Iran International
The mystery surrounding Iran’s new supreme leader may reveal more about the Islamic Republic’s power structure and the role of the Revolutionary Guards than Mojtaba Khamenei himself, analysts said on the Eye for Iran podcast, as Khamenei Jr remains unseen.
When Mojtaba Khamenei was officially announced as Iran's new supreme leader on March 8, the moment that followed was unusual.
There was no televised address to the nation. No appearance before officials or supporters. Instead, a message attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei was read aloud.
Five days after being declared Iran’s new supreme leader, Khamenei still has not appeared publicly or delivered a video message — an absence that has fueled speculation about his condition and about who is actually exercising power inside the Islamic Republic.
But for some analysts, the mystery surrounding Mojtaba Khamenei is less important than what it reveals about how the Iranian system actually functions.
“I suppose we can say Mojtaba Khamenei has become something like Schrödinger’s cat,” historian Dr. Shahram Kholdi said during a panel discussion on , suggesting the new leader appears simultaneously present and absent.
The lack of any public appearance has triggered a range of theories — that he may be injured, that he is being kept hidden for security reasons, or that others are effectively running the system in his name.
Yet regardless of which theory proves correct, analysts say the moment highlights a deeper shift: power inside Iran increasingly appears to rest with the security apparatus.
“This is a textbook case of the tail wagging the dog,” Kholdi said. “The IRGC used to be the tail. Now it’s the one wagging the dog.”
For decades the Islamic Republic has functioned through overlapping networks of clerical authority, political institutions and security forces. But Iranian political analyst Shayan Samii says the balance within that system has steadily shifted toward the Revolutionary Guards.
“In reality, the IRGC is running the show,” Samii said. “These figures who appear in front of the cameras are often the face presented to the public, but the real decisions are made within the security apparatus.”
Samii argues that Mojtaba Khamenei himself has long been closely tied to that structure, acting as a conduit between the office of the supreme leader and the Revolutionary Guards. His sudden elevation to Iran’s highest position — combined with his continued absence from public view — has only made that power dynamic more visible.
“If you are elevated to the highest position in the land, normally you would appear on television,” Samii said. “You would address the nation. The fact that we have not seen that raises serious questions.”
At the same time, developments on the ground may be testing the very institutions that sustain the regime.
Phase Two of the war
Israeli strikes have targeted security checkpoints in Tehran linked to the Basij militia — the paramilitary force responsible for suppressing protests and maintaining internal control.
For former US national security official John Hannah, that shift could prove significant.
“The question is whether this begins to catalyze fractures within the security services,” Hannah said in an interview on Eye for Iran. “Will Basij members begin not showing up to their posts? Will the regime manage to maintain cohesion?”
For authoritarian systems, he noted, the loyalty of the security forces is often decisive.
“One of the crucial elements in bringing down a regime like this is fractures among the people who hold the guns,” Hannah said.
Still, Hannah cautioned that predicting the outcome remains difficult. Authoritarian regimes can appear stable for years before suddenly unraveling.
“It happens slowly, slowly — and then suddenly,” he said.
Israeli analyst Avi Melamed argues that what is unfolding inside Iran may ultimately represent a broader restructuring of power rather than an immediate collapse.
“What we are seeing,” he said, “is a reconfiguration of power.”
That reconfiguration, analysts say, could reshape not only Iran’s internal politics but the strategic balance across the Middle East.
For now, however, the central mystery remains unresolved.
Iran’s new supreme leader has yet to appear publicly.
And as pressure mounts on the regime’s security apparatus, the question facing Iran may be less about where Mojtaba Khamenei is — and more about who truly governs behind him.
You can watch Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on any podcast platform of your choosing.
Tehran’s unveiling of a towering statue depicting the Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling before pre-Islamic Persian King Shapur I has renewed criticism of the Islamic Republic’s appeal to nationalist sentiment following the June war with Israel.
For over forty years, the theocracy purged ancient Persian history from schoolbooks, replacing it with post-Islamic narratives. But after the 12-day conflict with Israel, officials have turned to the distant pre-Islamic past to rally a divided society.
From murals of ancient kings and soldiers to patriotic songs added to Shi’ite mourning ceremonies performed before Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran now embraces imagery once deemed heretical by its own revolutionary ethos.
'Kneel before Iran' campaign
Tehran’s Revolution (Enghelab) Square was the scene of an unusual spectacle on Friday as officials unveiled a massive bronze statue depicting Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling in submission before Sassanid King Shapur I, commemorating Iran’s victory at the Battle of Edessa (260 AD).
The event was held under the slogan “Kneel before Iran,” part of what authorities describe as a campaign to project “national unity and historical pride” following the June war with Israel.
Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, a staunch ultraconservative, said on X: “Enmity with Great Iran can only end in kneeling before this historic nation.”
Municipal official Davood Goodarzi said the installation would be accompanied by visual displays depicting “other victories of Iranians over foreign aggressors,” including the defeat of British forces by local commander Rais-Ali Delvari, Mirza Kuchak Khan’s resistance against Russian troops, and Surena’s triumph over Rome at the Battle of Carrhae in 53 BCE.
The goal, Goodarzi said, is “strengthening concepts such as national dignity, social unity, and Iranian identity.”
The statue, he said, would remain temporarily at Revolution Square before being moved to a city gateway “where it will stand as the first emblem of Iran before diplomats and foreign visitors.”
Unveiled women were allowed to attend the unveiling ceremony—an uncommon scene at events organized by Tehran’s ultra-hardline municipality.
The turn to the pre-Islamic past
The sharp reversal also recalls remarks once made by Khamenei. In a 2011 speech, he asserted that “all the great military victories of this nation came after Islam,” dismissing pre-Islamic accounts as “things that are not documented.”
In 1987, he had said that prophets triumphed over kings such as Cyrus and that “nothing remains of these monarchs in history but names remembered with derision.”
Nevertheless, pro-government social media accounts have now gone so far as to circulate posters equating Khamenei himself with Shapur, showing him standing with a staff as Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump kneel before him. The caption reads: “You will kneel before Iran.”
'Hypocrisy'
Pro-government figures have hailed the move as a patriotic success. Conservative political reporter Hossein Saremi posted: “Today’s grand Iranian gathering showed that people and the state share one essence: Iran itself. Nothing can take our homeland away.”
Others, however, called the spectacle “hypocrisy.” Journalist Gholamhossein Pashaei wrote on X: “Every year you close Pasargadae to stop people from celebrating Cyrus Day, yet you unveil Shapur’s statue in Enghelab Square with drums and fireworks during Fatimiyya (mourning period)!”
Dissident commentator Hamid Asafi called the ceremony “a perfect snapshot of the Islamic Republic’s contradictions.”
On Telegram he wrote: “A week ago they closed Cyrus’s tomb out of fear of the crowds, and now they glorify Shapur in the same breath. The Islamic Republic fears living history but poses for selfies with its corpse.”
He added: “They know people no longer respond to rosaries and sermons. That’s why they’ve brought history back to the stage—in a controlled costume. If they can’t erase the past, they’ll try to own it.”
The irony deepened as UNESCO formally recognized Cyrus’s Charter as one of the earliest human-rights documents.
President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X: “Iran, the cradle of dialogue, justice, and coexistence, can still inspire peace today.”
Users swiftly replied, questioning how such pride could coexist with a government that blocks access to Cyrus’s tomb each year to those wishing to visit it on his birthday.
