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US-Iran talks are set to get trickier as the two foes thrash out technical details deciding the limits to Iran's nuclear activity and the scope of inspections, a former senior US negotiator told Eye for Iran.
Richard Nephew, former US deputy special envoy for Iran during part of Joe Biden's presidency, said the level of trust between President Donald Trump and his special envoy Steve Witkoff augured well for the talks.
Still, as the negotiations are set for their third round on Saturday and first set of technical talks, the devil may be in the technical details.
"We haven't yet really seen a pretty clear sense of consistency or attention to detail on the technical side," he said in an interview with the podcast.
"Nuclear talks in general, but absolutely these, which have a 22-year history at this point, definitely could use a little bit more of the technical, a little more of the expert practitioner side," he added.
The ability of inspectors to understand and access the Iranian nuclear program which has advanced far further beyond levels reached when previous nuclear deal will also be key to success, Nephew said.
"That job is harder now than it was in the past. There's a lot less that is known about Iran's current centrifuge production activities than was known at the time. There are more hidden sites. There are storage locations."
Nephew was Washington's lead sanctions expert in the team which inked the 2015 agreement, from which Trump withdrew in 2018 during his first term.
That decision means it will not just mean the US side will be seeking commitments from Iran, he said, but Tehran will want to be sure Washington will not promptly withdraw again.
"I think the biggest thing, and this is the thing the Iranians have been looking for, and I think it's also part of the US approach here too, is guarantees for performance going forward. And I think for the Iranian, this is obviously a very serious issue because the United States did withdraw in the past."
'Talks are no reward'
While Tehran's staunchest critics have criticized US-Iran nuclear talks as legitimizing an irredeemable enemy, Nephew said diplomacy should be seen as a strategic tool and not a reward.
“I have to smile when I hear about diplomacy being seen as a reward. I couldn't disagree more with that,” Nephew said. “Diplomacy is a national security and foreign policy tool. If you see diplomacy as a tool, then you can't also see it simultaneously as a reward.”
In a recent interview with the Washington Free Beacon, maverick Democratic Senator John Fetterman deployed salty language to advocate ending talks and bombing Iranian nuclear sites.
“Waste that shit,” Fetterman said. “You’re not going to be able to negotiate with that kind of regime that has been destabilizing the region for decades already.”
Nephew argued that diplomacy paired with rigorous verification and inspections remains the best path while acknowledging that diplomacy was no panacea.
“You can’t put all your chips on diplomacy,” he said, emphasizing the need for a credible military contingency in the background. But a strike, he warned, wouldn’t be quick or clean.
“A military option would, at a minimum, create chaos across what remains of the Iranian nuclear program,” he explained. “If I'm sitting in Tehran after US military strikes, after I've lost Hezbollah, Hamas, Shia militia groups, and similar assets, it's hard to imagine the regime saying, ‘Yes, let’s make strategic concessions now.’”
You can watch the full interview with Richard Nephew on YouTube, or listen on any major podcast platform like Spotify, Apple, Amazon or Castbox.
US-Iran talks are set to get trickier as the two foes thrash out technical details deciding the limits to Iran's nuclear activity and the scope of inspections, a former senior US negotiator told Eye for Iran.
Richard Nephew, former US deputy special envoy for Iran during part of Joe Biden's presidency, said the level of trust between President Donald Trump and his special envoy Steve Witkoff augured well for the talks.
Still, as the negotiations are set for their third round on Saturday and first set of technical talks, the devil may be in the technical details.
"We haven't yet really seen a pretty clear sense of consistency or attention to detail on the technical side," he said in an interview with the podcast.
The Islamic Republic will seek a new lease on life in US talks, former Iranian diplomat Hossein Alizadeh told the Eye for Iran podcast, adding that Iran's rulers will never abandon their hardline ideology against the West.
“It is ideology, flexible ideology. Extremist, but flexible,” Alizadeh said. “Using lies, creating lies—that’s part of their strategy.”
Alizadeh, who served in Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs for 22 years, said Tehran’s current posture is motivated by a desire to stay afloat amid both internal unrest and external pressure.
Despite having defected, Alizadeh says he remains in contact with individuals inside Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and remains familiar with official policy thinking.
He offered insight into the mindset of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling him a revolutionary who clings to the vision of his predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, to export the Islamic Revolution.
“The reality is dictating to Khamenei that in this situation—internally because of the economic problems inside Iran, and tension with many parts of the world, particularly with Israel and the United States, and now with the European Union,” he said.
According to Alizadeh, pressure is mounting: Israel’s strikes on Iran’s regional proxies, economic hardship, domestic dissent, and the looming threat of “snapback” sanctions from the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany) are all pushing Tehran toward tactical concessions.
Despite its defiant stance, he said, Iran will most likely cave to US demands—but only temporarily.
Flipping his lights on and off, Alizadeh emphasized: “The nuclear program is like this: switch on. Switch off."
Iran permits nuclear inspectors into the country, he added, but blocks human rights monitors because Tehran can pause nuclear activities but cannot hide rights abuses.
Alizadeh served as a diplomat in Finland during the 2009 contested elections, when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s declared victory sparked mass protests.
Supporters of opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi claimed the vote was rigged, leading to a nationwide crackdown.
That moment, Alizadeh said, shattered his lifelong beliefs.
“When the Green Movement erupted in Iran was a moment that I always describe it as rebirth for myself,” he said.
Alizadeh pointed to the lack of public outrage from Iran’s hardliners in the face of renewed diplomacy—even with President Donald Trump whom the detest for ordering the killing of military leader Qasem Soleimani and withdrew from an earlier nuclear deal during his first term.
“Trump is in office—the Trump who killed Qasem Soleimani and the Trump who withdraw his country out of the JCPOA,” Alizadeh said. “None of the hardliners are saying anything against the talks. So, in fact, it's a matter of survival. They know this is a real game.”
Alizadeh said he advises American officials that Iranian diplomacy should not be compared to the Western model. In Iran’s case, it’s a calculated tool to manipulate perception.
“For Khamenei, diplomacy is a tool. He used it as instrument to trick people that, I am a rational person. Iran under me is a normal country like all the others,” Alizadeh said.
To hear more from Hossein Alizadeh, watch the full episode of Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Castbox, or Amazon.
Tehran and Washington are heading into high-stakes talks in Oman this weekend that could determine the path ahead: diplomacy or war. The outcome may shape not only regional stability, but the survival of the Islamic Republic, which has ruled Iran for more than four decades.
On this episode of Eye for Iran, a powerhouse panel of experts unpacks what’s really at stake and what each side hopes to gain.
The Islamic Republic is fundamentally transactional—and deeply motivated to strike a deal in order to survive, says Arash Azizi, an Iran analyst and author of What Iranians Want.
“The result of a failure of the talks is no longer, oh, there will be a lot more sanctions, you have to deal with it economically but an escalation that could be really devastating to Iran as a nation,” said Azizi.
Pressure is mounting. Former President Donald Trump has not only issued verbal warnings but deployed strategic bombers to the Indian Ocean. The US military has also moved a Patriot missile defense battalion from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East—a major logistical feat involving at least 73 C-17 cargo flights, according to Axios.
On Wednesday, Trump said that Israel could lead a potential strike on Iran should the nuclear talks collapse. The announcement came just two days after he blindsided Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House by revealing direct negotiations with Tehran.
“If it requires military, we’re going to have military,” Trump said during a press briefing in the Oval Office.
Meanwhile, Iran continues inching closer to nuclear weapons capability. Though Tehran insists its program is peaceful, the UN nuclear watchdog has warned that Iran now possesses enough uranium enriched to near-weapons-grade levels to make several nuclear bombs.
“I think they are very motivated, as real estate agents say, to get a deal,” added Azizi.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Director of the FDD’s Iran program, argues that while the Iranian establishment is ideological, it can still be pressured. “If the president wants to give diplomacy a chance, the best way to do that is to make sure that Iran doesn't have credible exit options—meaning Iran's option away from the table should not be better for the regime than the option to come to the table.”
Jay Solomon of The Free Press warns that Iran may use talks to buy time. “What's still kind of confusing is the person who's negotiating it, Steve Witkoff, and his positions, at least publicly, of what a deal would look like is a lot different than what Mike Waltz the national security advisor—he's talked about essentially dismantling the whole program.”
Solomon also pointed to rifts within the Trump camp.
“His (Witkoff) diplomacy in recent weeks was on Tucker Carlson, and Carlson himself has almost daily been lobbying very publicly against any military strikes on Iran … you can see these tensions inside the Trump administration between kind of these hawkish, almost traditional conservative Republicans like Waltz. But then you have this wing of the MAGA movement.”
Gabriel Noronha, former Special Advisor for the Iran Action Group at the State Department, sees these talks as a test—not a breakthrough.
"This is really President Trump saying that there's one last way out for Iran to avoid the disastrous fate which it has put itself into… an easy way out of this predicament or there's the hard way out, the hard way out being military strikes.”
An official familiar with the preparations was cited by Reuters as saying that the two delegations will meet in the same room.
It’s a pivotal moment—one that could reset the trajectory of US-Iran relations. Whether diplomacy prevails or war looms will likely be decided behind closed doors in Oman.
You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on any major podcast platform like Spotify, Apple, Amazon or Castbox.
Under the shadow of US President Donald Trump’s threats to bomb Iran and after over a year of punishing blows at the hands of Israel, a bruised Islamic Republic remains defiant and seeks a comeback.
“Iran is not giving up,” Dr. Eric Mandel, founder of the Middle East Political Information Network (MEPIN) told Eye for Iran. “Iran's proxies—they may be down—Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis—but they’re not stopping.”
As the US positions aircraft in the Indian Ocean capable of striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, some Iranian officials have warned it will be forced to develop a nuclear weapon.
Iran has stepped up its production of fissile material in recent years, and the UN nuclear watchdog says it could accumulate enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in less than a week.
Ali Larijani, a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, delivered this message on Monday. “If the US or Israel bomb Iran under the nuclear pretext, Iran will be compelled to move toward producing an atomic bomb,” he said.
Mandel, who regularly briefs members of Congress and national security officials, argued that supporting the Iranian people must become a central pillar of US foreign policy.
“America needs to start saying, we are pro-Iranian, pro-Iranian people, and that it becomes American policy that we want, without boots on the ground, regime change.”
In Congress, the bipartisan bill the Maximum Support Act aims at bolstering dissidents within Iran.
Developed with input from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and the National Union for Democracy in Iran (NUFDI), the draft legislation envisions funding opposition groups in Iran.
“I'm ashamed as an American who talks about American national security interests that we were not in 2022 standing strong with the protests,” said Mandel.
In that year the nationwide protest movement dubbed Woman, Life, Freedom was sparked by the death in morality police custody of Mahsa Jina Amini, a young woman.
'Window of opportunity'
“There is a closing window of opportunity to strike Iran, which is particularly vulnerable because of the successful Israeli attacks against their defensive anti-missile array," Mandel said, who also advocates a US strike on vital Iranian economic infrastructure.
"There is also a decreasing window of opportunity for negotiations even if
the Iranians believe there is a credible military threat."
A potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine could allow Moscow to deliver advanced weapons systems to Iran. That includes the S-400 air defense system—an upgrade from the S-300 system Israel disabled in an Oct. 26 strike in response to Iran’s October 2 missile barrage on Israel.
Putting the Iranian S-300s out of action opens the door to Israeli or American strikes, possibly on a larger scale. But Iran could rebuild with Russian help.
“Those missile defenses will not be down for much longer,” said Mandel, “not only for S-400s and even more evolved system, but for the SU-35 jets that the Russians have promised. And again, the Russians owe the Iranians because they've been very helpful to them during their Ukraine war.”
Moscow has publicly tried to dissuade Trump from bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities, warning of “catastrophic consequences.”
