Iran, the United States and their Omani mediators struck cautiously optimistic notes on Tuesday after a second round of nuclear talks in Geneva, with officials on all sides pointing to progress while emphasizing that significant hurdles remain.
The United States and Iran have begun indirect talks in Geneva on Tuesday under Omani mediation, with the threat of military action hanging over diplomacy and both sides still far apart on uranium enrichment and missiles.
Turkey’s foreign minister has warned that expanding nuclear talks with Iran to include its ballistic missile program and regional activities would risk triggering another war, even as Washington continues to press for a broader agreement.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes only direct engagement with US President Donald Trump can prevent a limited nuclear deal with Iran—and turn this moment into a decisive blow against the Islamic Republic.
The message coming out of Tehran on the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution was that Iran is willing to negotiate with the United States, though it remains unclear how its declared “red lines” can be squared with Washington’s demands.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hastily advanced trip to Washington this week underscores the rising stakes surrounding renewed diplomacy between Iran and the United States.
Tehran appears to be speaking in two voices about diplomacy with Washington: one calibrated for foreign capitals, the other aimed inward, shaped by fear, factionalism, and propaganda.
Iran’s foreign minister said on Sunday that Tehran’s right to enrich uranium on its own soil must be recognized for nuclear talks with the United States to succeed, two days after the two sides held indirect discussions in Muscat aimed at testing whether diplomacy can be revived.
As Iranian and US negotiators met in Oman on Friday to discuss the framework for renewed talks, Friday prayer leaders across Iran used their sermons to dismiss the process, expressing near-uniform pessimism about the prospects for diplomacy.
As Iran and the US convene in Oman for bilateral talks, reports suggest Muslim-majority states are pushing for a framework that would include a non-aggression pact, curbs on Iran’s nuclear program and its arms support for allied militants, and reassurances on its missiles.
A day of confusion, warnings and behind-the-scenes maneuvering ended with a fresh announcement that US–Iran talks were back on track, underscoring how fragile and contested the diplomatic process remains on the eve of a possible meeting.
As hopes for talks with the United States flicker and fade, Iran’s chronic factional infighting once again appears to have torpedoed a diplomatic opening—even before it properly began.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio doubled down on Washington’s demand that any talks with Iran extend well beyond its nuclear program, while expressing doubt that negotiations would ultimately succeed.
Monday’s cautious optimism about renewed US–Iran diplomacy took several blows on Tuesday, as Tehran reportedly signaled fresh conditions for talks and Iranian and American forces clashed at sea.
The reappearance of diplomacy between Washington and Tehran is being shadowed by limited but dangerous military showdowns, revealing how narrow the space for negotiation has become in the absence of trust.
Conflicting voices in Tehran on the competing prospects of war and diplomacy with Washington may be deliberate, but they more likely reflect an absence of consensus at the top.
Regional powers including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Oman are trying to bring Iran and the United States to talks in Istanbul on Friday, officials say, to stave off war – starting with Tehran’s nuclear file despite a wide gap over US demands on missiles and allied militias.
Tehran appears to have taken the US military buildup near Iran seriously, but shows no sign of softening its rhetoric or accepting Washington’s terms while it explores limited diplomatic channels.
President Donald Trump’s response to Iran’s recent unrest appears to reflect a strategy of gunboat diplomacy: the use of military pressure, rhetorical escalation, and economic coercion to extract concessions without committing to war or formal regime change.
As the threat of attack by the United States looms, Iranian commentators are sounding the alarm on the existential danger they see to Tehran, with one former envoy even saying US President Donald Trump should be hosted for talks.
Iranians’ chants against the Islamic Republic—muted for now by brute force—are viewed in Turkey not as a struggle for freedom but as a geopolitical risk from migration and militancy.
Russia likely views Iran’s mass anti-regime protests with deep unease, but may ultimately adapt just as it did in Syria to preserve influence whether the Islamic Republic survives or a new political order emerges.