Russia warns of tensions ahead of IAEA meeting on Iran

As nuclear talks with the United States remain stalled and sanctions continue to choke its economy, Iran is intensifying its eastward pivot by leveraging its full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to deepen economic and strategic ties across Central and South Asia, according to an analysis by Al-Monitor

Central Bank of Iran Governor Mohammad Reza Farzin this week proposed the creation of a joint SCO bank during a central bankers’ summit in Beijing. He said the initiative would reduce reliance on Western institutions like the IMF and World Bank and foster a multilateral financial platform among Eastern states.

Since joining the SCO in July 2023, Iran has pursued trade, infrastructure, and defense partnerships with members such as China, Russia, and India, positioning itself as a regional hub.

Tehran implemented a free trade deal with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union in May, aiming to boost trade to $12 billion and reinforce its role in transport corridors like the North-South Transport Corridor.

“Iran has always identified as a West Asia country looking with interest to Central Asia,” Roberto Neccia, an independent Iran analyst, told Al-Monitor.

“If nuclear talks with the United States fail to produce a comprehensive agreement, “Iran will increase its projection to the region, fully exploiting its potential,” said Neccia.

Geneva-based strategic adviser Torek Farhadi said, “Central Asian states are landlocked, and from a geo-economic standpoint, Iran offers them access to the Persian Gulf.”“There is no real substitute for sanctions relief — the talks remain vital.”

Iran’s hardline daily Javan warned on Sunday that any potential nuclear agreement with the United States would be at risk, arguing US President Donald Trump is likely to abandon or redefine any deal to his advantage.

In a sharply worded editorial, Javan accused Trump of using cognitive tactics such as media pressure, humiliation of adversaries, and narrative dominance to pursue his goals.

The paper said experience with the 2015 nuclear accord showed that “the US lacks lasting commitment to international obligations under populist leadership.”

While the editorial cautioned against optimism about a future deal, it also acknowledged that disengagement from diplomacy altogether could leave Iran vulnerable and strategically paralyzed.

A series of recent developments suggests nuclear talks between Iran and the United States have stalled, significantly increasing the risk of military confrontation, according to an analysis by Iran analyst Morad Veisi.

Veisi identifies ten key indicators of escalating tension, including: a sharp uptick in hostile rhetoric between Tehran and Washington, a complete halt in direct and expert-level negotiations, and a lack of new diplomatic initiatives.

The US has resumed sanctions targeting Iran’s financial networks, while Israel has intensified military drills and regional proxy clashes have surged, the analyst said, adding that Iran is also importing large volumes of rocket fuel chemicals, signaling continued missile program expansion.

Other red flags include the appointment of a hardline US military commander to oversee the Middle East, and a likely censure of Iran by the IAEA Board of Governors, backed by European powers.

He believes that Tehran may be underestimating the potential for direct US or Israeli military action.

A potential visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Tehran may offer a final diplomatic window to avert escalation, Veisi concluded.

Iran must shift from technical diplomacy to strategic political risk-taking to break the deadlock in nuclear talks, the conservative Khorasan daily wrote in an editorial addressed to Ali Shamkhani, a senior adviser to the Supreme Leader.

The paper criticized past reliance on technical negotiations, arguing that US flexibility was driven by domestic economic needs, not Iranian concessions. Now, with Washington demanding full elimination of enrichment, Tehran must recalibrate its strategy.

Khorasan urged Iran to increase economic and geopolitical pressure on the US by initiating controlled regional tensions, deepening strategic talks with China and Russia, and reducing dependence on direct negotiations with Washington.

The editorial warned that continued reliance on US talks weakens Iran’s position globally and regionally, and called on Shamkhani to lead a new, comprehensive strategic plan involving regional diplomacy and alliances.

Nearly two years after stepping down as the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Shamkhani appears determined to maintain influence over Tehran’s nuclear diplomacy.

Iran could take far-reaching steps beyond nuclear measures if Western powers trigger the snapback mechanism following an expected resolution by the IAEA Board of Governors, the hardline Farhikhtegan daily warned on Sunday.

Citing unnamed officials, the paper said Tehran's response may include boosting uranium enrichment to near weapons-grade levels, installing advanced centrifuges at the underground Fordow site, and reducing cooperation with the IAEA — including curbing inspections and disabling surveillance cameras.

The paper also said that Iran’s threat to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), first issued years ago, remains on the table but is now seen as a minimum response, given Iran's enhanced enrichment capabilities.

“The time for symbolic threats is over,” Farhikhtegan wrote.