Trump says US stockpiles remain strong, Iran runs low on weapons

Images from the briefing showed spokesperson Esmail Baghaei speaking from a podium inside Mahalati School in Tehran. Iranian outlets said the school had been hit in recent attacks and presented the setting as evidence that educational facilities were being targeted.

Holding an official briefing in a classroom also prompted renewed speculation online that some officials may be seeking to operate from civilian buildings.

In recent days, social media users have circulated videos and photographs that appear to show security forces stationed inside schools in Tehran and Shiraz.

Iran International has also reported on security activity inside medical facilities. In one case, it cited a hospital employee who said military commanders held meetings inside a Tehran hospital.

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  IRGC commanders hold meetings in hospitals, sources say

Military presence in civilian sites

Teachers’ unions have voiced alarm. The Coordinating Council of Iranian Teachers’ Trade Associations published an image a day before US-Israeli strikes began showing what it said was military equipment positioned inside a school, warning that classrooms were being turned into “shields for deadly equipment.”

Earlier this week, an image was released from a meeting of the interim leadership council, attended by President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei and cleric Alireza Arafi.

Hours later, social media posts suggested the meeting had taken place in a ward at Tehran’s Arman Hospital.

International humanitarian law requires parties to distinguish between civilians and combatants, and between civilian objects and military objectives.

Schools and hospitals are protected unless, and for such time as, they are used for military purposes, and the use of civilians to shield military objectives is prohibited.

Disputed strike in Minab

The controversy intensified after Iranian media reported that an elementary and preschool complex in Minab, Hormozgan province, adjacent to an IRGC compound, was struck on February 28, killing more than 160 people.

Asked about the incident, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States would not deliberately target a school and that its objectives were focused on missiles, related manufacturing and launch capabilities, and drones.

"We would have no interest and frankly no incentive to target civilian infrastructure.”

Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, said on Monday he had seen differing accounts of what happened in Minab, including claims that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards were responsible. He said Israel targets military assets and expressed regret for civilian casualties.

“We regret the loss of life of any civilian. And we pray for the people of Iran. But we have the intelligence and we target military assets. That’s what we do. The Iranians, they do exactly the opposite,” he said.

As the conflict deepens, any overlap between official or security activity and civilian sites could increase the risks for densely populated areas and raise further legal and humanitarian concerns.

According to senior executives at Chinese state-owned gas firms briefed by government officials, Beijing had urged Iranian counterparts not to target oil and liquefied natural gas tankers transiting the narrow waterway and to refrain from striking key export hubs such as Qatar.

China buys the vast majority of Iran’s oil, providing Tehran with a crucial economic lifeline. But the world’s largest energy importer depends more broadly on Persian Gulf supplies, with both crude and LNG cargoes passing through Hormuz.

Qatar accounts for roughly a fifth of global LNG supply and provides about 30% of China’s LNG imports, the executives said. The country is the world’s second-largest LNG producer after the United States.

Asian buyers take more than 80% of Qatar’s LNG shipments, according to data from analytics firm Kpler.

Reuters reported on Tuesday that India began rationing natural gas as countries across Asia moved to secure alternative supplies after conflict in the Middle East disrupted shipping and halted Qatari output.

Officials and executives in Japan, Taiwan, Bangladesh and Pakistan said they did not expect an immediate impact because some cargoes due this month had already arrived, but would diversify imports and buy spot LNG if the war drags on.

The Turkish government also plans to implement a fuel scheme to reduce the impact of rising global oil prices on inflation, according to Reuters on Tuesday.

Tanker traffic through the strait has largely stalled since US and Israeli strikes over the weekend and Iran’s subsequent missile attacks across the region.

According to US Central Command, the Strait of Hormuz is not closed despite statements by Iranian officials.

On Monday, Qatar halted production at Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG export facility, after an Iranian drone attack, marking the first full shutdown in nearly three decades of operations.

Chinese energy importers have been told Beijing is seeking to ensure vessels continue moving through Hormuz, the executives told Bloomberg.

Publicly, China has made limited comment. Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi on Monday that while Beijing supports efforts to safeguard national security, Tehran should heed the “reasonable concerns” of its neighbors, according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement.

At a regular briefing, a ministry spokesperson said China was “deeply concerned” about the widening conflict.

Analysts say the immediate economic impact on China may be manageable, though higher oil prices could add to inflationary pressures.

“I think that is a big miscalculation on the part of Iran,” Petraeus told 24 with Fardad Farahzad Show, arguing that striking Arab countries that had sought to avoid direct involvement could push them to contribute more directly to regional defense efforts.

US and Israeli forces, Petraeus said, have already “dramatically degraded” Iran’s retaliatory capabilities, though he cautioned it was too early to determine whether the decline in attacks over the past 12 to 24 hours signaled a lasting shift.

“I think it's premature at this point to judge whether or not that will degrade further or if the volume can pick back up,” he said.

Coalition dynamics shift

Petraeus said Tehran’s decision to target regional states – including those that did not allow their bases to be used for operations – may alter the strategic calculus across the Persian Gulf.

Many countries in the region, he said, are already contributing to an integrated air and missile defense network that includes US-supplied Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense systems, along with naval assets and aircraft capable of intercepting incoming projectiles.

While he stopped short of predicting expanded offensive participation, Petraeus said additional Western powers could also align more closely with the effort. “I’m confident they are all taking part in the defensive efforts that are ongoing,” he said.

Uncertain path to political change

Addressing whether military pressure could lead to political transformation inside Iran, Petraeus said any lasting shift would depend primarily on internal fractures within the security forces and leadership.

“The sad reality in such cases often is that the most guys with the most guns and the most willing to be brutal to the people prevail,” he said, cautioning against assumptions that external air campaigns alone can bring about regime collapse.

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  Iranians face war with fear, joy and hope

Petraeus described exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi as a symbolic presence who has outlined a transition toward an elected government rather than dismantling all existing institutions.

Ultimately, he said, momentum would hinge on whether influential insiders conclude that continued confrontation has become unsustainable, shaping not only Iran’s future but the broader balance of power across the Middle East.

Despite the historic symbolism of his death, the system Khamenei built was designed to withstand precisely this kind of shock.

Power in Iran was never concentrated solely in one man, but embedded across military, political and security institutions capable of functioning even in the absence of a supreme leader.

“The Islamic Republic is not a one-bullet state,” Behnam Ben Taleblu told Iran International, arguing that one of Khamenei’s lasting achievements was institutionalizing authority across the regime.

Iran’s defense and repression capabilities remain dispersed across the country’s provinces, allowing missile launches, drone operations and internal security functions to continue despite leadership losses.

The Islamic Republic has continued firing missiles and drones despite the elimination of senior figures, showing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps can sustain operations through a decentralized chain of command.

Decentralized power

Behind the scenes, however, the question of succession is fast becoming the Islamic Republic’s central uncertainty.

Jason Brodsky of United Against Nuclear Iran said power has become “diffuse,” now resting formally with a three-person interim leadership council while multiple political and clerical figures compete for influence.

“There used to be a centralized address for the final decision-making. Now there’s a wider array of people. So it’s flatter," said Brodsky.

Potential candidates, he said, include members of the interim leadership structure such as Alireza Arafi and Chief Justice Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, as well as other clerical figures outside the council.

Brodsky pointed to Hassan Khomeini – grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder – alongside conservative clerics including Mohammad Mahdi Mirbagheri, Mohsen Araki and Mohsen Qomi as individuals to watch.

At the same time, senior political figures such as Ali Larijani and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf remain influential actors shaping decision-making during the transition.

“With Khamenei and his family gone, that really leaves the succession race wide open,” Brodsky said.

Analysts say Tehran may delay formally appointing a new supreme leader during wartime, as any successor would immediately become a high-value military target.

On Tuesday, a member of Iran’s Assembly of Experts said choosing a new supreme leader would not take long, adding the body would make its decision based on religious criteria and its own judgment rather than individual preferences or political factions. Ali Moalemi added the body would select a person similar to Khamenei.

Attacking neighbors: Why?

Externally, Iran appears determined to widen the confrontation rather than retreat. Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute said Islamic Republic leaders are likely to regionalize the conflict in an effort to increase pressure on Washington and its partners.

“They will stay in this fight as long as they can,” Vatanka said, adding that Tehran is attempting to “put pressure on Trump” by expanding instability beyond its borders.

Events across the Persian Gulf suggest that escalation is already underway. Iranian officials have threatened to target shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while an oil tanker was reportedly struck and forced to halt transit.

US-allied Persian Gulf states are bearing the brunt of retaliatory strikes.

In the United Arab Emirates, missiles and falling debris struck civilian areas in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, damaging luxury hotels, high-rise apartment towers and airport infrastructure – locations never designed to withstand ballistic missile or drone attacks.

Similar attacks and interceptions were reported in Bahrain and near Doha, as Iran targeted countries hosting US military forces, signaling a shift from purely military targets to economic and civilian centers across the Persian Gulf.

Attacks on regional energy infrastructure forced shutdowns at major Saudi and regional oil and gas facilities, sending global oil prices sharply higher.

US Central Command confirmed four American service members were killed following Iranian attacks in the region, while US forces struck Iranian naval and missile assets.

Speaking at the White House on Monday, US President Donald Trump signaled Washington is preparing for a longer campaign than initially anticipated.

“From the beginning, we projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that, we’ll do it,” Trump said, dismissing suggestions the United States might seek a quick exit.

“I don’t get bored.”

He framed the operation as a decisive effort to eliminate what he called “the intolerable threats posed by this sick and sinister regime,” insisting the United States would continue operations “whatever it takes.”

If Tehran had hoped escalation would shorten the war, early signals from Washington, Brodsky said, suggest the opposite may be unfolding.

Brodsky said much of Iran’s response is continuing through pre-planned wartime contingencies.

“A lot of the decision-making right now is essentially on autopilot,” he said, adding that the Revolutionary Guards’ decentralized structure allows operations to continue even amid leadership losses.

Even so, analysts say the balance of military power remains heavily tilted against Tehran, raising questions about how long the Islamic Republic can sustain simultaneous external confrontation and internal strain.

While scenes of celebration followed news of Khamenei’s death inside Iran, many Iranians recognize that removing one leader does not automatically dismantle a system built over more than four decades on repression.

"The bravery of the Iranian people and the sacrifice of the Iranian people. Too much blood has been spilled for historical opportunities to be missed. And I think no one knows that better than the Iranian people," said Taleblu.

“The question now is whether there is a plan for the day after,” said Vatanka.

“From the beginning, we projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that, we'll do it," Trump said on Monday. "Whatever somebody said today, they said, Oh, well, President wants to do it really quickly. After that, he'll get bored. I don't get bored.”

Trump said while the campaign was initially expected to last four to five weeks, Washington is prepared to sustain operations as long as necessary.

His remarks come after he told the New York Post he would not rule out deploying American ground troops “if they were necessary,” while describing the military operation — dubbed Operation Epic Fury — as already “way ahead of schedule.”

The operation, launched Saturday in a joint US-Israel strike on Tehran, killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted key military and leadership infrastructure.

Speaking Monday, Trump framed the campaign as a decisive effort to neutralize what he called an existential threat posed by Tehran.

“This was our last best chance to strike what we're doing right now and eliminate the intolerable threats posed by this sick and sinister regime and they are indeed sick and sinister,” he said.

Trump outlined four primary objectives: destroying Iran’s missile capabilities, dismantling its naval forces, preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, and stopping the regime from arming and directing proxy groups abroad.

“First, we're destroying Iran's missile capabilities, and you see that happening on an hourly basis,” he said. “Second, we're annihilating their navy. We've knocked out already 10 ships. They're at the bottom of the sea.”

He added, “We're ensuring that the world's number one sponsor of terror can never obtain a nuclear weapon. Never going to have a nuclear weapon.”

In remarks to CNN earlier, Trump said the US military is “knocking the crap” out of Iran but warned a larger phase of operations may still be ahead, urging civilians inside Iran to remain indoors because conditions were unsafe.

US service members killed

The White House address also struck a somber tone as Trump confirmed four US service members were killed following Iranian attacks in the region.

“Today, we grieve for the four heroic American service members who have been killed in action, and send our love and support to their families,” he said.

“In their memory, we continue this mission with ferocious, unyielding resolve to crush the threat this terrorist regime poses to the American people.”

US Central Command confirmed the fatalities Monday, underscoring the growing regional escalation as Iran launched new waves of attacks on US bases, according to Iranian state media.

Regional tensions intensified further after the United Arab Emirates said its air defenses intercepted nine Iranian ballistic missiles, six cruise missiles and dozens of drones, while Qatar announced it had shot down two Iranian Su-24 bombers.

Energy markets were also shaken as drone strikes forced shutdowns at a major Saudi refinery and oil and gas facilities in Israel and Iraq’s Kurdish region, pushing global oil prices sharply higher.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth described the campaign as “limited and decisive,” saying the objective is to destroy Iran’s missile and nuclear threats rather than launch an open-ended war.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday it had no indication Iran’s nuclear facilities suffered major damage, though Tehran’s envoy claimed the Natanz enrichment site was struck.

Iranian state media also reported that Mansoureh Khojasteh Bagherzadeh, the wife of Ali Khamenei, died following the US-Israeli airstrikes.

Trump insisted the United States holds overwhelming military advantage.

“We have the strongest and most powerful by far military in the world, and we will easily prevail,” he said. “We're already substantially ahead of our time projections. But whatever the time is, it's okay. Whatever it takes, we will.”