Saudi Arabia may unveil Red Sea coalition to counter Iran-backed groups - Al-Monitor

On July 29, the administration's official daily, Iran, published four opinion pieces by representatives of four moderate and conservative parties, presenting the collection as evidence of a new political accord.

The paper argued that "the traditional pattern of political competition between Iran's two major blocs has fundamentally shifted," concluding that "what seems to have 'ended' is not reformism or principlism as political identities, but the confrontational style of rivalry that had turned these blocs into near-enemies."

The optimism sits uneasily with political reality.

Hardliners routinely accuse President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of betraying the country because of their relatively pragmatic approach to negotiations and the confrontation with the United States, while state television, dominated by ultraconservatives, has repeatedly censored key remarks by both men.

Nor did the initiative reflect the country's current balance of political power. The contributors came from four parties that have largely been sidelined since at least 2020 and no longer reflect the real distribution of influence in presidential or parliamentary politics.

The ultraconservative Paydari Party, arguably the most influential ideological force in today's parliament, and the centrist Executives of Reconstruction Party were both absent, whether by exclusion or choice.

The paper nonetheless argued that "the pressures of war and national security crises pushed both sides toward cooperation, reducing polarization and enabling decisions that required broad consensus."

Yet it also acknowledged that Paydari—described as "a small but loud minority" enjoying disproportionate influence through state broadcasting—stood outside the initiative.

Rather than demonstrating broad political consensus, the exercise illustrated its limits. Three of the four essays were written not by party leaders but by deputies or senior members of organisations that have played only marginal roles in Iranian politics for nearly two decades.

The four contributors differed in emphasis but converged on a common message.

Mahmoud Vaezi argued that, amid hybrid warfare and economic pressure, Iran needed rationality, restraint and an end to factional competition. Alireza Khojastehpour called for what he described as "revolutionary rationality." Mohammad Sadegh Javadi-Hessar framed moderation as a religious imperative, while Mohammad Ali Amani argued that resilience depended less on military power than on social cohesion.

Collectively, the essays portrayed moderation as a strategic necessity rooted in political experience, revolutionary reasoning and religious ethics. Extremism was presented as corrosive, narrowing political choices, deepening polarization and eroding public trust.

Yet the initiative may reveal less about the emergence of a new political consensus than about the administration's effort to reinforce its case for a more moderate course.

Facing the prospect of war, worsening economic pressures and relentless attacks from powerful hardline factions, Pezeshkian appears to be seeking validation for a strategy that many of the country's most influential political actors remain unwilling to embrace.

The country's most influential ultraconservative factions, their media allies and an IRGC that increasingly acts as a political institution in its own right were absent from the discussion.

They are also the actors least likely to look to the government's flagship newspaper for lessons in moderation.

As Trump prepared to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Tuesday, he again warned that if Tehran refused to reach a nuclear deal, the United States would "finish the job."

The question became more urgent after Iran's surprise strike on US forces in Jordan—the Islamic Republic's first preemptive attack of the war rather than a retaliatory one—prompted Trump to declare the United States would "beat the fu*king sh*t out of" Iran.

"It's not just the nuclear program," said retired Admiral Robert Harward, a former deputy commander of US Central Command, arguing that Iran must lose not only its ability to build a nuclear weapon but also its capacity to threaten the region through missiles, drones and proxy forces.

Harward, a retired US Navy SEAL who lived in Iran before the 1979 revolution, said any lasting solution would require dismantling Tehran's broader military architecture, securing freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and limiting its ability to project force across the Middle East.

"I think when President Trump says 'finish the job,' he does mean something beyond that," he said.

Trump has never publicly defined the phrase, leaving it open to a range of military and political interpretations. While some see it as shorthand for permanently dismantling Iran's nuclear programme, others argue it points to a broader effort to weaken Tehran's ability to threaten its neighbours and rebuild after the war.

Blaise Misztal, vice president for policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), argued that Iran's nuclear programme is ultimately a symptom rather than the underlying problem.

"So long as that regime is in power, we're going to continue to be under threat," he said.

Harward went further, arguing that "a change of government in Tehran has to be the ultimate end state" because only a different government could permanently redirect Iran's resources away from military confrontation and toward rebuilding the country.

Neither expert presented regime change as current US policy. Trump himself has stopped short of making that case, even as his rhetoric has grown increasingly aggressive.

Earlier this week, Trump suggested the United States could strike Iran's bridges, infrastructure and power plants while insisting he wanted to avoid harming the Iranian people.

Harward argued those comments point not simply to an expanded bombing campaign but to a strategy of economic and military isolation.

"I'd like to see them shut down the airspace. I'd like to see them shut down the borders," he said, arguing that restricting the state's ability to move goods, people and military equipment could prove as consequential as direct military strikes.

Harward also raised the possibility of limited ground operations. Distinguishing them from the large-scale invasions of Iraq or Afghanistan, he described highly targeted missions to seize or destroy specific military objectives as "a very viable option."

The broadest interpretation of Trump's slogan concerns the future of the Islamic Republic itself. For now, however, his repeated promise to "finish the job" remains deliberately open-ended.

Whether it ultimately means dismantling Iran's nuclear programme, crippling its military capabilities or creating the conditions for political change may depend less on Trump's rhetoric than on how the war itself unfolds.

The Treasury Department said the measures target two Iranian firms it accused of helping the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) extort commercial vessels by requiring them to purchase maritime insurance to transit the strait, alongside eight shipping companies operating tankers that transported Iranian crude oil and petroleum products.

The sanctions also block eight vessels that Washington said carried millions of barrels of Iranian oil, mostly to China, as part of what it describes as Tehran's "shadow fleet" used to circumvent international sanctions.

"With its economy in freefall and inflation in the triple digits, the regime is desperate for cash," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.

"The United States will not allow Iran to hold global commerce hostage or use international shipping to finance the IRGC's terrorism, aggression, and repression."

According to the Treasury, the Persian Gulf Marine Insurance Company and HormuzSafe Marine Services Authority broker IRGC-approved insurance policies for commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including payments in digital assets such as Bitcoin designed to evade sanctions.

The department said the scheme allows Tehran to generate revenue while tightening its control over shipping through the waterway.

On Wednesday, the IRGC Navy said it had "targeted and stopped" three oil tankers after they ignored warnings and used what it described as an unsafe route through the Strait of Hormuz.

It did not identify the vessels or disclose their ownership or destination, but warned that what it called "illegal interventions and orders" by the United States would not go unanswered.

Treasury also sanctioned eight shipping companies linked to tankers transporting Iranian crude oil and petroleum products.

It said it has now sanctioned more than 100 vessels tied to Iran's shadow fleet since the beginning of the year, describing the network as a key source of revenue for Tehran despite existing sanctions.

The Strait of Hormuz has become one of the central flashpoints in the conflict in recent weeks.

Iran has sought to tighten control over commercial shipping by introducing mandatory insurance requirements, challenging alternative transit routes and stopping vessels it says violate its navigation rules, while US-led naval forces have stepped up operations to keep the waterway open.

Roughly a fifth of global oil consumption normally passes through the strait.

The latest measures were imposed under Executive Order 13902, which targets Iran's petroleum and petrochemical sectors as part of the Trump administration's renewed "maximum pressure" campaign.

Iraq's Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces said at least 20 of its members were killed and 32 wounded in the strikes, which US Central Command said targeted sites used by groups it accused of carrying out more than 30 drone attacks on US forces and Saudi oil infrastructure over the previous 72 hours.

Iran's consulate general in Karbala denied reports that four IRGC members were killed in the strikes, saying they hit an unoccupied building and caused no casualties.

The operation also marked the first time Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledged taking part in US military action against Iran-backed groups, raising the prospect of a broader regional confrontation.

Iraq's presidency condemned the strikes on the paramilitaries as "an unacceptable attack" on the country's sovereignty, while the prime minister's office urged all sides to avoid escalation and convened an emergency security meeting.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi cancelled a planned meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman following the strikes, Reuters reported, citing three people familiar with the matter.

Trump said Washington had coordinated the operation with the Iraqi government. Baghdad did not directly address that claim but reiterated that only its own government had the authority to respond to attacks on Iraqi territory.

Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned the strikes as an attempt by the United States and Israel to widen the regional conflict. Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, one of the Iran-backed groups in Iraq, warned that US and Saudi forces would pay a "heavy price."

Iran resumes military action

The IRGC said it launched ballistic missiles at a US air base and Central Command facility in Jordan on Tuesday. CENTCOM said all the missiles were intercepted, while Jordan's military said it downed five missiles launched from Iran early Wednesday.

Trump vowed a forceful response.

"We'll be hitting them hard. They're going to get a beating," he told Fox News, while adding that indirect talks with Tehran were continuing.

At the same time, the IRGC Navy said it stopped three oil tankers after they ignored warnings and used what it described as an unsafe route through the Strait of Hormuz. It did not identify the vessels or report whether anyone was injured.

Oil prices rose more than 7%, pushing Brent crude above $90 a barrel as renewed fighting deepened concerns over already restricted shipping through Hormuz and the Red Sea.

The latest exchanges underscored the increasingly regional character of the war.

Even as Washington and Tehran kept indirect diplomatic channels open, fighting spread across Jordan, Iraq and the Strait of Hormuz, raising fresh doubts about whether diplomacy can keep pace with the military escalation.

Hours earlier, she was at the front of the crowd, chanting “Long live the Shah,” kicking away a tear-gas canister and urging fellow protesters not to be afraid.

It was Yalda's second consecutive day protesting. On January 8, she had joined demonstrations in the Kanal area of Fardis, west of the Iranian capital, with her father and younger sister before returning home after heavy tear gas left her father's eyes burning.

At 4 p.m. the following day, Yalda told her family it was time to go back.

“We have to get ready and return to the streets,” she said. “We have to join the protests.”

This time, all four members of the family went together.

The demonstrations were part of nationwide protests that began in late December, during which state security forces killed tens of thousands of protesters across Iran.

At the protest, Yalda moved towards the front of the crowd.

“Don't be afraid,” she told fellow protesters as tear gas was fired at them. “There aren't many of them.”

Masked security forces then arrived on motorcycles and opened fire. A bullet struck Yalda's leg.

“My leg is burning. I can't walk,” she told her father.

He put an arm around her and tried to help her keep moving.

“Try to go a little further so they don't do anything to you,” he said.

As the security forces continued firing, Yalda's father tried to shield his family with his body. When he looked back, he saw her face covered in blood.

According to her family, eight bullets had struck her from behind, across her back and shoulder.

Her father carried her to hospital, but she died at the scene. Her body was transferred to Behesht-e Sakineh cemetery and mortuary complex near Karaj before being returned to the family five days later.

The family was warned not to hold a memorial ceremony and pressured to say that protesters, rather than security forces, had killed her — an account they rejected.

The phone case

Behind Yalda's phone case was a photograph she had carried since 2022: Nika Shakarami.

Nika, also 16, became one of the defining symbols of Iran's Woman, Life, Freedom movement after she was killed during the 2022 protests sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini following her detention for an alleged violation of Iran's mandatory hijab laws.

As Yalda prepared to return to the streets that January, Nika's story remained on her mind.

When her parents asked how they were supposed to cope if anything happened to her, Yalda pointed to the photograph.

“What did Nika's parents do?” she replied. “You should do the same. I am going to the streets to fight for freedom and a better future.”