IAEA's Grossi Continues Talks In Iran And Speaks About Cooperation

Grossi who will report to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors traveled to Iran for discussions over the origins of uranium particles enriched to 83.7% purity, which was identified after Iran implemented a new configuration in cascade of centrifuges at Fordow enrichment plant about 100 kilometers (60 miles) south of the capital.

Details of the meeting have not yet been released. Iranian officials have remained tight-lipped and Grossi usually speaks to reporters after he leaves Iran. He is also scheduled to meet with President Ebrahim Raisi.

Iran has been exceeding enrichment levels set by the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) since 2019, after the United States withdrew from the agreement and imposed sanctions. But the excess enrichment had not exceeded 60-percent purity so far.

In addition to the new issue of highly enriched particles found, the IAEA also wants full explanation by Iran about traces of fissile material found from older nuclear sites.

Pundits say by inviting Grossi to Tehran ahead of an IAEA board meeting later this month Iran is seeking to prevent another censure resolution at the upcoming IAEA board meeting next week. Tehran wants to avoid further international isolation amid economic problems amid protests that have continued since late September despite the arrest of thousands and the killing of at least 500 protesters.

“We should completely give up the possibility of talks to revive the JCPOA if Mr. Grossi’s report to the board of directors is negative,” Ali Bigdeli, an international relations analyst in Tehran, told the Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA) Friday.

Bigdeli added that there are considerable differences between Washington and Tehran over the extent of Iran's enrichment program because Tehran does not want to return to the enrichment levels it agreed to in 2015, therefore, he said, it is quite possible that any agreements in the near future be limited to prisoner exchange, the release of Iran's frozen funds, and respite from some sanctions instead of a full suspension of sanctions.

Other commentators have recently emphasized the urgency of shifting Tehran's foreign policy from a Russia and China axis to a more neutral position and avoid getting entangled in Russia's war on Ukraine. Otherwise, there will be no hope of reaching a deal with the West.

Iran’s Atomic Energy Agency claims that the 83.7 purity particles found could have been formed due to “unintended fluctuations in enrichment levels”.

Eslami said Wednesday that Iran and the IAEA solved the issue of 84% uranium and that a delegation from the UN nuclear watchdog traveled to Tehran to look into the issue. “It transpired that there were no deviations,” he claimed.

After a meeting with his Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein in Baghdad on February 22, Amir-Abdollahian said the message from the US side conveyed to him suggested that an agreement to revive the 2015 deal was within reach, while accusing the US of sending “positive diplomatic” followed by contradictory media messages.

The US state department, however, denied sending messages to Iran through Iraq. “Only Iranian officials can speak to why they continue to tell these lies. Iranian officials can repeat their line as often as they want, but it doesn’t change the underlying facts,” State Department Spokesperson Ned Price said in a news briefing February 27.

“A revival of the JCPOA has not been on the agenda for months. We have not conveyed any message to the contrary. I can’t speak to why Iranian officials may be trying to deceive the rest of the world,” Price stated.

Mehdi Motaharnia, political analyst, told Nameh News Wednesday that the Iranian officials’ very positive tone aims at preventing further depreciation of the national currency and calming the chaos in the forex market.

The IAEA Director General, Rafael Grossi is visiting Iran this weekend, a move which will have implications globally.

The US Special Envoy for Iran, Rob Malley, announced that the United States would decide its next steps on the back of the visit, to conclude the level of compliance regarding its nuclear obligations.
“We’re in very close contact with the E3 and others around the globe who are concerned about Iran’s nuclear program, and we’ll decide at that point,” Malley said, speaking to at a J Street forum on Thursday.

Much hangs in the balance as the world awaits the results. The US and EU seemingly at odds over whether Iran should be censured at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting next week over traces of 84% enriched uranium detected at Iran’s underground Fordo facility in January.

The Wall Street Journal’s deputy Brussels bureau chief Laurence Norman said Friday that the Europeans will not move to censure Iran at the IAEA board meeting next week without US support. The issue is that he believes the Biden Administration is not inclined to do that.

“Iran tends to react to a censor by escalating its actions, either escalating its nuclear work or further restricting the ability of the IAEA inspectors to keep an eye on what Iran's doing. And I think there's a concern that that could very quickly lead to a crisis, which of course would be a crisis on top of the Russia one,’ he said

“Regardless of what we do, our concerns about Iran exist, and they’re not going away,” Malley said during the J street discussion, citing concerns about the country's lack of cooperation with the IAEA.

"There are still a number of outstanding questions that they have repeatedly refused to answer; [including] the discovery of particles of uranium enriched at roughly 84%. We need some explanation as to that, and we’re… waiting for the IAEA’s…own assessment, and many other issues that the IAEA will raise with them.”
Grossi's short visit which will conclude Saturday night, was instigated by the Islamic Republic, according to an IAEA tweet.

Tehran has shown in the past that it pays attention to the IAEA board meeting and usually makes a gesture of dialogue and diplomatic interaction prior to these meetings, hoping to prevent a damaging resolution.

Malley said it is believed that Iran has made new requests, but the outcome of the visit will depend on the government's transparency, which as yet, Malley said it has "failed to do now for a very long time".

The IAEA recently said it would not drop its probes into the nuclear capabilities of the Islamic Regime and its past nuclear activities including traces of uranium found at previously undeclared sites three years ago.

Depending on the results, a trigger mechanism could be activated, meaning harsher sanctions on the regime.

Upon arrival at the airport,Rafael Grossi was welcomed by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran’s spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi, a deputy of the body’s head Mohammad Eslami.

According to a diplomatic source, Grossi is scheduled to meet with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi early Saturday morning, hoping to "relaunch the dialogue.” "Grossi wants to have the opportunity to restart the relationship at the highest level," the European source added.

A US State Department official said Wednesday that Washington is waiting for the head of the UN nuclear watchdog to meet with Iranian officials before deciding on its next steps in response to Tehran’s nuclear escalations, Al Arabiya reported.

The visit comes amid discussions with Tehran on the origin of uranium particles enriched to up to 83.7% purity, very close to weapons grade, at its Fordow enrichment plant, a report by the watchdog confirmed earlier in the week. Iran has rejected the claims of enrichment up to that level, with Eslami saying on Wednesday that the Islamic Republic's production is at 60 percent.

Iran began violating the 2015 nuclear deal’s (JCPOA) enrichment limit set at 3.67 percent in 2019 when the Trump administration imposed full oil export sanctions, but until the Biden administration came to office higher enrichment had stayed at around 5 percent. The UN watchdog has been demanding other explanations from Tehran about its secret nuclear work before 2003 and so far there has been no resolution.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Senate weekly bipartisan luncheon on Tuesday, Senator Bob Menendez told Iran International: “I don't know what it will take for the administration to understand that Iran is not changing its ways, on the contrary it's doubling down."

Menendez has been in the US Congress since 1993 and is known for his measured tone and composed articulations but in a rare expression of frustration, he said: "There should be a clear set of actions that sends a message to the regime in Iran that their behavior will have consequences."

He is one of many in the Congress whose patience is wearing thin. The Biden administration, which in March 2021 said that Trump's maximum pressure campaign is a failure, continued with those set of sanctions and has been gradually adding more to that.

As Iran inches closer to military grade enriched uranium, it is notable that the US Congress is getting further frustrated with regards to the Biden administration's policy on Iran. Republicans have kept almost all their ranks together on criticizing Biden for it, but they don't seem to have a strategy to deal with Iran.

Some Democrats still have not given up on a nuclear deal with the Islamic republic, but they are split on what to do next. War with Iran will dim the chances of reelection in a war weary America and the President's approval ratings are not strong. But there are also many Democrats who demand a tougher policy toward Iran.

Patrick Clawson, Senior fellow and Director of research at Washington Institute said that as Iran continues to find ways of evading sanctions, the international community must be vigilant. "There are always steps that can be taken to increase sanctions enforcement. Iran creatively comes up with new ways to evade sanctions and the challenge for the United States Government is to stay up to date in cracking down on the latest evasion mechanisms”, he said.

As military activity steps up, that too, casts a different light on the global stage. From Israel’s shadow war with Iran to the US drills with Israel and other allies, there are fears escalation is not far away.

Since the Abraham Accords signed in 2020 brought diplomatic relations between Israel and some of its Gulf neighbors, namely the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, the arena is becoming more complex. Fears of Iran's capabilities are rippling not only across the region, but globally.

“The drills with the Israelis have become much more explicitly anti-Iran,” Clawson told Iran International. “That could accelerate. So too could the long-standing efforts to persuade GCC states to cooperate on early warning for air defense, on which there has been some notable progress, at long last.”

As military experts increasingly believe Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear progress leaves Israel - Iran’s arch enemy - with little choice but to take military action, there is a real worry that Middle East stability is shaking.

In an exclusive interview, Senator Jim Risch, who has been in regular talks with Israel's hardline Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since his return to office, said: “Everything Iran has been doing that is bad behavior, always endangers the environment in the Middle East." He said "each and every one" of his meetings with Netanyahu have had Iran at their core.

However, with domestic issues at home pointing to a potential third intifada on the horizon and civil unrest tearing the country apart, Clawson believes Netanyahu and the Biden administration do not feel Iran is the number one issue they face.

Neither is eager for a full-scale confrontation with Iran and it is no secret that Netanyahu is a fan of covert strikes, not only against the nuclear program but also the drones and precision-missile project, an issue the Biden team steadfastly refuses to be drawn into publicly. “Many in the White House think Israeli covert strikes are ineffective or counterproductive because Iran retaliates by reducing IAEA access,” Clawson added.

As options begin to run dry as to how best to deal with Iran's rogue behavior in spite of sanctions, Senator Josh Hawley has suggested radical new steps be taken. "I think it is good to delegitimize the current government of Iran which ought to be treated as a pariah government. I think a part of what the US government must continue to do is to empower allies and partners in the region to disempower Iran, rather than empower it, which is what this current administration I think has tried to do."

Anne-Claire Legendre, Spokesperson of the French ministry of foreign affairs said news of Iran enriching uranium to near 84 percent is “extremely serious".

“This report states that the direction Iran is taking is very concerning,” she said on Thursday, about the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) monitoring result.

IAEA chief, Rafael Grossi, will meet Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran on Saturday at the invitation of the government.

The IAEA hopes to “relaunch the dialogue” on the country’s atomic work in the wake of news that Iran is dangerously close to producing weapon’s grade uranium. The visit could fill a vital diplomatic vacuum in the wake of the breakdown of talks to revive the JCPOA with the US.

The global body confirmed Tuesday that it has detected uranium particles with a purity of 83.7%, while to produce a nuclear bomb uranium with a purity of 90% is needed. However, last week, Tehran claimed it had not made any attempt to enrich uranium beyond 60 percent.

It is possible that the "spike" was accidental, though this one was relatively large, diplomats said.

The IAEA has blamed Iran for failing to inform the body of substantial changes made to the two clusters of advanced centrifuges enriching uranium to up to 60% purity.

The Islamic Republic has been enriching uranium well over the limits laid down in the landmark 2015 deal with the P5+1 group of countries, which started to fall apart when Washington withdrew from it in 2018.