Iran International
Under the shadow of US President Donald Trump’s threats to bomb Iran and after over a year of punishing blows at the hands of Israel, a bruised Islamic Republic remains defiant and seeks a comeback.
“Iran is not giving up,” Dr. Eric Mandel, founder of the Middle East Political Information Network (MEPIN) told Eye for Iran. “Iran's proxies—they may be down—Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis—but they’re not stopping.”
As the US positions aircraft in the Indian Ocean capable of striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, some Iranian officials have warned it will be forced to develop a nuclear weapon.
Iran has stepped up its production of fissile material in recent years, and the UN nuclear watchdog says it could accumulate enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in less than a week.
Ali Larijani, a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, delivered this message on Monday. “If the US or Israel bomb Iran under the nuclear pretext, Iran will be compelled to move toward producing an atomic bomb,” he said.
Mandel, who regularly briefs members of Congress and national security officials, argued that supporting the Iranian people must become a central pillar of US foreign policy.
“America needs to start saying, we are pro-Iranian, pro-Iranian people, and that it becomes American policy that we want, without boots on the ground, regime change.”
In Congress, the bipartisan bill the Maximum Support Act aims at bolstering dissidents within Iran.
Developed with input from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and the National Union for Democracy in Iran (NUFDI), the draft legislation envisions funding opposition groups in Iran.
“I'm ashamed as an American who talks about American national security interests that we were not in 2022 standing strong with the protests,” said Mandel.
In that year the nationwide protest movement dubbed Woman, Life, Freedom was sparked by the death in morality police custody of Mahsa Jina Amini, a young woman.
'Window of opportunity'
“There is a closing window of opportunity to strike Iran, which is particularly vulnerable because of the successful Israeli attacks against their defensive anti-missile array," Mandel said, who also advocates a US strike on vital Iranian economic infrastructure.
"There is also a decreasing window of opportunity for negotiations even if
the Iranians believe there is a credible military threat."
A potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine could allow Moscow to deliver advanced weapons systems to Iran. That includes the S-400 air defense system—an upgrade from the S-300 system Israel disabled in an Oct. 26 strike in response to Iran’s October 2 missile barrage on Israel.
Putting the Iranian S-300s out of action opens the door to Israeli or American strikes, possibly on a larger scale. But Iran could rebuild with Russian help.
“Those missile defenses will not be down for much longer,” said Mandel, “not only for S-400s and even more evolved system, but for the SU-35 jets that the Russians have promised. And again, the Russians owe the Iranians because they've been very helpful to them during their Ukraine war.”
Moscow has publicly tried to dissuade Trump from bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities, warning of “catastrophic consequences.”
Their conclusion, after facing militants' bullets and a ghostly encounter with the shell-shocked monarch, was that the US could no longer support its longtime ally's rule.
The consequences of Islamic Revolution to follow reverberate to the present day.
Ambassador John Craig, 80, was a young American diplomat when he was tasked with joining an exclusive group to meet the Shah alongside Senate majority leader Senator Robert Byrd.
It was a mission that went undisclosed even to American Ambassador to Iran William Sullivan, Craig told Iran International in an interview in Elizabethtown, Pennsylvania, where he teaches at the local university.
In a storied career, Craig went on to serve as US ambassador to Egypt and Oman.
“President Carter asked Senator Byrd to make a special trip to Tehran to give him a personal assessment of the longevity of the Shah. There was great concern in Washington”, said Craig, “Could the Shah hold on? Could the Shah defeat the revolution?”
Their task was to help Carter transcend the disagreements within the US foreign policy over whether one of Washington's key allies in the turbulent region could be salvaged and provide an unvarnished take on the Shah's mettle.
“Some were saying, yes, the Shah could hold on, others no. One of the issues in that debate was how much force should be used to put down the revolution,” said Craig.
"There were those who felt that the Shah should really be aggressive and shoot people. And there were those who felt that reforms were the way to defeat the revolution.”
Mission: Tehran
To camouflage the trip's true purpose, Craig and the rest of the group made a diplomatic tour across the Middle East and the North Africa before arriving in Tehran.
Craig touched down in December 1978, just a few months before the Shah was ultimately toppled and as rebellion roiled cities nationwide.
Violence was escalating and martial law was in place as armed anti-Shah demonstrators roamed the streets chanting ‘death to the Shah!’
Because of the security risk, Craig and the team were not able to drive to the Shah’s Niavaran palace and instead flew by helicopter.
“We were flying. You could see out the windows that people were shooting at us,” Craig said.
When they arrived, Craig said he was astonished to see bare walls - no paintings, no antiques - in what was once among the world's most opulent palaces.
It became clear that the Shah was preparing to flee.
“I'm saying to myself, this is really weird. I said to myself immediately, these guys have packed up. They are ready to go. No question about that,” Craig said.
Entering the palace’s Hall of Mirrors, Craig caught sight of the Shah and his wife, Empress Farah Diba, standing to greet them.
'Inert' emperor
“He was comatose. Standing, but inert,” said Craig.
“I noticed that the Shah was looking straight ahead. He was not interacting. His eyes weren't moving. He did not raise his hand. But when the person put their hand in his hand, he didn't grasp it and he didn't shake it,” Craig said.
They went on to have lunch in the palace. Craig said the Shah did not speak once over the course of the meal, leaving the Empress to do all the talking. She appeared to be in control and running the country in the last days of their rule, Craig concluded.
“He didn't eat. He didn't move. He didn't say a word,” said Craig about the Shah.
Pleasantries and small talk dominated the discussion and the violence in the streets went unmentioned. Senator Byrd and Ambassador Craig left convinced that the Shah was unfit to rule.
Little did anyone at the time realize it, but the lunch was to help determine US policy and Iran's future course for the coming decades.
Screaming match
What followed next was a visit by Senator Byrd and Ambassador Craig to Ambassador Sullivan’s house in Tehran to break the news on the special visit.
While Ambassador Craig did not partake in the conversation, he could hear what Sullivan and Byrd were saying.
“There was a lot of screaming and yelling. They were arguing about what our policy should be going forward,” said Craig on the encounter between the two men.
The conversation lasted about three hours, with Sullivan coming to the defense of the Shah and pushing to have the Americans keep him in power. Byrd argued the Shah was already done for and unable to rule over a people in revolt.
On the flight back to the United States, Senator Byrd prepared his report to Carter.
“We were such a small group, of course, that we could hear what the senator was dictating in the memo to the president. So we we all knew what the senator was saying in his memo,” said Craig.
Once they arrived back to D.C, the Senator had a car waiting to take him straight to the White House, where he informed the president of his dire conclusion: the scion of Iran's 2,500-year monarchy was doomed.
“He went back and told the president: This is not going to work," Craig said.
"The Shah cannot continue.”
You can watch the full interview with Ambassador John Craig on YouTube.