Iran's 'Headless Society' Has No Way Out Of Political Impasse, Media Say
Media not aligned with the ruling hardliners in Iran warn that there are no opinion leaders left in the country that people can trust, creating a dangerous vacuum.
Media not aligned with the ruling hardliners in Iran warn that there are no opinion leaders left in the country that people can trust, creating a dangerous vacuum.
Many do not trust hardliners because they have manipulated elections and created a monopoly of power, and reformists have been discredited because of their inability to make a difference in major decisions in the past two decades.
The warning comes as the most important reformist political figure, former President Mohammad Khatami intends to withdraw from all political activities, including offering his opinions or endorsing any politician or election. Khatami has been banned from political appearances and public speeches for many years. Even his photos are banned in the media.
Recently there were reports that Khatami and a few other polticians seemd to be regrouping to offer an alternative to the current political situation.
According to moderate conservative website Khabar Online, the reason for the shift is the decline in the popularity of political groups and parties, as well as "engineered" elections that have gradually eliminated any group that voters could turn to for political insight and guidance.
The website pointed to Khatami’s decision to withdraw from politics, saying that those who still had an inkling of hope in reforms have lost their main point of reference.
Khabar Online warned that "A headless society will be a menace for Iran's political future." This is a reference to the lack of intellectual and political leadership in the country while a totalitarian ruling system is monopolizing all institutions in Iran.
In the 2020 parliamentary elections and the 2021 presidential vote, the regime’s power centers controlled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ruled out the candidacy of everyone other than hardline conservatives. The decision led to a parliament of everyone for himself rather than a single body of hardliners who were expected to speak in one voice. And in the presidential election, it was clear long before voting that regime insider Ebrahim Raisi would be the winner.
Khabar Online says this has led the people to no longer trust any political party and refuse to acknowledge the leadership role of political groups and parties as their point of reference. As a result, there is no one play a leading role in the society during turbulent times.
Social networks, such as unofficial trade unions, have to an extent replaced influential and trusted political groups. But although they have proved to be popular at times, the sensational nature of their activities prevented them from garnering true political support, Khabar Online wrote. This explains why protests by vocational groups including teachers and steel workers failed to turn into a strong political movement.
The website added that this situation has led to destructive consequences. The public has lost trust in government and politics, political groups have become weak and political elites of the regime have lost credibility.
Meanwhile, reformist newspaper Sharq wrote in a report about the same topic that was also carried by proreform website Fararu. The report argued that both the reformists and conservatives in Iran have lost their status as points of reference for voters and political activists, mainly because they fail to respond to the people's real problems.
Sharq argued that since 1979, all the political debates in Iran dealt with the dichotomy between "the status quo" and "the ideal situation." This was the source of all conflicts between the left and right. But the non-competitive 2021 presidential vote and Raisi's victory put an end to any pretence of political activism and competition within the regime. “This has dramatically changed Iran's political scene,” Sharq wrote.
Some observers have expressed concern that the disappointing performance of Iran's 11th parliament (Majles) since the 1979 revolution might lead to another record voter low turnout in 2024. The parliament's performance already led to an extremely low turnout in the 2020 by-election.
Nearly under every social media post about the parliament, users point out that lawmakers have broken their promise of making the voting process in the parliament transparent. In early November, the parliament rejected a bill that called for open voting and a renewed push in February was supported by only 66 of the 290 lawmakers. However, the Majles might approve the bill towards the end of its term only to leave it as an annoying legacy for the next Majles.
While the current Majles started its work with criticism of the Rouhani administration's economic performance, it has not yet approved any bill meant to bring about improvement in Iran's ailing economy. Majles speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a rare admission in October, “We could not accomplish anything,” and added, “We were not able to work correctly.”
Meanwhile, in July 2021, Khabar Online, a leading news website in Tehran characterized the current Majles as a "minority parliament" that should avoid provocative legislation opposed by most Iranians. The website noted that the ultra-conservative parliament has already annoyed a major part of the population by considering a bill to limit citizens’ access to the Internet and opposing a long-awaited salary increase for the country's low-paid teachers who have been taking to the streets in recent months.
Khabar Online also said that 38 lawmakers at the Majles had won between 2 to 10 percent of the votes in their constituencies, when they got elected in February 2020. Two members won around 2 percent of the votes in their districts, while at least 3 lawmakers in this group chair various parliamentary committees despite their less than 10 percent voter base.
While at times the Majles joined other critics to lash out at the Raisi administration for nepotism and giving big jobs to small men with no merits, it turned out in November that some of the insiders who got the big jobs were the relatives of lawmakers.
The parliament has also been harshly criticized for not objecting to the appointment of IRGC generals as state officials or allowing them to run for President.
The Majles has also been criticized by the press for not being able to carry out its supervisory role. A group of lawmakers tabled motions during the past months to impeach several ministers including the ministers of labor, industry and health for breaking laws and shortcomings in their performance, but each time, the Majles Presidium refused to officially acknowledge the call for impeachment.
Based on what the Majles has done or failed to do during the past two years, some Iranian media outlets, including the moderate Rouydad24, have said that many of the current lawmakers might find it hard to convince Iranian voters to vote for them in 2024 when the turnout is likely to be even lower than in 2020.
The parliament’s record of coordination with the government has also been criticized. While most commentators in Iran believed that a hardliner Majles would work well with the ultraconservative government of Ebrahim Raisi, the first signs of a rift between the two emerged in late February as the parliament disagreed with key parts of the government's budget bill.