A day of confusion, warnings and behind-the-scenes maneuvering ended with a fresh announcement that US–Iran talks were back on track, underscoring how fragile and contested the diplomatic process remains on the eve of a possible meeting.
The reappearance of diplomacy between Washington and Tehran is being shadowed by limited but dangerous military showdowns, revealing how narrow the space for negotiation has become in the absence of trust.
Conflicting voices in Tehran on the competing prospects of war and diplomacy with Washington may be deliberate, but they more likely reflect an absence of consensus at the top.
Israelis and Iranians have been cast as enemies for so long, but during Iran’s uprisings their voices tell a different story as Iranians drew a line between themselves and the Islamic Republic.
President Donald Trump on Thursday delivered a characteristically ambiguous message on Iran, pairing talk of overwhelming military force with renewed signals that he may still favor a negotiated deal.
Tehran appears to have taken the US military buildup near Iran seriously, but shows no sign of softening its rhetoric or accepting Washington’s terms while it explores limited diplomatic channels.
With US military assets building up across the Middle East and Washington warning Tehran that “time is running out,” a former Israeli military spokesperson says US strikes on Iran now appear increasingly likely.
Iran showed no sign of shifting its stance toward the United States at a joint press conference with Turkey on Friday, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi saying Tehran had no plan to meet US officials and would not negotiate under threats or preconditions.
President Donald Trump’s response to Iran’s recent unrest appears to reflect a strategy of gunboat diplomacy: the use of military pressure, rhetorical escalation, and economic coercion to extract concessions without committing to war or formal regime change.
The possibility of US military action against Iran is eroding Iranians’ purchasing power and deepening their sense of insecurity, according to Iranian economic news outlets which provide a rare window into economic behavior amid an internet blackout.
US President Donald Trump’s dramatic naval buildup in the Middle East appears to have generated more strategic uncertainty than clarity both in Tehran and in Washington.
Tehran’s increasingly combative official statements suggest its leaders may be taking US military deployments more seriously than Washington’s signals of diplomacy.
US officials told Iraqi leaders Washington would starve Baghdad of oil revenue if it kept up economic links with Iran and would suspend ties if politicians deemed close to Iran became ministers, Reuters reported on Friday citing sources.
Russia likely views Iran’s mass anti-regime protests with deep unease, but may ultimately adapt just as it did in Syria to preserve influence whether the Islamic Republic survives or a new political order emerges.
The future of the Islamic Republic is unresolved, but if and when change comes, Iran’s return to global trade would carry far-reaching consequences for the region’s economy.
Israel’s apparent inaction amid Iran’s widespread unrest may look counterintuitive, but it reflects a long-standing strategic calculation rather than hesitation.
In a speech on Friday, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei left little doubt that Tehran intends to confront the current wave of protests with force rather than concession.
Iran executed a man convicted of spying for Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency on Wednesday, state media said, in a case authorities described as involving the transfer of sensitive security information and direct coordination with alleged Israeli operatives inside the country.
Tehran appears to be placing growing emphasis on its ballistic missile program amid continued domestic unrest and the looming possibility of US intervention in support of protesters in Iran.
President Donald Trump would likely authorize more US attacks if Iran advances its nuclear or missile programs, Republican senators told Jewish Insider.
Iran’s newly formed Defense Council warned on Tuesday that the country could respond before an attack if it detected clear signs of a threat, a stance that implicitly raised the possibility of preemptive action amid rising tensions with the United States and Israel.
Prolonged economic exhaustion and a broader loss of confidence in the Iranian state after historic military and foreign policy setbacks in 2025 means 2026 may be the Islamic Republic's hardest ever year.