Iran International
Saudi-backed Yemeni forces on Monday reversed weeks of Houthi gains around Bab al-Mandab, the strategic strait linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, exposing vulnerabilities in the Iran-backed group even as fighting elsewhere showed how far Yemen remains from a decisive shift.
As government-aligned forces advanced along Yemen’s southwestern coast, the Houthis stepped up pressure around Taiz, one of the country’s largest cities, leaving a battlefield moving in two directions at once.
The reversal came as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan activated their Mecca Joint Defense Agreement following an emergency meeting in Riyadh, saying they would accelerate the deployment of agreed military forces and capabilities to Saudi Arabia.
Together, the developments point to a potentially consequential new phase of the Yemen war. But whether the counteroffensive can be sustained, and what any lasting reversal would mean for Iran’s position in Yemen, remains unclear.
“I think it’s too early to talk about sustainable gains against the Houthis at this point,” Thomas Juneau, a Yemen expert and non-resident fellow at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, told Iran International.
“I think we need more time to see the dust settle.”
Iran watches a critical coastline
The importance Tehran attaches to Yemen’s western coast was apparent even as the latest Houthi gains were being reversed.
An IRGC-aligned Iranian newspaper led its coverage Monday with the headline “Ansarullah’s Upper Hand in Regional Equations,” arguing that Houthi positions around Bab al-Mandab translate into deterrence and regional leverage extending far beyond Yemen.
But the territory captured during the Houthis’ September advance was always going to be difficult to defend.
Juneau described southwestern Yemen as flat and exposed, with few natural defensive advantages and increasingly stretched Houthi supply lines.
“If it turns out that the losses are limited to the southwest corner of Yemen, that is not surprising in the sense that that was difficult for the Houthis to hold,” he said.
Even if pushed farther from Bab al-Mandab, the Houthis remain close enough to threaten Red Sea shipping with missiles and drones.
“So that would not be a strategic setback for them,” Juneau said.
Fatima Abo Alasrar, a Yemeni scholar, senior policy analyst and founder of Ideology Machine, said the Houthis’ September push had IRGC backing and caught Saudi-backed Yemeni forces poorly coordinated to respond.
Monday’s counteroffensive, however, demonstrated how quickly those gains could be reversed.
“The biggest takeaway is that this myth of Houthi invincibility is no longer there,” she said.
Hodeidah and Taiz complicate the picture
The more consequential test may now lie elsewhere.
The Houthis still control Hodeidah farther north on the Red Sea coast, preserving their ability to threaten maritime traffic even without holding territory immediately around Bab al-Mandab.
“Bab al-Mandab was just the icing on the cake,” Abo Alasrar said.
The possibility of attacks can itself increase shipping and insurance costs, meaning the Houthis do not need to physically control the strait to retain leverage over maritime traffic.
A loss of Hodeidah would represent a much more significant change to their strategic position. Late on Monday, the Saudi-led coalition said its naval forces struck Houthi military infrastructure in Yemen’s Hodeidah governorate, including weapons storage sites, facilities housing explosive-laden boats and stockpiles of sea mines.
At the same time, the Houthis are increasing pressure around Taiz, one of Yemen’s largest and most densely populated cities.
The geography presents a very different battlefield from the exposed southwestern coast and raises the prospect of a costly war of attrition.
“What I’m watching right now is the population centers,” Abo Alasrar said. “It’s in the cities, it’s in the population centers that the Houthis can inflict real damage.”
Iranian media has also shown growing interest in the fighting around Taiz, with Tasnim closely tracking Houthi advances there.
The simultaneous movement on the two fronts is one reason Juneau cautioned against drawing broad conclusions from the coastal counteroffensive.
“I don’t think we’re in a position to say yet that the Houthis are sustaining losses,” he said.
Two wars increasingly intertwined
The fighting is unfolding against the backdrop of the wider confrontation involving Iran, but Yemen cannot be understood solely through that lens.
“The war in Yemen is unlikely to end without a broader resolution to the war with Iran,” Mohammed al-Basha, a Yemeni-American analyst and founder of the Basha Report, told Iran International.
“But ending the confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz will not, by itself, end the war in Yemen.”
“The two conflicts are interconnected, but they are also distinct, with their own actors, grievances, battlefields, and political dynamics,” he added.
That distinction is important in assessing what the latest Houthi setbacks mean for Tehran.
Iran’s support has helped the Houthis develop into a powerful regional actor, but the group also operates within a distinctly Yemeni conflict shaped by domestic political, tribal and territorial dynamics.
A battlefield setback for the Houthis therefore does not translate automatically into an equivalent strategic loss for Iran.
Saudi Arabia signals it can absorb the risk
The activation of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement adds another dimension to the confrontation.
Following an emergency meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan said they would move immediately to implement their joint-defense commitments and take measures to provide agreed military forces and capabilities and expedite their deployment in Saudi Arabia.
The three countries said the security of each member state was an integral part of their collective security and that implementing the agreement would strengthen deterrence.
“This is an important signal. It is a deterrent signal,” Abo Alasrar told Iran International following the announcement.
Saudi Arabia entered the counteroffensive knowing that supporting Yemeni government forces could expose the kingdom to retaliation from Houthi drones and ballistic missiles.
In Abo Alasrar’s assessment, the agreement signals that Riyadh is preparing to absorb that risk rather than allow the threat of retaliation to constrain the campaign.
It also sends a message about time.
The Houthis had hoped they could pressure Saudi Arabia and eventually emerge with concessions, she said. A Saudi signal that it is prepared for a prolonged confrontation potentially changes that calculation.
“This changes the rules of the game because Saudi Arabia is basically signaling that it’s going to play their game,” Abo Alasrar said. “It’s going to stay at this war as long as they want to, and that they’re ready to absorb the costs until they deal with this problem.”
Whether that deters the Houthis or leads to further escalation remains to be seen.
Limits to a broader government advance
Saudi-backed forces face another obstacle if they try to turn Monday’s counteroffensive into a broader campaign: divisions within the anti-Houthi camp.
Juneau said Iranian assistance explains only part of the Houthis’ resilience.
“Anti-Houthi forces remain fragmented and disunited,” he said.
The Houthis, by comparison, remain a considerably more coherent force, while rivalries among their opponents have repeatedly undermined efforts to establish a united front.
That is one reason Juneau remains skeptical of increasingly confident statements from Yemen’s government about eventually retaking Sana’a.
“When I hear the president of the Presidential Leadership Council, Rashad al-Alimi, talk about getting Sana’a back, as of now, I think that’s wishful thinking,” he said.
The contrast captures one of the central uncertainties surrounding the latest offensive: demonstrating that Houthi territorial gains can be reversed is one thing; translating that success into a sustained campaign against the group is another.
Tehran’s longer game
For Iran, the strategic calculation extends well beyond the movement of individual frontlines.
The Houthis have become an increasingly important part of Tehran’s regional network, particularly as other members of the so-called Axis of Resistance have come under intense pressure.
In Juneau’s formulation, small territorial losses along Yemen’s western coast are “the tree.” The durability of Houthi power is “the forest.”
“The forest, from Iran’s perspective, is the long game of seeing Houthi power in Yemen becoming institutionalized, becoming legitimated,” he said.
Juneau pointed to what appears to be an understanding under which the Houthis refrain from attacking US vessels in the Red Sea while Washington refrains from directly attacking the group.
The precise nature of any understanding remains unclear. But Washington dealing with the Houthis as an entrenched power is itself significant, he said.
“The US is making deals with the Houthis, you know, de facto a mutual non-aggression pact, which in practice legitimizes Houthi rule in large parts of Yemen, which is exactly Iran’s objective,” Juneau said.
Monday’s counteroffensive showed that recent Houthi territorial gains can be rapidly reversed. It has not yet shown that those reversals can be sustained or translated into a broader weakening of Houthi power.
Nor is the battle confined to Bab al-Mandab. The Houthis remain in control of Hodeidah, are applying pressure around Taiz and face opponents whose internal divisions have repeatedly worked to their advantage.
For Tehran, that leaves the picture similarly unsettled: one of its most important regional partners has shown itself vulnerable on the battlefield, but the foundations of the leverage Iran has built through the Houthis remain, for now, largely intact.
Ali Rafiei, head of Tehran's police department responsible for monitoring businesses and public venues, said cafes must operate strictly within the activities covered by their licenses.
“Cafes must operate only within their licensed line of business,” Rafiei said. “Serving hookah, hosting live music or DJs, and gambling-related activities are among the violations that will be dealt with.”
He said police would take action as soon as such activities were identified. Businesses could first receive warnings and be required to provide written assurances, while repeated violations could result in their licenses being revoked.
Cafes face wider scrutiny
The warning follows a series of closures targeting cafes, restaurants, shops, gyms and cultural venues across Iran in recent months.
At least 42 businesses were reported sealed between late July and mid-August in different cities.
Authorities in Ardabil also announced the closure of three coffee shops and the arrest of 16 people during the same period.
Closures have not been limited to entertainment or licensing violations. Businesses have also been sealed over the enforcement of Iran's mandatory hijab rules and over support for nationwide protests.
Young people and public space
Rafiei said police monitoring of cafes extended beyond activities inside the establishments.
He pointed to Tehran's Sanai and Iranshahr streets, saying cars cruising through the area, sidewalk setups by cafes and groups of young people gathering without what he described as a clear purpose had contributed to congestion and complaints.
He said blocking sidewalks or public space could also lead to enforcement action. Police generally issue a warning and seek a written commitment from the operator before sealing a business, he added.
Continued violations could ultimately result in the cancellation of a business license, according to Rafiei.
Protest support has also drawn penalties
The pressure on cafe operators has also extended to owners who supported the January protests.
In one case, Iran's Supreme Court in September upheld the prison sentence and confiscation of assets imposed on Sadegh Saedinia, the head of Saedinia Properties and Industries and a supporter of the protests.
Saedinia was sentenced to 12 years, six months and one day in prison and barred from working in the cafe industry for two years after completing his sentence. All branches of his cafe business were sealed following his arrest.
The judiciary said the case involved social media posts, participation in gatherings, closing cafes and shops, and encouraging employees to take part in protests.
The latest police warning adds live music, DJs and hookah service to a growing list of activities that can expose cafe operators to sanctions, alongside mandatory hijab enforcement, use of public space and support for demonstrations.
Informed sources said Abbasian had previously posted videos on social media in support of demonstrators. The death sentence was communicated to him on Sunday at Shirvan prison.
The precise charge leading to the death sentence and the evidence presented against him have not been made public.
Arrested months after protests
Abbasian was arrested in May in Shirvan's Farhang Shahr district. During the nationwide protests earlier this year, he had published videos urging people to take part in demonstrations.
The source said Abbasian was tortured on the first day of his detention and taken to hospital after his condition deteriorated. He was later transferred to Shirvan prison.
His family has not been allowed to visit him since his arrest, the source said, adding that judicial and security authorities had prevented the family from appointing a lawyer of their choice.
Executions accelerate
The sentence comes as Iranian authorities have carried out a growing number of executions of people detained over the nationwide protests that erupted in January.
On Monday, Alireza Sepahi and Alireza Raisi were executed at Isfahan Central Prison in connection with protests in the central city, according to rights groups and Iran's judiciary.
They were among 12 defendants sentenced to death in what has become known as the Alikhani Square case. Seven people in that case have now been executed.
Sepahi married his fiancée from prison one day before his execution, according to Nobel Peace Prize laureate and lawyer Shirin Ebadi.
“Yesterday he became a groom, and today they executed him,” Ebadi wrote.
Five executions in less than a week
The two executions on Monday followed that of Siavash Jamshidi Kheirabadi, who was put to death on Saturday after being arrested during January protests in Shahrekord.
Iran's judiciary said Jamshidi had been sentenced to death for moharebeh, or “enmity against God,” over accusations that he fired at security forces. No information about his prosecution had been made public before the announcement of his execution.
Two other protesters, Ali Hemmati and Majid Nikandish, were executed on September 30 after being detained over demonstrations in Mashhad.
The judiciary accused them of involvement in the deaths of four security personnel and described them as “field operatives” in what it called an attempted coup. No court documents or independent evidence supporting those allegations were made public.
Taken together, at least five people detained in connection with the January protests have been executed since September 30.
Fair-trial concerns
Rights groups and UN experts have repeatedly raised concerns about the use of death sentences against protesters in Iran, citing reports of torture, forced confessions and denial of access to lawyers.
Mai Sato, the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Iran, raised concerns about the treatment of defendants and fair-trial standards in the Alikhani Square case, including reports that detainees and their relatives had been tortured.
A joint statement by 46 countries at the UN Human Rights Council last week also expressed concern over the execution of more than 30 protesters following the January crackdown and called on Iran to halt executions.
Iran Human Rights said in September that at least 100 people detained during the protests were at risk of execution.
Abbasian's case now adds another protester to death row, with his family still barred from visiting him and the basis for the sentence yet to be made public.
The warnings came during a day that also saw Iran execute two protesters detained during the January uprising, the Revolutionary Guards threaten a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and Yemeni government forces launch a major offensive against the Iran-backed Houthis.
Netanyahu says Iran is fighting for survival
Iran’s leadership is weaker than at any point since its establishment and is fighting for survival, Netanyahu said at a ceremony marking the third anniversary of the October 7 attack.
“The tyranny is weaker than it has ever been since its establishment. It is fighting for its life, and its end is to disappear — or rather, to pass from the world,” Netanyahu said.
Netanyahu portrayed the October 7 attack as the opening stage of an Iranian-led effort to destroy Israel. He described what he called a three-pronged Iranian strategy involving armed groups surrounding Israel, thousands of missiles aimed at the country and nuclear weapons intended to destroy it.
“That was Iran’s three-pronged plan. But through our combined efforts, we crushed it, stage by stage,” Netanyahu said.
Israel struck Iran’s ballistic missile stockpiles and severely damaged its nuclear program, including scientists, facilities and infrastructure, Netanyahu added.
Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff chief Ali Abdollahi issued his own warning later Monday, saying any renewed conflict would spread beyond Iran and Israel.
“If a new war begins, its fire will engulf everyone,” Abdollahi said.
Iran would respond immediately and without limits if the United States launched another strike, regardless of whether Washington acted before or after congressional elections or at Israel’s urging, Abdollahi added.
IRGC threatens tanker in Strait of Hormuz
The military warnings coincided with a confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz, where a tanker turned back after the Revolutionary Guards hailed the vessel and threatened to target it if it continued its inbound transit, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said.
The encounter took place 11 nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman. The tanker’s master complied with the instruction and reversed course, UKMTO said.
The episode came as energy shipments through Hormuz showed signs of recovery. At least three liquefied natural gas shipments had exited the strait since late last week, extending a rebound in traffic, Bloomberg reported, citing ship-tracking data. Outbound LNG flows nevertheless remained more than 75% below prewar levels.
Iranian lawmaker Hassan Ghashghavi separately warned neighboring countries that their infrastructure could be targeted if Iranian infrastructure came under attack.
“We have told our neighbors that our security is your security, and our insecurity is your insecurity,” Ghashghavi, spokesman for parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee, said.
Yemen offensive puts Houthis under pressure
Yemen’s government forces opened another regional front on Monday, launching an operation against the Iran-backed Houthis and announcing advances around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Government forces took control of the strait and Dhubab airport and cut the road between Dhubab and Mokha, military spokesperson Colonel Majed al-Nuzaili said. Hundreds of Houthi fighters were surrounded in Dhubab, he added.
The Saudi-led coalition said it struck 324 targets during the operation and provided air protection over Bab el-Mandeb and air cover for Yemeni government forces.
Yemen’s presidential council earlier announced the launch of “Operation Dawn of Yemen,” which it said was intended to retake Sanaa and restore state institutions.
The developments placed the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, two strategic waterways at opposite ends of the Arabian Peninsula, at the center of Monday’s regional developments.
Executions and economic strain at home
Inside Iran, the judiciary confirmed the executions of Alireza Sepahi and Alireza Raisi, two protesters detained during the January 2026 protests.
The two men were defendants in the Alikhani Square case in Isfahan, in which five others had previously been executed. Iran’s Supreme Court upheld death sentences for 12 defendants in the case in July.
UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in Iran Mai Sato condemned Sepahi’s execution and raised concerns about his treatment and judicial process. Sepahi’s lawyer was still seeking a review when the execution was carried out, Sato said.
Prince Reza Pahlavi’s communications office later vowed to pursue accountability for those involved in the executions through fair trials.
Economic difficulties also remained prominent. Workers across several sectors told Iran International that employers were delaying or splitting wage payments and cutting benefits, with some employees taking second jobs to meet everyday expenses.
The combination of military warnings abroad and political, economic and security developments at home kept the possibility of renewed conflict and its consequences at the center of Iran’s news on Monday.
