Iran International
Heavy Israeli blows on Iran and its armed allies in two years of fighting after October 7, 2023 earned a fragile calm in the region, Mideast analyst Merissa Khurma told Iran International, but only US-Iran diplomacy can win peace.
"The one thing that could perhaps stop or delay the resurgence of Iranian proxies and further disruption of the peace process would be the restarting of negotiations between Iran and the United States, said Khurma, former director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center.
She added that Israel felt increasingly unrestrained in confronting adversaries but that the kaleidoscope of Iran-backed groups in the region was determined to fight back.
“Israel is going to preempt every threat they see as existential,” said Khurma, a longtime watcher of regional events and founder of Washington-based consulting firm AMENA Strategies.
The strikes have weakened Tehran’s network of allies, she said, but the calm is temporary. “Hamas was able to recruit and reboot. Similarly with Hezbollah. They have a recruiting strategy and resources,” Khurma said.
She said sanctions are putting pressure on Iran and have prompted outreach to US President Donald Trump.
“President Trump earlier said the Iranians asked whether US sanctions could be lifted. Also, Tehran appears willing to talk but insists Washington stop supporting Israel - a condition the United States is not prepared to meet."
Disarmament demands
Meanwhile a truce in Gaza clinched by US President Donald Trump in October appears to have stalled as Iran-backed Hamas militants have yet to disarm and Israeli attacks have killed hundreds despite a ceasefire.
“A US 20-point plan for Palestinian statehood could help curb militancy, but it requires steady pressure on Israel,” Khurma said. “Hamas should not be part of any future governance in Gaza.”
She addressed serious social challenged in the region as youth frustration and unemployment fuel discontent. She said joblessness has hit 45% in Jordan and 30% in Tunisia, while Moroccans are protesting poor governance.
“Democracy did not get me a job,” the analyst cited a young Tunisian as saying. US aid cuts, shed added, including an 83% reduction in USAID funding, have hampered Washington's ability to address the region's root problems.
“Yet online activism is growing. Afghan women teach despite Taliban bans and regional women’s groups are sustaining themselves, often inspired by Iran’s Woman, Life, Freedom movement,” Khurma said.
She called for a comprehensive US regional strategy that includes phased sanctions relief for Iran in exchange for concessions, investment to counter Iran-backed Iraqi militias and the safeguarding of Palestinian gains via leverage over Israel.
“Without such engagement, never-ending cycles of violence will radicalize youth. Saudi and Egyptian leaders support efforts to weaken extremists, and as Trump doubles down on America First, the region is watching for signs of dialogue over the stalemate,” Khurma said.
Police said gunmen opened fire at a Hanukkah gathering at Bondi Beach on Sunday. One suspected attacker was killed and another was in critical condition, New South Wales Police Commissioner Mal Lanyon told reporters, adding authorities were examining whether a third gunman was involved.
Jeremy Leibler, president of the Zionist Federation of Australia, told The Times of Israel that Australia’s foreign ministry was examining whether Iran could be behind the attack.
“The Foreign Ministry tells me it is investigating whether Iran is behind the shooting. To me, that says there is a real possibility,” he said.
Australian officials have not publicly confirmed any foreign involvement. Lanyon urged calm and said investigators were working through multiple lines of inquiry.
Later in the day, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei condemned the attack, saying: “We condemn the violent attack in Sydney, Australia. Terror violence and mass killing shall be condemned, wherever they’re committed.”
In August, Australia accused Iran of involvement in two antisemitic arson attacks and ordered its ambassador to leave the country within seven days.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said intelligence gathered by the Australian Security Intelligence Organization showed Iran had directed attacks on a kosher restaurant in Sydney and a synagogue in Melbourne last year.
Israeli authorities said they were also investigating responsibility for the attack amid concerns it may have been orchestrated by a state actor or militant groups, Ynet said.
Israeli officials cited Iran as a primary suspect if a state were involved, while also examining possible links to groups including Hezbollah, Hamas and Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, according to Israeli media reports.
A senior Israeli security official told Israel Hayom that “in recent months there has been increased activity by Iran to orchestrate attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets around the world,” adding that investigators believed the “direction and infrastructure” of the attack originated in Tehran.
An Israeli intelligence source cited by the newspaper said activity by Iran and its allies had “markedly increased” in recent months. Iran has not commented on the allegations.
The Bondi Beach shooting came almost 11 years after the 2014 Lindt Cafe siege in Sydney. Two police officers were among those injured in Sunday’s attack, authorities said.
Leibler said the shooting could have lasting consequences for Australia’s Jewish community.
“I’m trying to process what impact this is going to have on the Jewish community of Australia,” he said, calling it one of the deadliest attacks on Jews globally in recent years. He added that concerns about antisemitism were already prompting some members of the community to consider leaving Australia.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese condemned the attack and said authorities would bring those responsible to justice.
“We have accepted Lebanon’s new ambassador, and I hope the process of accepting our new ambassador in Lebanon will follow its natural course,” foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said during his weekly briefing on Sunday when asked about the reported suspension.
Baghaei rejected suggestions that diplomatic ties had been disrupted, saying relations between Iran and Lebanon were long-standing and ongoing.
Iran already has an ambassador in Beirut and that Lebanon’s new ambassador has recently taken up his post in Tehran, he added.
“The relevant process regarding Iran’s new ambassador in Lebanon has been underway for some time,” Baghaei said. “We hope this process will proceed in a normal manner in Lebanon as well, and that our new ambassador will be stationed there.”
Lebanon’s foreign minister, Youssef Raji, has declined to advance the administrative steps required to approve Iran’s proposed ambassador, including submitting the credentials to the cabinet and presidency, the Lebanese pro-Hezbollah daily Al-Akhbar reported on Saturday.
Iran’s role in Lebanon and the wider region had fueled instability, Raji told Al Jazeera on Friday, saying Beirut remained open to dialogue if Tehran stopped supporting Hezbollah and ended what he described as interference in Lebanon’s internal affairs.
“Iran’s role in Lebanon and the region has been very negative,” Raji said. “We have a problem with Iran, but we are open to dialogue, provided it stops interfering in our internal affairs and halts funding an illegal organization in Lebanon.”
Iran has long backed Hezbollah and has rejected international and domestic calls for the group to disarm, arguing that continued Israeli actions justify its armed presence.
The diplomatic dispute followed an exchange earlier this month in which Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi invited Raji to visit Tehran. Raji declined, citing unfavorable conditions, and suggested meeting in a third country.
Baghaei dismisses Venezuela meddling
In the same briefing, Baghaei brushed off comments attributed to Venezuelan opposition figure María Corina Machado accusing Iran of interference in Venezuela’s internal affairs. He said the claims were politically motivated and unrelated to facts on the ground.
“It is not appropriate to respond to the remarks of someone who has shown no value or attachment to her own country,” Baghaei said.
On reports of Iranian interference in Caracas, he said: “These remarks are irrelevant. Venezuela, as a sovereign country, sets its foreign relations according to its national interests, engages with partners on the basis of mutual respect, and shapes its foreign policy accordingly.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio this month cast Venezuela as a regional launchpad for Iranian influence, describing Maduro’s government as a narcotics transit hub that hosts Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah
Little public evidence exists about the security relationship Venezuela has with Iran or its armed allies. Tehran and Caracas boosted ties under Maduro's predecessor Hugo Chavez, who cast himself as a bulwark against what he called American imperialism.
Machado said on Wednesday that their influence in Venezuela amounted to an invasion while not directly addressing whether she supported stepped up US military attacks on the country to bring about Maduro's downfall.
“Venezuela has already been invaded,” she said at a news conference alongside the Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store on Thursday.
“We have the Russian agents, we have the Iranian agents, we have terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, operating freely in accordance with the regime. We have the Colombian guerrillas, the drug cartels.”
Babak Mesbahi, a presidium member of the Iranian Pharmacists Association, said sanctions are indirectly choking payment channels and logistics.
“Based on recent officials’ statements, the country’s medicine reserves on average are less than two months,” he said. “Infant formula faces a similar situation, and about 800 items will face shortages over the next three months.”
Mesbahi told Didban Iran that “Sanctions do not directly target medicine and infant formula, but their side effects are entirely palpable. Currency transfers have become difficult and allocation faces problems, and these issues are directly caused by sanctions.”
Asked whether the government has eased FX transfers, Mesbahi said: “As far as I know, nothing specific has been done. Right now there are pro forma invoices that have remained four to five months in the allocation and transfer queue,” he added.
The end of preferential exchange rates on many imported inputs has accelerated price rises for finished medicines and raw materials, according to pharmacists’ associations.
Hadi Ahmadi, a board member of the Iranian Pharmacists Association, said daily currency volatility and rising input costs are pushing up prices, even for common medicines.
“About 70% of production costs – packaging, auxiliaries and other inputs – follow the free-market exchange rate, and only roughly 30% relates to active ingredients, so price increases are unavoidable,” Ahmadi told ILNA.
“When prices rise and insurance does not keep pace, patients either take incomplete regimens or walk away, and the treatment path is disrupted.”
He added that only two to three million doses of influenza vaccine were imported versus a need of six to seven million for a population near 90 million, and distribution was late, which contributed to wider spread of flu.
Pollack’s assessment comes as Iran faces overlapping crises at home and abroad.
The country is under intense economic strain, social dissent has become more visible and the Islamic Republic is recalibrating after military setbacks suffered by the June war with Israel.
Yet despite the pressure, Pollack said the system remains intact for a simple reason.
“Revolutions only succeed when regimes lose either the capacity or the willingness to use force,” he said. “The Islamic Republic learned from 1979. It is determined not to repeat the Shah’s mistake.”
“There is no question this country is in a pre-revolutionary state,” Pollack added. “They’re trying to have a revolution.”
Pollack pointed to Iran’s long cycle of unrest, tracing repeated efforts to challenge the Islamic Republic back to the 1999 student uprising.
Since then, protest waves have erupted every few years, including nationwide demonstrations and the women-led revolt that followed the death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody.
Each time, he said, the population pushed harder, experimented with new tactics and widened the social base of dissent.
What stopped those efforts, Pollack said, was not a lack of public anger but the clerical establishment's consistent readiness to deploy force.
Pollack said episodes of unrest, such as at a public memorial service on Friday for a lawyer who died under mysterious circumstances, highlight the paradox defining Iran today: visible cracks in social control paired with an unflinching security response.
Looking ahead, Pollack identified the eventual death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as the most serious potential inflection point.
At 86, the health of the veteran theocrat has become a subject of quiet speculation even inside Iran. Succession, Pollack warned, can destabilize authoritarian systems by exposing elite rivalries or paralyzing decision-making.
“Succession can just as easily lead to chaos, fragmentation or something worse,” he warned. “These systems often survive by becoming more repressive, not less.”
Pollack also criticized US policy for focusing too narrowly on Iran’s nuclear program while sidelining Iran's regional behavior and domestic repression. He warned that treating nuclear negotiations as the central problem risks missing broader forces shaping Iran’s future.
“The nuclear program is an irritant,” he said. “The real issue is the regime’s drive to dominate the region and its willingness to repress its own population to survive.”
For now, Pollack said, Iran remains suspended in a dangerous middle ground: a society actively trying to change its political fate and a state still capable of stopping it.
“These regimes can endure for a long time,” he said. “But when they finally break, it usually happens faster than anyone expects.”
