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INSIGHT

Tehran unsure whether Trump is bluffing or preparing for war

Maryam Sinaiee
Maryam Sinaiee

Iran International

May 20, 2026, 04:51 GMT+1
US president Donald Trump speaks to reporters in Washington D.C., May 18, 2026
US president Donald Trump speaks to reporters in Washington D.C., May 18, 2026

President Donald Trump’s claim that he postponed a planned military strike on Iran has deepened uncertainty in Tehran, where officials and analysts remain divided over whether Washington is bluffing, buying time or preparing for another round of strikes.

Trump said Monday he had postponed an attack planned for Tuesday, before warning the United States remained ready to hit Iran hard.

Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, wrote on X that “the United States says it has temporarily halted an attack on Iran to give diplomacy a chance, while simultaneously speaking of readiness for a large-scale strike at any moment. This means calling a threat an opportunity for peace.”

He added that the Islamic Republic was prepared to confront “any military aggression” and that “surrender has no meaning” for Iran.

Mohsen Rezaei, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader and former commander of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), accused Trump of setting and then canceling military deadlines in an attempt to force Iran into submission. He warned that Iran’s armed forces would “force America into retreat and surrender.”

Gharibabadi later told members of parliament that Iran’s latest proposal to Washington included demands such as recognition of Iran’s right to uranium enrichment, lifting the US naval blockade, releasing frozen Iranian assets and ending sanctions. He did not provide details about Washington’s response.

Iranian digital outlet Avash Media cited “a source close to the negotiating team” as claiming that Washington had accepted some Iranian conditions, including ending regional conflicts and establishing a reconstruction fund.

On Tuesday, Vice President JD Vance said Washington and Tehran had made “a lot of progress” in talks and that neither side wanted to see a return to war.

Jalal Sadatian, a regional affairs analyst, told the website Fararu that the comments should be viewed “within the framework of the current Iran-US relationship, which is in a phase marked by political attrition and pressure tactics.”

“There is a perception in Tehran that the United States, for now, is using military threats more for political leverage than because it is truly ready for war,” he said.

“Tehran’s calculation is that if it makes major concessions now under maximum pressure, this model could later expand to issues such as missile capabilities and regional influence,” Sadatian added. “Therefore, Iran’s current policy is a combination of restraint, maintaining readiness and continuing protracted negotiations.”

Reformist journalist Ahmad Zeidabadi questioned Trump’s credibility, writing that if the US president’s account was accurate, then “one must seriously doubt the minimum level of rational calculation in him.”

“Does Trump not know what historic catastrophe restarting the war would bring to the entire Persian Gulf region?” Zeidabadi asked. “Was he planning to resume war without consulting allied leaders?”

Still, several analysts and conservative media outlets warned that the possibility of military escalation remains high.

The conservative newspaper Khorasan, which is close to parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, argued that Washington may seek to “unlock negotiations through a limited but effective strike.”

Ehsan Movahedian, a professor of international relations at Allameh Tabataba’i University, told Fararu that “the probability of war in the coming days is very high,” adding that even if conflict does not erupt next week, “that does not mean the danger has disappeared.”

Some Iranian political and media figures argued that the postponement may have had little to do with regional interventions and more to do with operational difficulties.

Ali Gholhaki, a commentator close to Ghalibaf, wrote that “the reason for delaying the attack on Iran appears to be something other than requests from Arab leaders; the United States and Israel are still not certain they can strike their key targets.”

Journalist Davoud Modarresian suggested Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi’s extended visit to Iran could be linked to intelligence-gathering efforts.

“Under the pretext of sending messages, they may be trying to track and identify the locations of leaders and commanders,” he wrote.

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Tehran’s 'Kneel Before Iran' statue rekindles debate over nationalist turn

Nov 9, 2025, 22:00 GMT+0
•
Maryam Sinaiee
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An illustration showing an ancient Iranian soldier and a Revolutionary Guard member holding a weapon together, displayed during a November 7 ceremony in Tehran where a statue of pre-Islamic Persian King Shapur I was unveiled.

Tehran’s unveiling of a towering statue depicting the Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling before pre-Islamic Persian King Shapur I has renewed criticism of the Islamic Republic’s appeal to nationalist sentiment following the June war with Israel.

For over forty years, the theocracy purged ancient Persian history from schoolbooks, replacing it with post-Islamic narratives. But after the 12-day conflict with Israel, officials have turned to the distant pre-Islamic past to rally a divided society.

From murals of ancient kings and soldiers to patriotic songs added to Shi’ite mourning ceremonies performed before Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran now embraces imagery once deemed heretical by its own revolutionary ethos.

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The statue unveiled in Tehran's Revolution Square

'Kneel before Iran' campaign

Tehran’s Revolution (Enghelab) Square was the scene of an unusual spectacle on Friday as officials unveiled a massive bronze statue depicting Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling in submission before Sassanid King Shapur I, commemorating Iran’s victory at the Battle of Edessa (260 AD).

The event was held under the slogan “Kneel before Iran,” part of what authorities describe as a campaign to project “national unity and historical pride” following the June war with Israel.

Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, a staunch ultraconservative, said on X: “Enmity with Great Iran can only end in kneeling before this historic nation.”

Municipal official Davood Goodarzi said the installation would be accompanied by visual displays depicting “other victories of Iranians over foreign aggressors,” including the defeat of British forces by local commander Rais-Ali Delvari, Mirza Kuchak Khan’s resistance against Russian troops, and Surena’s triumph over Rome at the Battle of Carrhae in 53 BCE.

The goal, Goodarzi said, is “strengthening concepts such as national dignity, social unity, and Iranian identity.”

The statue, he said, would remain temporarily at Revolution Square before being moved to a city gateway “where it will stand as the first emblem of Iran before diplomats and foreign visitors.”

Unveiled women were allowed to attend the unveiling ceremony—an uncommon scene at events organized by Tehran’s ultra-hardline municipality.

The turn to the pre-Islamic past

The sharp reversal also recalls remarks once made by Khamenei. In a 2011 speech, he asserted that “all the great military victories of this nation came after Islam,” dismissing pre-Islamic accounts as “things that are not documented.”

In 1987, he had said that prophets triumphed over kings such as Cyrus and that “nothing remains of these monarchs in history but names remembered with derision.”

Nevertheless, pro-government social media accounts have now gone so far as to circulate posters equating Khamenei himself with Shapur, showing him standing with a staff as Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump kneel before him. The caption reads: “You will kneel before Iran.”

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Image circulating by hardliners on social media

'Hypocrisy'

Pro-government figures have hailed the move as a patriotic success. Conservative political reporter Hossein Saremi posted: “Today’s grand Iranian gathering showed that people and the state share one essence: Iran itself. Nothing can take our homeland away.”

Others, however, called the spectacle “hypocrisy.” Journalist Gholamhossein Pashaei wrote on X: “Every year you close Pasargadae to stop people from celebrating Cyrus Day, yet you unveil Shapur’s statue in Enghelab Square with drums and fireworks during Fatimiyya (mourning period)!”

Dissident commentator Hamid Asafi called the ceremony “a perfect snapshot of the Islamic Republic’s contradictions.”

On Telegram he wrote: “A week ago they closed Cyrus’s tomb out of fear of the crowds, and now they glorify Shapur in the same breath. The Islamic Republic fears living history but poses for selfies with its corpse.”

He added: “They know people no longer respond to rosaries and sermons. That’s why they’ve brought history back to the stage—in a controlled costume. If they can’t erase the past, they’ll try to own it.”

The irony deepened as UNESCO formally recognized Cyrus’s Charter as one of the earliest human-rights documents.

President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X: “Iran, the cradle of dialogue, justice, and coexistence, can still inspire peace today.”

Users swiftly replied, questioning how such pride could coexist with a government that blocks access to Cyrus’s tomb each year to those wishing to visit it on his birthday.