Iran made a strategic error by expanding its attacks beyond US and Israeli targets to include Persian Gulf states, a move that could pull more countries into the war, former CIA Director David Petraeus told Iran International in an interview on Monday.
“I think that is a big miscalculation on the part of Iran,” Petraeus told 24 with Fardad Farahzad Show, arguing that striking Arab countries that had sought to avoid direct involvement could push them to contribute more directly to regional defense efforts.
US and Israeli forces, Petraeus said, have already “dramatically degraded” Iran’s retaliatory capabilities, though he cautioned it was too early to determine whether the decline in attacks over the past 12 to 24 hours signaled a lasting shift.
“I think it's premature at this point to judge whether or not that will degrade further or if the volume can pick back up,” he said.
Coalition dynamics shift
Petraeus said Tehran’s decision to target regional states – including those that did not allow their bases to be used for operations – may alter the strategic calculus across the Persian Gulf.
Many countries in the region, he said, are already contributing to an integrated air and missile defense network that includes US-supplied Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense systems, along with naval assets and aircraft capable of intercepting incoming projectiles.
While he stopped short of predicting expanded offensive participation, Petraeus said additional Western powers could also align more closely with the effort. “I’m confident they are all taking part in the defensive efforts that are ongoing,” he said.
Uncertain path to political change
Addressing whether military pressure could lead to political transformation inside Iran, Petraeus said any lasting shift would depend primarily on internal fractures within the security forces and leadership.
“The sad reality in such cases often is that the most guys with the most guns and the most willing to be brutal to the people prevail,” he said, cautioning against assumptions that external air campaigns alone can bring about regime collapse.
Petraeus described exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi as a symbolic presence who has outlined a transition toward an elected government rather than dismantling all existing institutions.
Ultimately, he said, momentum would hinge on whether influential insiders conclude that continued confrontation has become unsustainable, shaping not only Iran’s future but the broader balance of power across the Middle East.
“Regarding the status of the nuclear installations in Iran, up to now, we have no indication that any of the nuclear installations, including the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, the Tehran Research Reactor or other nuclear fuel cycle facilities have been damaged or hit,” Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told an emergency meeting of the Board of Governors.
“Efforts to contact the Iranian nuclear regulatory authorities through the IEC continue, with no response so far. We hope this indispensable channel of communication can be reestablished as soon as possible,” he added.
The agency’s Incident and Emergency Centre, Grossi said, was fully operational and coordinating with regional safety networks. “So far, no elevation of radiation levels above the usual background levels has been detected in countries bordering Iran,” he said.
Warning against strikes on nuclear facilities
Armed attacks on nuclear sites, Grossi said, carry risks that extend beyond national borders.
“Let me again recall past General Conference resolutions that state that armed attacks on nuclear facilities should never take place and could result in radioactive releases with grave consequences within and beyond the boundaries of the State which has been attacked,” he said.
He urged restraint by all sides. “Consistent with the objectives of the IAEA, as enshrined in its Statute, I reiterate my call on all parties to exercise maximum restraint to avoid further escalation,” Grossi added.
The IAEA chief also said negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program must start again. “To achieve the long-term assurance that Iran will not acquire nuclear weapons and for maintaining the continued effectiveness of the global non-proliferation regime, we must return to diplomacy and negotiations,” he said.
Iran envoy cites Natanz
Separately, Reuters reported that Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA said the United States and Israel attacked Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday. Asked which facility was struck, the ambassador replied “Natanz,” according to Reuters.
The Natanz nuclear facility is Iran’s main uranium enrichment site and has long been central to international concerns about Tehran’s nuclear activities.
Grossi added that while no radiological release has been detected, the situation remains serious. “Let me underline that the situation today is very concerning. We cannot rule out a possible radiological release with serious consequences,” he said.
Iran calls for IAEA condemnation
During the session, Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA, Reza Najafi, called on the agency to condemn the attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
He rejected that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, calling them “completely false.”
Najafi said Iran’s response would continue, adding that such measures would remain in place as long as what he described as “aggression” continues.
Speaking to Euronews, Gideon Sa'ar said the operation would continue without a fixed end date.
“So there is no time like the operation there. There is no timeline that you're looking at. There is no timeline of this operation. Now, we hadn't gave to ourselves timeline,” Sa’ar said.
“Naturally, we want it to be as short as possible. This is clear. But we didn't put to ourselves any timeline,” he added.
Sa’ar described the campaign as coordinated fully with Washington.
“It’s not that they [the United States] support us. They are working with us hand in hand, working together to achieve the same goals we are. It's, it's a, it's a mutual operation,” he said.
Minister urges Iranians to shape future
Sa’ar framed the offensive as aimed at countering what he described as long-term threats to Israel while opening space for change inside Iran.
“I also tell the Iranian people they have an opportunity now. They have an opportunity to regain their freedom, which was denied by this murderous regime that repressed them so cruelly. And I hope they will be able to do it,” he said.
Sa’ar said Israel would not attempt to choose Iran’s next leadership.
“We are not, we are not intervening with who will be the next leader of Iran. That will be decided by the Iranian people themselves, hopefully in like free elections, that's the best thing that can happen,” he said.
“Our only requirement is that anyone who will be in power will not work to eliminate the state of Israel. This is enough for us,” he added.
Sa’ar confirmed that the strikes resulted in the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whom he said directed repression at home and backed armed groups hostile to Israel.
“He was the supreme leader of Iran but it was a mega terrorist personally gave order for terror actions around the world,” Sa’ar said.
Sa’ar rejected criticism that the operation violates international law.
“This is totally justified by international law because international law justifies self-defense and someone who is… swearing and acting in order to eliminate another state. This state shouldn't wait until it will happen,” he said.
Duration uncertain
Sa’ar declined to predict how long the campaign would last.
“I don't want to be a prophet and to say how many days we are decisive to reach,” he said.
The Israeli military said on Sunday it would mobilize 100,000 reservists as strikes continue.
Sa’ar argued that any political shift in Iran would depend on domestic will rather than outside orchestration.
“Something is the most important thing here is connected to the will of the Iranian people. It's not something you can orchestrate from outside when you don't have a real will of the Iranian people,” he said.
