side measures, including efficiency improvements, demand response programs, shifting consumption patterns and load-adjustment contracts.
Tehran’s unveiling of a towering statue depicting the Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling before pre-Islamic Persian King Shapur I has renewed criticism of the Islamic Republic’s appeal to nationalist sentiment following the June war with Israel.
For over forty years, the theocracy purged ancient Persian history from schoolbooks, replacing it with post-Islamic narratives. But after the 12-day conflict with Israel, officials have turned to the distant pre-Islamic past to rally a divided society.
From murals of ancient kings and soldiers to patriotic songs added to Shi’ite mourning ceremonies performed before Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran now embraces imagery once deemed heretical by its own revolutionary ethos.
'Kneel before Iran' campaign
Tehran’s Revolution (Enghelab) Square was the scene of an unusual spectacle on Friday as officials unveiled a massive bronze statue depicting Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling in submission before Sassanid King Shapur I, commemorating Iran’s victory at the Battle of Edessa (260 AD).
The event was held under the slogan “Kneel before Iran,” part of what authorities describe as a campaign to project “national unity and historical pride” following the June war with Israel.
Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, a staunch ultraconservative, said on X: “Enmity with Great Iran can only end in kneeling before this historic nation.”
Municipal official Davood Goodarzi said the installation would be accompanied by visual displays depicting “other victories of Iranians over foreign aggressors,” including the defeat of British forces by local commander Rais-Ali Delvari, Mirza Kuchak Khan’s resistance against Russian troops, and Surena’s triumph over Rome at the Battle of Carrhae in 53 BCE.
The goal, Goodarzi said, is “strengthening concepts such as national dignity, social unity, and Iranian identity.”
The statue, he said, would remain temporarily at Revolution Square before being moved to a city gateway “where it will stand as the first emblem of Iran before diplomats and foreign visitors.”
Unveiled women were allowed to attend the unveiling ceremony—an uncommon scene at events organized by Tehran’s ultra-hardline municipality.
The turn to the pre-Islamic past
The sharp reversal also recalls remarks once made by Khamenei. In a 2011 speech, he asserted that “all the great military victories of this nation came after Islam,” dismissing pre-Islamic accounts as “things that are not documented.”
In 1987, he had said that prophets triumphed over kings such as Cyrus and that “nothing remains of these monarchs in history but names remembered with derision.”
Nevertheless, pro-government social media accounts have now gone so far as to circulate posters equating Khamenei himself with Shapur, showing him standing with a staff as Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump kneel before him. The caption reads: “You will kneel before Iran.”
'Hypocrisy'
Pro-government figures have hailed the move as a patriotic success. Conservative political reporter Hossein Saremi posted: “Today’s grand Iranian gathering showed that people and the state share one essence: Iran itself. Nothing can take our homeland away.”
Others, however, called the spectacle “hypocrisy.” Journalist Gholamhossein Pashaei wrote on X: “Every year you close Pasargadae to stop people from celebrating Cyrus Day, yet you unveil Shapur’s statue in Enghelab Square with drums and fireworks during Fatimiyya (mourning period)!”
Dissident commentator Hamid Asafi called the ceremony “a perfect snapshot of the Islamic Republic’s contradictions.”
On Telegram he wrote: “A week ago they closed Cyrus’s tomb out of fear of the crowds, and now they glorify Shapur in the same breath. The Islamic Republic fears living history but poses for selfies with its corpse.”
He added: “They know people no longer respond to rosaries and sermons. That’s why they’ve brought history back to the stage—in a controlled costume. If they can’t erase the past, they’ll try to own it.”
The irony deepened as UNESCO formally recognized Cyrus’s Charter as one of the earliest human-rights documents.
President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X: “Iran, the cradle of dialogue, justice, and coexistence, can still inspire peace today.”
Users swiftly replied, questioning how such pride could coexist with a government that blocks access to Cyrus’s tomb each year to those wishing to visit it on his birthday.
