Iran confirms envoy accreditation pending in Lebanon, plays down rift

Pollack’s assessment comes as Iran faces overlapping crises at home and abroad.

The country is under intense economic strain, social dissent has become more visible and the Islamic Republic is recalibrating after military setbacks suffered by the June war with Israel.

Yet despite the pressure, Pollack said the system remains intact for a simple reason.

“Revolutions only succeed when regimes lose either the capacity or the willingness to use force,” he said. “The Islamic Republic learned from 1979. It is determined not to repeat the Shah’s mistake.”

“There is no question this country is in a pre-revolutionary state,” Pollack added. “They’re trying to have a revolution.”

Pollack pointed to Iran’s long cycle of unrest, tracing repeated efforts to challenge the Islamic Republic back to the 1999 student uprising.

Since then, protest waves have erupted every few years, including nationwide demonstrations and the women-led revolt that followed the death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody.

Each time, he said, the population pushed harder, experimented with new tactics and widened the social base of dissent.

What stopped those efforts, Pollack said, was not a lack of public anger but the clerical establishment's consistent readiness to deploy force.

Pollack said episodes of unrest, such as at a public memorial service on Friday for a lawyer who died under mysterious circumstances, highlight the paradox defining Iran today: visible cracks in social control paired with an unflinching security response.

Looking ahead, Pollack identified the eventual death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as the most serious potential inflection point.

At 86, the health of the veteran theocrat has become a subject of quiet speculation even inside Iran. Succession, Pollack warned, can destabilize authoritarian systems by exposing elite rivalries or paralyzing decision-making.

“Succession can just as easily lead to chaos, fragmentation or something worse,” he warned. “These systems often survive by becoming more repressive, not less.”

Pollack also criticized US policy for focusing too narrowly on Iran’s nuclear program while sidelining Iran's regional behavior and domestic repression. He warned that treating nuclear negotiations as the central problem risks missing broader forces shaping Iran’s future.

“The nuclear program is an irritant,” he said. “The real issue is the regime’s drive to dominate the region and its willingness to repress its own population to survive.”

For now, Pollack said, Iran remains suspended in a dangerous middle ground: a society actively trying to change its political fate and a state still capable of stopping it.

“These regimes can endure for a long time,” he said. “But when they finally break, it usually happens faster than anyone expects.”

The newspaper said Lebanon appointed Ahmad Suwaydan as its new ambassador to Iran in October, after which Tehran put forward its corresponding envoy.

However, Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Raji has so far refused to submit the Iranian ambassador's credentials to the cabinet, forward them to the presidency or notify Iran of Lebanon’s approval, the report said.

On Friday, Raji told Al Jazeera that Iran’s role in Lebanon and the wider region has fueled instability, while stressing that Beirut remains open to talks with Tehran if it stops supporting Hezbollah and end what he called its interference in Beirut's affairs.

“Iran’s role in Lebanon and the region has been very negative,” he said. “We have a problem with Iran, but we are open to dialogue, provided it stops interfering in our internal affairs and halts funding an illegal organization in Lebanon.”

Iran has long backed Hezbollah and has resisted international and domestic calls for the group to disarm, arguing that continued Israeli actions justify its armed presence.

Raji’s refusal to process the Iranian ambassador's credentials followed a diplomatic exchange with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who earlier this month invited his Lebanese counterpart to visit Tehran. Raji declined the invitation, citing unfavorable conditions, and proposed meeting in a neutral third country.

In response, Araghchi said he understood Lebanon’s position given ongoing Israeli actions and said he would accept an invitation to visit Beirut. He said Iran also seeks “a new chapter” in relations based on mutual respect and sovereignty.

The US dollar traded above 1,280,000 rials, the euro crossed 1,500,000 rials and the British pound climbed past 1,700,000 rials in Iran’s open market, extending a sustained upward trend.

Gold prices followed the currency rally, with the new-design coin rising beyond 1,380,000,000 rials, reflecting the weaker rial and continued investor demand for inflation hedges.

Inflation and foreign-exchange volatility have intensified since the return of UN sanctions in September and Tehran’s insistence on maintaining its nuclear enrichment program in defiance of the international community's demands.

Britain, France and Germany triggered the so-called snapback mechanism to restore UN sanction under Security Council Resolution 2231, citing Iran's failure to comply with its nuclear obligations.

The move restored UN penalties previously suspended under the resolution, tightening external constraints on Iran’s economy. Tehran denies seeking a nuclear weapon and accuses the United States and European countries of economic warfare.

Over the past year, food prices have risen more than 66 percent on average, squeezing households and straining purchasing power.

Market participants linked the renewed spike to persistent uncertainty over economic management, limited foreign currency supply and expectations of further depreciation.

The repeated record-setting levels have sharpened concerns over purchasing power, as higher exchange rates feed directly into import costs and domestic prices across the economy.

The detainees include the ship’s captain, Iranian media said, citing the judiciary in Hormozgan province. Authorities did not identify the tanker and said an investigation was underway. The semi-official Fars news agency later reported that the crew included nationals of India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

Iranian officials said the tanker was seized on Friday after committing multiple violations, including ignoring stop orders, attempting to flee, and lacking navigation and cargo documentation.

The detention follows a series of vessel seizures announced by Iranian authorities in recent weeks. In mid-November, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy confirmed the seizure of a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker off Iran’s Makran coast. Later in November, the Guards said they seized an Eswatini-flagged vessel in the Persian Gulf carrying about 350,000 liters of smuggled gasoil.

Iran, which maintains low domestic fuel prices through subsidies and has seen its currency weaken sharply, regularly reports interceptions of vessels accused of moving fuel illegally by sea to its Persian Gulf neighbours and by land to neighboring countries.

The Gulf of Oman and the nearby Strait of Hormuz sit along a major route for global energy shipments, where Iranian forces and international shipping have faced repeated disruptions in recent years.

In a video message posted on Telegram, masked spokesman Mahmoud Baluch announced the formation of the new “Popular Fighters Front” on Wednesday which he described as a merger of several Baluch political groups and movements in the restive southeastern region of Iran.

“I am honored to tell the suffering people who long for liberation from the oppression of the rule of the Supreme Leader that the fighters of Sistan and Baluchistan, understanding the country’s critical situation and with the aim of increasing the effectiveness of the struggle” had formed the body, he said.

The announcement came after the new group claimed responsibility for an armed attack which Iranian state media said killed several members of the security forces on Wednesday.

Iran, the United States and several other countries have designated Jaish al-Adl as a terrorist organization, citing its record of bombings, ambushes, kidnappings and suicide attacks targeting the army, border guards and police.

In a written manifesto, the new group said it aims to fight poverty, injustice and discrimination by prioritizing civil action.

“We consider civil activity the natural and legal right of every citizen,” it said. “In this regard, the Popular Fighters Front is pursuing civic, media and political efforts aimed at conveying the people’s voice, raising public awareness and strengthening national cohesion in the face of discrimination and inequality.”

“Civil action must be carried out responsibly, within the law, and with full observance of personal and public security principles,” he added. It did not renounce violence.

Haalvsh, a rights group that documents abuses and unrest in Sistan-Baluchestan, said the merger includes the PADA Baloch Movement, the Nasr-e Baluchestan Movement, Jaish al-Adl, the Mohammad Rasulullah group led by Haji Vahed Bakhsh, as well as groups operating under the label of spontaneous Baloch fighters.

Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice) emerged around 2012 as a successor to Jundullah, after Tehran's capture and execution of Jundullah’s leader Abdelmalek Rigi.

The group operates mainly in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province along the border with Pakistan and says it fights for political and religious rights for Iran’s Sunni Baloch minority in the Shi'ite theocracy.