Efforts to end the war with Iran and restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained deadlocked Sunday, as military pressure continued at sea and the Iran-backed Houthis carried out increasingly deadly attacks inside Saudi Arabia.
Iran said the United States had accepted some of seven conditions it presented for reopening the strait but that Washington's response was insufficient, leaving the two sides without agreement on renewed negotiations or unrestricted passage through the waterway.
“The US has agreed to some of Iran’s seven conditions, but we consider its response INADEQUATE,” Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said in a post on X. “Iranian diplomacy has changed and there will be no return to the status quo ante.”
Iran presented the seven-condition proposal during the UN General Assembly, offering to restore normal maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if its conditions were met. The United States later responded through Qatari intermediaries.
The latest exchange comes days after Axios reported that the Pentagon had instructed US Central Command to complete preparations for the possible resumption of major combat operations against Iran. President Donald Trump subsequently said the United States would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections and described talks with Tehran as “productive.”
Rezaei, however, said Washington still needed to clarify parts of its response and that Iran would not reopen the strait to the United States or resume negotiations until its conditions were met.
Pressure builds around Hormuz
The diplomatic impasse is playing out most directly at sea, where Washington is enforcing its blockade of Iran as Tehran maintains restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
US Central Command said a US fighter jet struck the stern of the Panama-flagged M/V Ocean Molica, also known as the Arika Sun, after the vessel left an Iranian port and ignored repeated warnings as it attempted to breach the blockade.
The strike fully disabled the vessel's propulsion without harming its crew, according to CENTCOM, which warned other commercial vessels approaching Hormuz to comply with blockade instructions.
Iran, for its part, has continued restricting passage through the strait. The IRGC Navy said Sunday that a tanker carrying 750,000 barrels of crude struck a naval mine and caught fire after attempting to use what it described as an unauthorized route despite warnings.
The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency described it as the third tanker to strike a mine in the strait that day.
The incidents come amid a sharp deterioration in shipping security this month. UK Maritime Trade Operations recorded 11 attacks on commercial vessels in the week ending October 9, including 10 in the Strait of Hormuz and one in the Persian Gulf.
Seven of the vessels attacked in the strait sustained only minor damage and continued their transit, UKMTO said. Vessel traffic through Hormuz remained about 75% below pre-conflict levels.
Separate shipping data this week showed tanker attacks had reached their highest weekly level since the Iran war began, with the number of vessels transiting Hormuz falling to its lowest in more than two months.
The disruption has extended well beyond the waterway, pushing up global fuel costs and prompting Washington to seek additional supplies as the Trump administration faces pressure over diesel prices ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
Trump said Friday that Russia had agreed to immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel to US and global markets, with further supplies to follow. His administration also temporarily eased sanctions on Russian fuel to facilitate the arrangement.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended the deal Sunday and explicitly linked it to the confrontation with Iran, saying Tehran was the “biggest loser” because its attempts to create choke points in the Strait of Hormuz and diesel supplies had failed.
“We're going to do it with all the legal authorities we have,” Bessent told Fox News, saying the agreement would help bring diesel prices down.
Fighting intensifies between Saudi Arabia and Houthis
The Iran war's Yemen front has intensified as Saudi Arabia expands military operations against the Iran-backed Houthis and the group carries out increasingly deadly attacks inside the kingdom.
A Houthi attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh Saturday killed 13 people and wounded more than 300, the deadliest attack in Saudi Arabia in more than a decade. The airport was attacked again Sunday, when a projectile struck Terminal 4, killing a Pakistani resident and injuring 11 people, according to Saudi aviation authorities. Saudi air defenses also intercepted a cruise missile near the airport.
Saturday's strike followed two earlier attacks on the Riyadh airport during the week that killed four people, one of which also heavily damaged a Saudi commercial aircraft parked on the tarmac.
The latest escalation followed a Houthi offensive last month that seized strategic territory along Yemen’s Red Sea coast near the Bab al-Mandab strait, a critical shipping route and an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi-backed forces have since intensified their campaign against the Houthis. The Saudi-led coalition said it had struck 136 Houthi targets, including sites linked to the group’s ballistic missile capabilities. Yemen’s internationally recognized government forces separately said they had carried out 1,732 strikes and “neutralized” more than 900 Houthi fighters during Operation Dawn of Yemen.
The escalation has also raised the prospect of deeper US involvement. Trump said Saturday that Washington was considering joining Saudi strikes against the Houthis. The United States is already providing Saudi Arabia with intelligence support but has stopped short of the direct military assistance sought by Riyadh and its Yemeni allies.
The attacks have spread beyond the capital. The Houthis said Sunday they also targeted King Fahd International Airport in Dammam and two Saudi Aramco facilities. There was no immediate Saudi confirmation of those attacks.
The intensified attacks have come as Saudi Arabia steps up its military involvement in Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition has carried out large-scale strikes against Houthi positions, while Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces have launched a ground offensive against the group.
The coalition said earlier that 136 Houthi targets had been struck, including sites linked to the group's ballistic missile capabilities. Yemen's internationally recognized government forces separately said they had carried out 1,732 strikes and “neutralized” more than 900 Houthi fighters during Operation Dawn of Yemen.
The growing threat to Saudi aviation has begun prompting wider precautions. The US Federal Aviation Administration warned American airlines Sunday to exercise caution when flying to or over Saudi Arabia because of military activity and navigation-system interference, while the Houthis renewed warnings against using Saudi airports.
Diplomatic channels between Tehran and Riyadh have nevertheless remained open. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke Sunday about the fighting and efforts to reduce the confrontation, with Araghchi saying Iran was prepared to help facilitate dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
That contact has not altered the broader Iran-US impasse. Washington and Tehran remain divided over the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, leaving restrictions on shipping and fighting on the Saudi-Yemen front unresolved despite continuing diplomatic contacts.
An attack by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport drew condemnation from European leaders, the United Nations and regional governments on Sunday.
The attack on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport prompted warnings to travelers, expressions of solidarity with Saudi Arabia and calls for an end to attacks on civilian infrastructure.
International condemnation of Houthi attack
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Iran-backed Houthi forces are destabilizing regional transport and energy infrastructure.
“These attacks by Iran’s proxies are pushing the region into a spiral of violence,” von der Leyen said.
She described the airport strike as a dangerous escalation and called for an immediate end to attacks on civilians.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas also condemned the strike, calling it an “appalling act of terror.”
“There can be no justification for indiscriminate attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure,” Kallas said.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for an immediate halt to attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure.
“Attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure are a violation of international law,” Guterres said.
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul described the strike as “a terrorist act against Saudi Arabia and civil aviation,” while British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband urged British nationals to avoid Riyadh airport and follow Saudi authorities' instructions.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni censured the attack and expressed solidarity with Saudi Arabia and the victims' families.
“Attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure are unacceptable and must stop,” Meloni wrote on X.
Meloni said Italy would continue working with regional partners to promote stability and freedom of navigation.
France also condemned the attack, describing it as “heinous” and expressing its “total solidarity” with Saudi Arabia, the French Foreign Ministry said on Sunday.
France would continue supporting Saudi Arabia in defending its territory and infrastructure, including through its military assistance, the ministry said. It also called on the Houthis to immediately stop attacks and provocations destabilizing the region.
Russia also condemned the attack on Riyadh's international airport, Interfax news agency reported on Sunday.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney condemned the attack and offered condolences to the families of those killed.
“There can be no justification for attacks on civilian infrastructure,” Carney said.
The Arab League and Syria also condemned the strike. Syria's Foreign Ministry said a Syrian citizen had been killed and called for international action to prevent further attacks on civilian facilities.
Pakistan reaffirmed its commitment to Saudi Arabia's security under the two countries' joint defense agreement.
“Pakistan stands in unwavering solidarity with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, its leadership and brotherly people,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said.
The Houthis subsequently renewed their warning to airlines, airport workers and travelers against using Saudi airports, saying Saudi Arabia bore responsibility for failed interceptions.
Iranian officials warn of further military action
Separately, Iranian officials warned against further attacks on Iran and reiterated threats over the Strait of Hormuz.
An adviser to the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said that any new attack involving missiles or aircraft would trigger a stronger Iranian response.
“Any provocation or attack with missiles or aircraft will be met with a heavier and crushing response,” Mohammad Reza Naghdi said on Sunday.
Iranian Army Deputy Coordinator Habibollah Sayyari said the military had previously struck vessels and remained prepared to do so again.
“We defended firmly and will continue to do so,” Sayyari said. “Wherever necessary, we will act to strike the enemy.”
Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said that Iran's response to any new military action would differ from its previous responses.
“Our response in the 40-day war was different from the 12-day war, and we hope our adversaries will show some rationality,” Gharibabadi said.
Gharibabadi also described the Strait of Hormuz as an Iranian waterway and said the country would use it as an instrument against its adversaries.
Lawmaker Hassan Ghashghavi said support for reviewing Iran's nuclear doctrine was growing among officials, experts and the public.
Ghashghavi also argued that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz was strengthening and that the waterway could not reopen until the Islamic Republic's conditions were met.
Separately, the newspaper Khorasan, which is close to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, wrote that Washington and Israel had already decided to launch another war and that recent diplomatic exchanges were unlikely to alter that decision.
Nuclear dispute and maritime pressure continue
Atomic Energy Organization of Iran chief Mohammad Eslami criticized international institutions and the International Atomic Energy Agency for their response to attacks on Iranian nuclear and non-nuclear facilities.
“The silence and selective approach of international institutions and the IAEA toward direct attacks on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear and non-nuclear facilities represent an obvious and disastrous contradiction in the international system,” Eslami said.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi separately maintained that US-Israeli strikes on Iranian oil and energy infrastructure had created environmental hazards, including the possible contamination of air, soil and water.
Maritime developments added another dimension to the day's security concerns.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported an encounter involving a tanker and military forces in the Gulf of Oman, hours after the US military announced that it had struck a vessel attempting to breach its naval blockade of Iran.
The agency advised vessels to remain alert as authorities examined the circumstances.
The international condemnation of the Houthi attack on Riyadh airport came alongside renewed threats from the Houthis and Iranian officials, raising concerns about further attacks on civilian infrastructure and commercial shipping across the region.
The US blockade and tighter sanctions enforcement are cutting into Iran’s oil income and targeting financial networks that sustain the Islamic Republic, but may still fall short of forcing Tehran into concessions, experts said at an Iran International town hall in Washington.
The discussion, hosted by Fardad Farahzad, brought together Kerri Bitsoff, a former senior official at the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC); Patrick Clawson, the Morningstar senior fellow at the Washington Institute; and Mohammad Machine-Chian, a senior economist and analyst at Iran International.
“The thing about sanctions, if they’re on the books but not enforced, they only hurt the people,” Bitsoff said, arguing that the current US campaign differed from previous rounds by focusing more heavily on enforcement and the financial intermediaries sustaining Iran’s economy.
Blockade bites
Iran faces declining oil revenues alongside damage to its energy infrastructure following the war, raising the prospect of severe economic difficulties during the coming winter, Clawson said.
President Masoud Pezeshkian had acknowledged that Iran could not export oil during the initial blockade, according to Clawson, who said the country subsequently sought alternative routes for limited shipments.
Iran had also relied on oil previously stored aboard vessels and in China, but those reserves were approaching exhaustion, he said.
Damage to natural gas infrastructure could compound the difficulties, potentially forcing greater reliance on mazut, a heavily polluting fuel used for electricity generation.
Iran depends on natural gas for approximately 69 percent of its energy requirements, making disruptions particularly consequential for households and industry, Clawson said.
Machine-Chian estimated that between $21 and $23 billion in export proceeds had not returned to Iran and that the blockade could cost the country another $35 billion in oil revenue.
Hitting financial networks sustaining Iran's leadership
The current campaign differs from previous sanctions because Washington is concentrating on enforcement and the intermediaries sustaining Iran's economy rather than simply announcing additional restrictions, Bitsoff said.
She pointed to restrictions imposed by the United Arab Emirates, measures against Iranian airlines and Turkish action against banks connected to Iranian transactions.
Such measures could influence officials and business figures whose continued support for the Islamic Republic depends on financial privileges and access to international markets.
Earlier sanctions had often pushed legitimate commerce underground while allowing networks connected to the Revolutionary Guards to profit, Bitsoff said.
Machine-Chian described the emergence of wealthy intermediaries, sometimes called sanctions merchants, who benefited from moving Iranian oil and money through opaque arrangements.
Those networks subsequently became obstacles to negotiations and economic normalization because their commercial interests depended on maintaining the existing system, he said.
Machine-Chian distinguished between sanctions that impose prolonged hardship without producing results and measures designed to achieve specific objectives within a foreseeable period.
The loss of the UAE, Machine-Chian added, as a major commercial and financial intermediary has further complicated Iran's position.
Dubai previously provided an important channel for Iranian transactions, but restrictions have forced businesses to seek alternatives through Turkey, Pakistan and Afghanistan, Machine-Chian said.
Those routes, he said, have limited capacity and cannot quickly replace the financial infrastructure previously available through the Emirates.
China and regional allies face financial constraints
China remains Iran's principal oil customer, but its commercial relationship offers fewer advantages to the Islamic Republic than commonly assumed, Bitsoff said.
Independent Chinese refineries purchase Iranian crude at substantial discounts, while payments in yuan often remain in China and are largely available for purchasing Chinese goods.
Major Chinese banks generally avoid Iranian transactions, leaving smaller intermediaries to facilitate much of the remaining trade, she said.
The blockade also allows Washington to restrict Iranian oil exports without directly confronting major Chinese financial institutions, Clawson said.
Targeting those institutions could provoke Chinese retaliation affecting broader US economic interests.
The financial pressure is also affecting Iran's regional allies.
Hezbollah has struggled to maintain basic financial obligations and social support programs since the blockade began, Bitsoff said.
Machine-Chian argued that Iran's relationships with allied armed groups had become increasingly transactional, making continued financial assistance essential to sustaining their loyalty.
Political survival and prospects for negotiations
Despite the mounting pressure, the panelists differed over whether the Islamic Republic would ultimately accept Washington's demands.
Economic hardship alone was unlikely to persuade Iran's leadership to abandon its objectives, Bitsoff said.
Instead sustained pressure could influence members of the security apparatus whose loyalty depends on salaries, privileges and expectations of continued stability.
Clawson considered negotiated concessions possible, pointing to previous occasions when Iran reversed positions it had presented as nonnegotiable.
He suggested Iran could accept a three-year suspension of uranium enrichment, particularly because its facilities had been damaged and were not operational.
Machine-Chian was more skeptical, arguing that abandoning regional ambitions and nuclear objectives would challenge central elements of the Islamic Republic's political identity.
The blockade's sustainability also remains a concern because maintaining naval operations places substantial demands on American ships, crews and maintenance resources, Bitsoff said, although she expected the operation to continue.
The discussion highlighted a central uncertainty: whether sustained economic pressure will produce concessions, weaken the leadership's support structures or prolong Iran's economic difficulties without fundamentally changing its political direction.
A deadly Houthi attack on Riyadh’s main airport drew a Saudi vow of retaliation on Saturday, as President Donald Trump raised the possibility of joining strikes on the group and resuming attacks on Iran.
Saudi Arabia’s civil aviation authority said 12 people were killed and 309 injured at King Khalid International Airport, making it the kingdom’s deadliest attack since a 2015 mosque bombing in the eastern city of Qatif. An American citizen was among those killed.
The Saudi-led military coalition blamed Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, called the attack a “war crime” and promised a decisive response, without specifying what action it would take. Hours later, it reported that a projectile had landed near King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia.
Trump initially said Washington could join Riyadh in striking the Houthis and resume attacks on Iran. Asked later whether Saudi Arabia could defend itself against the group, he praised the kingdom’s capabilities.
“They're able to defend. The Saudis are good fighters. But I think the attack was a terrible thing,” he said.
The United States, Britain, Germany and Spain warned their citizens to avoid the Riyadh airport. The dead included four Saudis, two Bangladeshis, one American, one Egyptian, one Jordanian, one Syrian, one Palestinian and one Sudanese, according to the Saudi aviation authority.
Trump warns Tehran
The prospect of renewed US attacks on Iran also featured in Trump’s remarks in Tennessee on Saturday, where he accused Iranian leaders of potentially seeking to damage him politically before the November 3 midterm elections.
“They'll probably do a little bit extra before the election thinking it's going to hurt us, but we could end it really quick. They don't know how nice I've been to them.”
Trump called Iran a “lunatic country” and mocked its leaders for repeatedly threatening to kill their enemies.
US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee more directly linked the Saudi attacks to Tehran, arguing that curbing Iranian support was essential to stopping the Houthis.
“Why are the Houthis even capable of doing these things? Because they're funded and they're empowered and they're trained by Iran,” Huckabee told Newsmax.
He described Washington’s confrontation with Tehran as an effort to constrain Iran-backed groups, including the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah.
“Getting the Iranian regime reined in is the only way to stop some of this aggression that we're seeing through the proxies,” he said.
Huckabee also argued that military and economic pressure under Trump had left Iran in its weakest position since 1979.
Calls to stand behind Saudi Arabia
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that an American had been killed in the Riyadh attack and demanded an immediate halt to Houthi strikes. He said Washington stood with Saudi Arabia and offered condolences to the victims’ families.
“These reprehensible attacks demonstrate a blatant disregard for innocent civilian life. They must stop now,” Rubio said.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif invoked his country’s joint defense pact with Riyadh in underscoring Islamabad’s commitment to Saudi security.
“In accordance with the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement and the enduring bonds of brotherhood between our two countries, we reaffirm our steadfast commitment to Saudi Arabia’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and security.”
Former Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani urged Persian Gulf states to unite behind Saudi Arabia against threats he said originated in Yemen but were directed from abroad.
“It has now become clear that Iran is our main enemy,” he wrote on X, marking a sharp change from his advocacy in 2023 of negotiations with Tehran and opposition to confrontation.
Moscow would rather live with an Iranian nuclear weapon than with a change of regime in Tehran, senior Russia scholar Mark Katz told Iran International, arguing that a pro-Western Iran is the outcome Russia actually fears.
Western policy has long treated Iran’s nuclear program as the crisis and the government in Tehran as the address for a deal. Katz, a professor at George Mason University and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said Moscow has not shared that order of priorities.
Russian President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed Moscow’s support for Tehran during talks with President Masoud Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan on Thursday, offering to help end the war.
But during last year’s 12-day war, which focused mainly on Iranian nuclear facilities, “the Russians weren’t very helpful,” Katz said.
They would prefer that Iran not acquire a bomb, but they are “not hysterical about it” in the way Israel and some other states in the region are.
An Iran with nuclear weapons is the outcome US policy has spent years trying to block. Katz said Moscow does not put it in the same category.
“For them, the worst case is a pro-Western Iran.” Even an anti-Western Iran has pursued interests that clash with Russia’s. A government in Tehran aligned with the West, he said, “would have complete contempt for Russia.”
“But they want the regime to survive, that’s for sure.”
A nuclear partnership with limits
Moscow has nevertheless provided Tehran with diplomatic protection over its nuclear program.
On September 17, Russia and China vetoed a UN Security Council resolution extending independent monitoring of sanctions on Iran. The veto blocked the monitoring mechanism, not the sanctions themselves.
Russia also took part in the Iranian nuclear negotiations, and some diplomats credited it with being useful in the 2000s and 2010s, when Moscow and Tehran still differed on the issue.
Katz said that gap has since closed. Russian pressure on the nuclear issue continued through the end of 2021. Once the war in Ukraine began, “the Russians are simply not focusing on the Iranian nuclear issue.”
“I don’t think that they would be that sad if Iran acquired nuclear weapons,” he added, because those weapons would be aimed at others, not at Russia.
Cooperation stops short of defense
The military relationship between Russia and Iran has deepened considerably since Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Iran supplied Russia with Shahed drone technology. Western governments have also accused Tehran of supplying short-range ballistic missiles for use against Ukraine.
The two countries formalized their growing cooperation in a strategic partnership treaty signed in January 2025. But the agreement, despite provisions for closer military cooperation, contains no mutual defense obligation.
“Russia’s assistance is to help Iran target US facilities and, of course, the facilities in other Middle Eastern states,” Katz said. “They’re helping Iran make attacks. They’re not defending Iran from attack.”
With Russian forces tied down in Ukraine, a US and Israeli campaign serious enough to threaten the Iranian government would leave Moscow unsure it could help.
Katz said Russia appears to be betting that no such attack will come, drawing confidence from the lesson of earlier this year: strikes on military and nuclear sites do not, by themselves, change who rules in Tehran.
Why Putin will not trade Tehran away
Katz rejected the idea that Iran is expendable, or a gun for hire. Moscow does not control Tehran, and Iran has done things Russia has disliked. For the most part, though, Iran does what Russia wants because of its hostility to the West.
The outcomes Moscow does not want are the fall of the regime or a Trump visit to Tehran “like Nixon in China.” Iranian fears of being traded away, Katz said, misread Putin.
Saudi Arabia tried that bargain in 2015 and 2016, offering more business in the hope Russia would cut back on Iran. Moscow took the business and kept the Iranian relationship.
“I don’t think there’s anything that we could give him that he would be willing to give up relations with Iran for.”
The US-Iran conflict pulls Washington’s attention away from Ukraine and, if Persian Gulf oil shipments are interrupted, lifts the price at which Russia sells its own crude.
Katz said Putin believes he will prevail in Ukraine and feels no need, for now, to give the West anything.
But if Russia prevailed in Ukraine and the United States pulled back from Europe and the Middle East, a more ambitious Iran could clash with Russian interests in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
“The weaker America’s position in the Middle East, the more likely we’re going to see clashes of interests between Russia and Iran,” Katz argued.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week outlined an expanding campaign of what he called “absolute isolation” against Iran, targeting its oil revenue, overseas financial access and transport routes as Washington seeks to strangle Tehran’s economy.
Speaking to Newsmax on Thursday, Bessent called the United Arab Emirates and Oman good partners in the economic campaign against Iran, adding that Washington was working with Pakistan and Turkey “to cut off all the land routes,” extending its efforts to isolate Tehran beyond oil exports and financial restrictions.
“We did have a maximum pressure campaign. Now we have an absolute isolation campaign and it’s working,” Bessent said.
Bessent said the United States would “probably” seize about $1 billion in Iran-linked cryptocurrency this week, asserting that officials knew where the funds were held.
He also described restrictions on the overseas privileges of Iranian officials, mocking the Revolutionary Guards' access to luxury services and offshore wealth.
“They can’t go see their plastic surgeon in London, their girlfriend in Paris, and their money in Geneva,” he told Newsmax, saying that travel bans and financial restrictions were tightening.
On Thursday, the US Treasury separately sanctioned 17 vessels and their owners in what it described as Iran's remaining shadow fleet. Treasury said the vessels had transported millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and petrochemicals to markets in South and East Asia, and claimed the action had effectively neutralized the vast majority of Iran's remaining shadow fleet network.
The department said the move targeted the vessels and their international support networks. Earlier measures had expanded sanctions against Iranian airlines, railways, automakers and financial intermediaries.
Earlier in the week, Bessent pointed to what he described as signs of the campaign's success. On Monday, he said Operation Economic Outcast was delivering results, citing the rial's record lows and asserting that Iran had loaded no crude oil onto tankers in September.
On Tuesday, he questioned the appointment of Hamid Bovard as Iran's acting oil minister, asking what he would oversee when, according to Bessent, Tehran had not loaded a single barrel of crude since August 25.
Still, Iran’s oil trade has not come to a complete halt. According to energy intelligence firm Kpler, the country continues to export about 250,000 barrels of oil a day overland and sell crude shipped before the blockade.
However, Kpler’s head of crude oil analysis warned that Iran’s revenue from crude oil and condensate exports could dry up entirely by mid-December, for the first time in its history, if the US blockade remains in place.
“Revenues from crude and condensate will drop to zero for the first time ever,” Homayoun Falakshahi told Iran International's Eye for Iran, warning that Tehran could lose between $3 billion and $6 billion in monthly oil income.
The rial traded near 2.7 million per dollar this week despite the central bank injecting up to $2 billion in cash into the Iranian economy. With oil revenue and foreign-currency access shrinking, further enforcement could deepen pressure on imports and the currency.
Operation Economic Outcast, launched on August 24, expanded US sanctions authority over foreign businesses operating in Iran's digital asset, technology, gold, aviation and shipping sectors. Washington also warned that foreign financial institutions facilitating sanctions evasion could lose access to the US financial system. The administration said countries would be given deadlines to terminate identified Iran-related activities.
Bessent described the ultimate objective as forcing Tehran to choose between reintegration into the global economy and what he called “complete global isolation and a subsistence economy.” The campaign is intended to deprive the Islamic Republic and the Revolutionary Guards of the financial resources sustaining their military operations, weapons programs and regional networks.
