Iran International
Heavy Israeli blows on Iran and its armed allies in two years of fighting after October 7, 2023 earned a fragile calm in the region, Mideast analyst Merissa Khurma told Iran International, but only US-Iran diplomacy can win peace.
"The one thing that could perhaps stop or delay the resurgence of Iranian proxies and further disruption of the peace process would be the restarting of negotiations between Iran and the United States, said Khurma, former director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center.
She added that Israel felt increasingly unrestrained in confronting adversaries but that the kaleidoscope of Iran-backed groups in the region were determined to fight back.
“Israel is going to preempt every threat they see as existential,” said Khurma, a longtime watcher of regional events and founder of Washington-based consulting firm AMENA Strategies.
The strikes have weakened Tehran’s network of allies, she said, but the calm is temporary. “Hamas was able to recruit and reboot. Similarly with Hezbollah. They have a recruiting strategy and resources,” Khurma said.
She said sanctions are putting pressure on Iran and have prompted outreach to US President Donald Trump.
“President Trump earlier said the Iranians asked whether US sanctions could be lifted. Also Tehran appears willing to talk but insists Washington stop supporting Israel - a condition the United States is not prepared to meet."
Disarmament demands
Meanwhile a truce in Gaza clinched by US President Donald Trump in October appears to have stalled as Iran-backed Hamas militants have yet to disarm and Israeli attacks have killed hundreds despite a ceasefire.
“A US 20-point plan for Palestinian statehood could help curb militancy, but it requires steady pressure on Israel,” Khurma said. “Hamas should not be part of any future governance in Gaza.”
Khurma addressed serious social challenged in the region as youth frustration and unemployment fuel discontent. She said joblessness has hit 45% in Jordan and 30% in Tunisia, while Moroccans are protesting poor governance.
“Democracy did not get me a job,” Khurma cited a young Tunisian as saying. US aid cuts, shed added, including an 83% reduction in USAID funding, have hampered Washington's ability to address the region's root problems.
“Yet online activism is growing. Afghan women teach despite Taliban bans and regional women’s groups are sustaining themselves, often inspired by Iran’s Woman, Life, Freedom movement,” Khurma said.
Khurma called for a comprehensive US regional strategy that includes phased sanctions relief for Iran in exchange for concessions, investment to counter Iran-backed Iraqi militias and the safeguarding of Palestinian gains via leverage over Israel.
“Without such engagement, never-ending cycles of violence will radicalize youth. Saudi and Egyptian leaders support efforts to weaken extremists, and as Trump doubles down on America First, the region is watching for signs of dialogue over the stalemate,” Khurma said.
The sudden reversal and the stilted language of the announcement of her return in an Instagram post led to concerns by some about her wellbeing.
“I must tell you that I am present in my country, Iran. Undoubtedly, my country, my homeland, and my soil are the safest place in the world for me. As an Iranian, Iran is always my safe home,” the post said. “With the support and help of the Supreme Leader, I will return to the warm family hearth.”
A Quranic verse follows the message in Arabic: “When He decrees a matter, He only says to it, ‘Be,’ and it is.”
Ahmadi, 23, was the only Iranian woman to compete at the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics and had been seen as one of the country’s top alpine skiing prospects.
Ahmadi remained in Europe after a training and competition trip in early 2023 and applied for asylum in Germany, later appearing in media and campaign material that highlighted her story as a refugee athlete.
The announcement sparked mixed reactions among Iranians on social media. Some users accused authorities of pressuring Ahmadi or using her case for propaganda.
Iranian intelligence agents and police have routinely compelled dissidents to recant their views and disavow past activism in social media posts, sometimes even mandating a set number of favorable posts in exchange for restored internet access.
“It’s unclear how they made that place unsafe for the poor girl and how much pressure they put on the family in Iran for her to write ‘My homeland is the safest place in the world for me.’ As long as the Islamic Republic exists, no person in the world will have security,” one user posted on X.
Others framed her decision as a personal choice driven by homesickness, economic insecurity abroad or family ties. Accounts close to the government praised the move.
“Atefeh Ahmadi, the former national athlete of Iran’s skiing team who had sought refuge in Germany, has returned to the country with the support of His Holiness the Supreme Leader,” one account said. “Praise be to God, we have a compassionate leader who, like a father, keeps an eye on all his children and supports them.”
Iranian officials have provided no details about the conditions of Ahmadi’s return, including whether she will rejoin the national team or what guarantees she has received.
