Oil, gas and Iran economic analyst
The United States moved to impose a naval blockade on Iran just as the country’s oil exports were surging to their highest levels in years, underscoring Washington’s effort to halt a wartime boom in Tehran’s energy revenues.
The move followed the collapse of negotiations in Pakistan and comes amid a war that has disrupted much of the Persian Gulf’s energy trade.
Since the launch of joint military operations by Israel and the United States, Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. Even after the April 8 ceasefire, maritime traffic through the strategic waterway has yet to recover.
Data from the International Energy Agency show exports from Persian Gulf states have fallen sharply during the conflict, with more than 170 million barrels of their oil stranded in tankers anchored across the region, according to Kepler data.
Iran exports rise as others fall
At the same time, shipping data point to a striking countertrend: rising Iranian oil exports.
Despite the conflict, Iran has increased its daily oil loadings and exports to around 2 million barrels over the past three months.
China has raised its purchases of Iranian crude by more than 300,000 barrels per day, bringing total imports close to 1.6 million barrels daily. India, which halted Iranian oil imports in 2019, has also resumed purchases, receiving at least 2 million barrels this month.
Tehran has also opened discussions with Singapore, Taiwan, Japan and other Asian importers to expand its market share.
Reuters has reported that Iranian crude has recently been sold to some Chinese buyers at prices even higher than the Brent benchmark—an unusual development for a country that typically sells at a discount due to sanctions.
Windfall revenues
The World Bank estimates the economies of Kuwait, Qatar and Iraq, whose oil and LNG exports have been severely disrupted, could contract by between 5 and 9 percent this year.
Iran, by contrast, appears to be benefiting from both increased exports and a roughly 40 percent rise in global oil prices during the war.
Tehran has also begun collecting ad hoc transit fees from vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Ships are required to register with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and transit near Iranian islands.
Reports suggest Iran is charging up to $2 million per vessel. Under normal conditions, roughly 150 ships pass through the strait each day.
Blockade seeks to cut revenue
US President Donald Trump announced the naval blockade in an effort to halt Iranian oil exports while warning that vessels paying transit fees to Iran could face seizure.
Yet Iran appears to have prepared for disruption. Kpler estimates Tehran had already stockpiled roughly 200 million barrels of crude in Asian waters before the conflict began in late February, with an additional 23 million barrels stored in the Sea of Oman.
Those reserves could allow Iran to continue supplying customers for months even without new shipments.
Although Washington has threatened sanctions against buyers of Iranian oil, it remains unclear whether China—effectively Tehran’s main customer since 2019—will comply.
The conflict is also raising wider maritime risks across the region.
Iran has attacked around 20 vessels in its southern waters over the past 50 days, while incidents are spreading beyond the Gulf.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported on April 12 that armed individuals in a small boat attempted to approach a vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another vital energy chokepoint handling roughly 9.3 million barrels of oil and petroleum products each day.
Whether the US blockade will succeed in curbing Iran’s export surge—or further deepen disruption across global energy markets—remains uncertain.
