Rishi Sunak: ‘Hawk’ On Iran?
While new British prime minister Rishi Sunak is expected to concentrate on pressing domestic issues, he may change emphasis in Middle East policy.
While new British prime minister Rishi Sunak is expected to concentrate on pressing domestic issues, he may change emphasis in Middle East policy.
A member of parliament since only 2015, Sunak has suggested the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement – the JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – should be strengthened, that Britain should consider moving its Israel embassy to Jerusalem, and that it should strengthen links with Arab monarchies in the Persian Gulf.
Reports of Sunak’s views of Iran come partly from close allies. Former defense secretary Liam Fox told the National newspaper in August said that Sunak was “more hawkish” than the foreign office.
“He would want to see maximum sanctions put on to see whether Iran could be persuaded or forced into a wider agreement that goes beyond just the nuclear program,” Fox said.“He believes the JCPOA doesn’t actually stop Iran's nuclear program, it merely delays it...”
Fox did not explain whether Sunak saw a wider agreement – sometimes called ‘JCPOA+’ and covering security issues like Iran’s ballistic missiles – as a next step from a revived JCPOA or rather as an alternative.
Another ally, Conservative member of parliament Theresa Villiers wrote in the London-based Jewish News in August that Sunak had told her of “his concern that the UK government has not taken the threat posed by Iran seriously enough.”
Sunak has clearly expressed desire for tight relations with the Arab Gulf monarchies and for encouraging more to follow Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates in ‘normalizing’ tries with Israel despite the absence of a Palestinian state. “The UK is in a strong position to leverage its historic relationships with other Gulf states to widen the accords and I would like to see UK diplomats place a greater focus on this,” Sunak told the Jewish Chronicle in August.
Sunak told the Conservative Friends of Israel, also in August, that the UK should consider moving its embassy in recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. This has been done only by the Guatemala, Honduras, Kosovo, and the United States. Other states, and the European Union, say this pre-empts settlement over Palestinian statehood.
Sunak has also spoken out against rights organizations, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch describing Israeli occupation ‘apartheid.’ He has accused the Palestinian Authority of “glorification of terror attacks.”
‘Friends and allies’
Sunak was outspoken over the August 12 attack on author Salman Rushdie in New York state, which he described as a “wake-up call for the west.” But his suggestion as a leadership candidate that those who “vilify Britain” or who were “vocal in their hatred of our country” should be closely monitored proved controversial, at least beyond members of the Conservative Party.
Keeping James Cleverly as foreign secretary, despite a wide reshuffle from the short-lived administration of Liz Truss, may signal Sunak’s desire for continuity in foreign policy at a time of severe domestic challenges and when his government is deeply unpopular.
While Sunak supported Britain leaving the European Union in the 2016 referendum, his early telephone call as prime minister to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, when he spoke of “working together as friends and allies,” suggests he may seek a conciliatory relationship.
While the EU has not followed the US over Jerusalem, it has moved closer to the US over Iran policy since Joe Biden became president in January 2021. Rob Malley, the White House Iran envoy, on Monday emphasized the value placed by the Biden administration on the US this improved relationship, both over Iran and the Ukraine crisis, given the divisions of the Trump presidency.
Some suggest that talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal may revive after the November 8 US mid-term elections. Others feel the talks are at an end. Either way, Sunak’s input may be maintaining close British relationships with both the US and EU.
Nikol Pashinyan and Ebrahim Raisi held a joint press conference following their meeting, reiterating their goal to improve bilateral relations and sign documents for strengthening cooperation.
Raisi said he was sure the visit by the Armenian official will be a turning point in enhancement of bilateral relations, claiming that their trade exchanges have grown by 43 percent over the past few months.
In October, the Islamic Republic opened a consulate in Armenia's Syunik province, which includes Armenia’s narrow southern strip called Zangezur where it has a land border with Iran.
Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, demands a transit corridor through Syunik province to have access to its Nakhichevan Autonomous region without Armenian checkpoints.
However, Yerevan objects to the concept saying that it is a breach of the ceasefire signed after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, that Azerbaijan won, taking back vast territories that Armenia had conquered in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict in the early 1990s.
Iran supports Yerevan in this dispute as it might lose its only joint border with its de facto ally Armenia and Caucasus. In mid-September, Iran warned that it would not tolerate any seizure of territory from Armenia by Azerbaijan.
Armenia accuses Azerbaijan of attacking its towns to avoid negotiations over the status of the mainly Armenian-populated enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan, an enclave which is inside Azerbaijan but populated mainly by ethnic Armenians.
Tehran in the past has also expressed alarm at alleged Israeli military presence in Azerbaijan.
Foreign ministry spokesman Naser Kanaani in his weekly briefing on Monday said that the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) is an official military organization of the Islamic Republic and sanctioning it would be “a totally illegal act.”
“Statements by German officials about sanctioning the IRGC, following unconstructive and irresponsible actions by this country, emanates from their wrong approach toward the government and people of Iran,” Kanaani claimed. He added, Iran “hopes that Germany and other countries who have a plan in this regard, will pay attention to their unconstructive actions and not sacrifice their bilateral relations to passing political issues and emotional decisions.”
Iran’s security forces have killed at least 270 citizens since protests broke out in mid-September when a 22-year-old woman, Mahsa Amini was killed in ‘morality police’ custody. The government has deployed tens of thousands of regular IRGC troops, its Basij militia and plainclothes agents to attack protesters. Thousands have been arrested and more than 1,000 already indicted for participating in demonstrations.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Sunday that her country and the European Union were examining whether to classify Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization for its use of violence in the protests.
"I made it clear last week that we will launch another package of sanctions, that we will examine how we can also list the Revolutionary Guards [IRGC] as a terrorist organization," Baerbock said in an interview with ARD broadcaster on Sunday.
The IRGC is already listed as a terrorist organization by the United States and Tehran tried hard during the long nuclear negotiations in 2021 and 2022 to have Washington lift the designation. The Biden Administration called such demands extraneous to the nuclear talks.
The negotiations have paused since August over Iran’s demands, which are unacceptable for the United States. When Tehran adopted its position in response to an EU draft proposal, protests had not started and now it finds itself in more international isolation than two months ago.
US and Albania have also proposed an informal UN Security Council meeting to discuss the situation in Iran. The format of the meeting is called the “Arria formula”, after its originator, Diego Arria, a Venezuelan ambassador who in 1992 initiated the first informal meeting of the Council to discuss the crisis in former Yugoslavia. The meetings take place in a non-rigid setup where member states can hear comments by individuals and non-state actors.
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman on Monday dismissed the significance of the meeting and claimed that the aim of the meeting is to put “political pressure on the Islamic Republic,” and is the continuation of a clear policy of interference by the American government in Iran’s internal developments.”
Kanaani criticized the US for planning to ask Iranian expatriate activists to testify during the informal Security Council meeting, calling such individuals “known elements” with Iranian identity, who in the past never raised their voice against US sanctions.
The spokesman again repeated Iranian denials about supplying military drones to Russia used against civilian targets in Ukraine. Kanaani said that Tehran has never supplied weapons to the warring sides. The denials come as the United States and others have raised strong objections to the deployment of mostly suicide drones and Ukraine has produced evidence obtained from downed UAVs.
The prime minister, who attended a large gathering of Iranians in Ottawa with his wife, said probably when the regime changes and the situation gets better in Iran, those responsible for oppressing the people will never be forgotten and will never be allowed to come to Canada.
Trudeau is the first Western leader to acknowledge that current protests in Iran can bring about regime change.
In a powerful show of solidarity with the people in Iran, hundreds gathered in the Canadian capital on Saturday to speak out against Iran’s religious, authoritarian government.
Demonstrators formed a human chain, tramped their feet, and chanted Mahsa Amini’s name. She was the young woman whose death in September sparked the uprising in Iran.
Iran has been gripped by six weeks of protests that swept the country when Amini, 22, was arrested for not following Iran’s strict dress rules for women known as hijab. She received fatal head injuries in police custody and died on September 16.
“We will stand with you, I will march with you, and I will hold hands with you,” Trudeau said, adding “We will continue to stand with this beautiful community and demonstrate to the world that we will not forget Mahsa Amini.”
Elsewhere in his remarks Trudeau stressed, “We know there are people in Canada now who have benefited from the corrupt, from the horrific regime in Iran and who are hiding amongst ... this beautiful community.”
In recent years, several Iranian officials accused of corruption or human rights abuses have been seen in Canada, either permanently or on a trip.
One of them was Mahmoud-Reza Khavari, the former CEO of the state-owned Melli Bank, who fled to Canada in 2010, after being accused of embezzling billions of dollars.
The other was Morteza Talaei the former commander of Tehran’s police force. He was in office when the regime beat the Canadian-Iranian journalist Zahra Kazemi to death in Evin Prison in 2003. A photograph was published on social media showing him at a gym near Toronto in 2020. His presence in Canada sparked outrage among Iranians who urged the government to expel officials and agents of the Islamic Republic.
During the rally on Saturday Trudeau said “Taking advantage of Canada's freedoms, Canada's opportunities, and using the riches they stole from the Iranian people to live a good life in Canada. Well, we say no more.”
The Canadian premier also noted that his government will be working to ensure his country is never again a safe haven for “killers, murderers, and those responsible for the oppression of Iranian people.”
Trudeau also raised his fist chanting slogans in Persian saying, “We will stand with you. I’ll march with you, I will hold hands with you. We will continue to stand with this beautiful community.”
After his statements, Trudeau accompanied hundreds of protesters in a march across the city.
Iranian diaspora also held similar demonstrations and formed human chains in other cities from Australian to Berlin and to Canada, including, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver.
The shift in the Trudeau cabinet's approach to Iran comes as he was criticized earlier on Iranian social media for not participating at any event or demonstration related to Iran.
Many believe the Canadian government has realized the facts on the ground have changed and increasing pressure by the Iranian-Canadians has finally brought about a change in policy.
The unprecedented protests that have rocked more than 100 cities since mid-September have now challenged the legitimacy of regime’s rule.
As supreme leader Ali Khamenei tries to quell the protests, every day a new move by Iranians inside and outside the country startles his regime.
The United States has time and again announced that in the current situation it will not hold negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, but president Ebrahim Raisi’s team at the foreign ministry keep making false claims about the willingness of the West for talks. These claims seem to be an attempt to make up for the legitimacy crisis that is tightening the noose on the clerical government in the light of intense public protests.
Supreme leader Khamenei, who considers himself the embodiment of the “sovereignty of God” on earth, seems to be unable to show “heroic flexibility” this time to save his rule. Khamenei first used the term in 2013 when he acknowledged that he had allowed negotiations with the West over Iran’s nuclear program.
Decades of political repression, pervasive corruption, and mismanagement have eroded public confidence in the government and now with the help of Iranian diaspora the West is under pressure to get tough with the clerical regime.
The United States has openly stated that its “focus” now is on “the remarkable bravery and courage that the Iranian people are exhibiting through their peaceful demonstrations”, and the EU has come up with new sanctions on Tehran since the protests began.
Iran’s supply of drones to Russia in its war against Ukraine has also made the situation worse for the Islamic Republic.
During previous antigovernment protests in Iran since 1999, the West had usually stayed aloof, not showing strong support for the protesters who mostly remained unknown to foreigners. This time, the world is paying more attention, as the unrest began with the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman, which garnered strong sympathy around the globe. At the same time Iran’s unwillingness to compromise on the nuclear issue and its military assistance to Russia persuaded the US and even Germany to adopt tougher positions.
The situation now is so awkward that pundits inside the country are warning the government of the consequences of its misguided domestic and foreign policies.
In an interview with Nameh website, Iranian political analyst Amir Ali Abolfat’h said that with these policies, the situation will not change, and negative conditions will continue to bedevil the regime.
“The [continuation] of verbal attacks and propaganda war of the parties [Iran and the West] will worsen the atmosphere for public diplomacy as a result,” he added.
In his opinion, Iranian officials are making “optimistic statements” about the fate of the nuclear deal, but the US and its three European allies show “no sign of a return to the 2015 nuclear deal”.
The Iranian regime should understand that without public legitimacy it cannot reach agreements with the international community, the commentator added.
Hardliners must know that they cannot quell the protests indefinitely because young Iranians, who comprise almost 65% of the country’s population, are weary of decades of revolutionary rhetoric and theocratic dictates.
Hamid Reza Jalaiepour a reformist political activist said as long as the Islamic Republic shows no flexibility, the situation will get worse, and the society will see more protests.
In an interview with Aftabnews earlier this week, he criticized the fundamental approach of the regime saying that “the country has been the scene of nationwide protests for [over] a month, but people’s requests have fallen on deaf ears. The power institutions must show flexibility toward the people's demands, which is not the case now.”