Central bank says Iran has currency reserves, ready to inject $2 billion

Police opened fire Monday on protesters in Gachsaran who had gathered over hiring practices at the Lishtar refinery project, according to rights groups and footage from the scene.

Human rights group HRANA published a video that appeared to show police firing shots at the gathering. Gunfire can be heard in the footage.

The group said at least one person was injured, while the Iran Human Rights Center and other local and rights groups reported multiple injuries.

Protesters had gathered to denounce what they described as unfair and discriminatory recruitment practices at the refinery project, including the influence of political connections, and demanded greater transparency and priority for qualified local workers.

The dispute has been building for weeks. Young jobseekers from the Garmsiri Boyer-Ahmad region previously demonstrated outside the refinery project and the Gachsaran governor’s office, demanding what they called “justice in hiring” and an end to discrimination against local applicants.

Domestic media reports indicate construction and excavation work at the Gachsaran refinery project in Lishtar was underway in August, while local officials had previously faced demands for greater transparency over recruitment.

The confrontation came alongside another jobs protest in Ahvaz, where security forces used beatings and gunfire to disperse young people protesting hiring practices at the Dabal Khazaei Sugarcane Agro-Industry Company, according to the Karun Human Rights Organization.

The group said it received videos and accounts showing armed forces confronting protesters and opening fire.

It also cited witnesses as saying an officer deliberately injured his own fingers in an attempt to provide grounds for arresting protesters. Iran International could not independently verify that claim.

The protesters say the company operates on around 12,000 hectares of land, much of it belonging to the local area and its residents, but that qualified local applicants have been passed over while workers from outside the region receive priority.

They have called for authorities to disclose how vacancies are advertised, the criteria used to recruit workers and the share of jobs allocated to local applicants.

The two confrontations come as economic grievances over jobs and alleged discrimination increasingly spill into public protest in Iran.

In both cases, young people were demanding jobs and greater transparency over who gets them. In both, their protests were met with violence by security forces.

After Iran launched missiles at US bases in Jordan in response to an American strike on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump promised another response.

“We’re going to hit them hard,” Trump told Fox News. “There will be a response.”

At the same time, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a different measure of who has the advantage.

“I would think that they are lashing out kinetically because they are losing economically,” Bessent said, arguing that Tehran is feeling the effects of Washington’s expanding pressure campaign.

Iran’s economy does not have to collapse, he said. “We just have to have the regime come to their senses.”

That leaves a central question hanging over the latest exchange: can Iran’s military retaliation actually improve its position as economic pressure mounts?

“Keep firing on Jordan, keep firing on Kuwait and Bahrain and UAE, but does that solve your problem at home?” Kamran Bokhari, Strategic Forecaster and Senior Resident Fellow with the Middle East Policy Council in Washington, told Iran International.

Bokhari believes Washington has little incentive to escalate into a larger war when it can respond to specific Iranian actions while maintaining the blockade and economic pressure.

“Keep the blockade,” he said. “If they try to mine, do what they did yesterday, but don’t escalate anything, and just keep the pressure up on the economic front.”

In that scenario, Iran retains the ability to retaliate, but its attacks do little to relieve the broader pressures facing the Islamic Republic.

Can economic pressure lead to something bigger?

Ali Dadpay, an Iranian American economist from Texas, said Washington’s stated objective is to change the Islamic Republic’s behavior rather than openly pursue regime change.

“Right now, they officially and legitimately say change of behavior,” Dadpay said.

But he argued that the economic deterioration Iran is experiencing could ultimately produce a more consequential outcome than Washington’s stated goal.

Dadpay pointed to the Soviet Union, East Germany and communist Poland as examples of political systems that collapsed without being invaded by a foreign power.

“A similar set of socio-economic factors can create a similar outcome,” he said of Iran.

Dadpay also said the combination of military and economic pressure could alter calculations among groups within the Islamic Republic and push the system toward what he described as a “new equilibrium.”

The immediate question is how far Washington is prepared to go with that economic pressure.

Max Meizlish, a former senior policy adviser at the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, said a key test will be whether the US targets financial institutions facilitating Iranian trade with China.

Iran may still have oil to sell. The bigger question is whether Tehran can get paid. Unless financial channels through Hong Kong, the UAE and elsewhere are constrained, Meizlish said, “the regime is still going to have pathways for rearming itself.”

The pressure reaches ordinary Iranians

The expanding campaign is also having consequences beyond the regime. On August 24, OFAC suspended General License G, which had permitted certain educational services and academic exchanges involving Iranians.

ETS told Iran International it has since paused TOEFL and GRE testing inside Iran. Iranian nationals can still take the tests outside the country.

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  Iran sanctions reach education: Duolingo blocked, TOEFL and GRE in doubt

Dadpay called the impact on testing a “side effect” of the broader restrictions. Meizlish said the administration may be trying to prevent regime-linked individuals from using educational opportunities abroad.

But he acknowledged the wider cost.

“There could be an unintended effect here where ordinary Iranians are caught in the crossfire, so to speak,” Meizlish said.

Iran’s missiles have shown Tehran can still strike back. What remains unclear is whether those attacks can ease the pressure building on the Islamic Republic — or whether Washington’s economic squeeze can change the regime’s behavior without increasingly hurting the Iranians it is meant to pressure Tehran on behalf of.

Iran exported about $15 billion worth of non-oil goods, including natural gas and LPG, through August 16, nearly five months into the Iranian calendar year that began on March 21. That was nearly 30% below the figure reported for the first five months of the previous year.

Imports fell to about $17 billion over the same near-five-month period, about a quarter below the full five-month figure reported a year earlier.

The figures show a sharp deterioration in Iran’s trade during a conflict that has disrupted key industries and shipping routes, adding to an economy already struggling under years of sanctions, declining oil revenues and chronic shortages of foreign currency.

The United States has intensified economic pressure on Tehran since the conflict began on February 28, while imposing a maritime blockade on Iran amid disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian customs authorities have not published a detailed breakdown of the decline in non-oil exports. But the latest figures indicate that non-oil exports have fallen for a second consecutive year, with the current near-five-month total roughly a third below the level recorded in the first five months of 2024.

Imports have performed even worse over the longer period, with the latest total nearly 40% below the first-five-month figure recorded in 2024.

Petrochemicals and steel hit by strikes

The deterioration comes after attacks disrupted two of Iran’s most important non-oil export industries: petrochemicals and steel.

Iran exported about $45 billion in non-oil goods during the previous Iranian fiscal year, with petrochemicals and steel accounting for roughly $17 billion, or 37% of the total.

Israeli strikes in March hit Iran’s major petrochemical hubs in Mahshahr and Asaluyeh, as well as major steel producers including Mobarakeh Steel and Khuzestan Steel.

The Iranian government subsequently halted the export of a wide range of petrochemical and steel products for two to three months. Some export permits were later restored, but the government has not disclosed how much these industries exported during the first five months of the current year.

That makes it difficult to determine precisely how much of the overall decline in non-oil exports was caused by disruptions to these sectors.

But given their importance to Iran’s export earnings, any prolonged disruption to production, transportation or overseas sales would have a significant effect on the country’s trade balance.

Oil exports fall even faster

The decline in Iran’s oil exports appears to have been even steeper.

Iranian customs authorities do not publish oil-export figures. Kpler data seen by Iran International, however, show that Iran’s average daily crude-oil and condensate sales to China during the first five months of the current Iranian year were slightly above 1 million barrels per day, about 40% below the same period last year.

Iran’s total fuel-oil exports to international markets also fell sharply, averaging about 96,000 barrels per day, down 57% year on year.

The decline has accelerated in recent months.

Iran’s oil shipments to China, its main customer, have fallen to roughly 520,000 barrels per day this month, while the average over the previous two months was about 800,000 barrels per day, according to Kpler estimates.

That compares with roughly 1.7 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate sold to China at the beginning of the conflict.

Iran’s fuel-oil exports have also dropped from an average of about 220,000 barrels per day at the start of the war to 61,000 barrels during August.

The collapse in fuel-oil exports has also coincided with a sharp deterioration in Iran’s trade with the United Arab Emirates.

The UAE was Iran’s largest fuel-oil customer last year, accounting for more than 70% of Iran’s fuel-oil exports. But following widespread Iranian attacks on the UAE, the trade has been almost suspended.

Malaysia, Singapore and China have also largely stopped buying Iranian fuel oil since the beginning of the conflict.

Mounting pressure on Iran’s economy

The combined decline in oil and non-oil exports is likely to put further pressure on Iran’s already strained foreign-exchange position.

At the same time, the fall in imports suggests that Iranian companies and consumers are facing increasing difficulty accessing foreign goods, raw materials, machinery and intermediate products.

The trade figures therefore point to a broader deterioration than a simple decline in exports. Iran is simultaneously losing export revenue and reducing its ability to import the goods needed to sustain domestic production.

If the decline in oil shipments persists, pressure on Tehran’s foreign-currency reserves and its ability to finance imports could intensify further in the coming months.

For an economy heavily dependent on oil revenue and imports of industrial inputs, the latest figures suggest that the economic costs of the conflict are extending well beyond the energy sector.

“Give us a $3,000 salary and sell gasoline for 750,000 rials ($0.36) a liter. No problem,” one person wrote in response to Mohammad Jafar Ghaempanah, President Masoud Pezeshkian’s executive vice president.

Ghaempanah questioned the sustainability of selling gasoline for 15,000 rials per liter, less than one US cent at the current exchange rate, when he put its value at 700,000 rials ($0.33).

“You cannot buy gasoline that costs 700,000 rials per liter for 15,000 rials. No sound mind accepts this,” Ghaempanah said.

His comments drew responses comparing gasoline prices with wages, food, cars and the exchange rate, with several people questioning why international pricing should apply to household costs but not incomes.

An average monthly income of around 200 million to 250 million rials amounts to just $95 to $119 at an exchange rate of 2.1 million rials to the dollar, sharpening the contrast between earnings and prices increasingly measured against international market rates. At that income level, gasoline priced at Ghaempanah’s 700,000-rial ($0.33) valuation would make a 50-liter tank cost 35 million rials ($16.67), equivalent to about 14% to 18% of a month’s income.

‘Income in rials, expenses in dollars’

A worker writing from Tabriz turned Ghaempanah’s argument back on the government, questioning why wages remained so low if selling gasoline below its assessed value was unsustainable.

100%

“We workers also ask why a worker whose wage should actually be $4,000 is paid $100,” the person wrote.

Another response focused on the exchange rate, questioning why Iranians must pay more than 2.1 million rials for one US dollar while the government objects to selling domestically produced gasoline for 15,000 rials per liter.

“You can’t have income in rials and expenses in dollars,” another person wrote.

Others compared wages with what they described as the poverty line.

“You can’t have a salary of 200 million rials ($95) when the poverty line is 1.5 billion rials ($714),” one person wrote.

Cars and food enter the comparison

Cars were another recurring point of comparison, with people questioning the gap between domestic vehicle prices and those in international markets.

“But we can buy a car worth five billion rials ($2,381) for 50 billion rials ($23,810)?” one person wrote.

Another called for cars to be offered at international market prices if officials want to apply similar logic to energy, saying consumers should not have to depend on Iranian and Chinese manufacturers.

Food prices also featured prominently in the reactions.

“It’s possible to make 400,000-rial rice cost six million rials, three-million-rial meat cost 30 million rials, and a two-billion-rial salary become 200 million rials. But gasoline has to become more expensive,” one person wrote.

Ghaempanah said food prices had risen 123%. The latest figures cited from the Statistical Center of Iran also put point-to-point food inflation above 128%, almost twice the roughly 67% rate for non-food goods.

Other messages described households cutting back on basic purchases as prices rise.

One person said their 75-year-old father, a pensioner receiving 160 million rials ($76) a month and paying rent, could no longer afford meat or chicken and had long since stopped buying fruit.

Another said they wanted to buy apples for their son but could not afford the price of 1.5 million rials ($0.71) per kilogram.

Government says budget deficit drives money printing

Ghaempanah also said the government’s budget imbalance forces it to create money to cover shortfalls, contributing to inflation.

“Because our budget is unbalanced, we are forced to print money. When money is printed, it itself creates inflation,” Ghaempanah said.

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The executive vice president attributed 67% of inflation to the banking sector, arguing that lenders issue loans that are not repaid and accept collateral without sufficient underlying value.

Banks then seek money from the Central Bank to cover their deficits, prompting further money creation, according to Ghaempanah.

He also described Iran’s economic conditions as poor and said ordinary people were bearing the greatest pressure.

“The bitter reality is that the country’s economic conditions are not good and the greatest pressure is being placed on the people,” Ghaempanah said.

Around 20,400 people participated in the online poll, with 44% saying they would not invest in property in Iran even if they could afford to do so. Only around half said they would buy a home.

Of those who participated, 67% were men and 33% women.

People aged 25 to 34 made up the largest group of respondents at 36.6%, followed by those aged 35 to 44 at 30.1%. People aged 45 to 54 accounted for 12.8%, while those aged 18 to 24 made up 11.4%.

Participants also left around 2,000 comments explaining their choices, offering a broader picture of the considerations shaping their decisions.

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The responses centered on attachment to Iran, hopes for political change, plans to emigrate, economic hardship and concerns over the security of their savings.

‘If I had enough money, I wouldn't be in Iran’

For many of those opposed to buying a home, having enough money would provide an opportunity to leave Iran rather than invest more heavily in the country.

“If I had enough money, I wouldn't be in Iran at all,” one respondent wrote.

“Having enough money in this situation means having the best life abroad,” another wrote.

The responses mirror the findings of an earlier Iran International Instagram poll in which 83% of participants said they would leave Iran if given the opportunity.

Around 100,000 people participated in that poll over 24 hours. Thousands of comments cited economic problems, social restrictions, political conditions and uncertainty over the future among the reasons for wanting to emigrate.

Some participants in the latest poll associated remaining in Iran with insecurity, sanctions, inflation, power outages and difficulties meeting basic needs, saying they would rather put their money into a more stable country.

One described owning a home as inseparable from the wider conditions in which a person lives.

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“A home needs a blue sky above it, a thriving tree with bright green leaves in its yard, air without lead coming through its windows, a meal in its kitchen that doesn't come with guilt or selling your dignity, and peace of mind because you feel safe,” the respondent wrote.

“Home is where I can look at the stars at night without waking up the next morning choked with sadness and humiliation.”

Gold and currency offer a way out

Others focused on the financial risks of property ownership.

Unlike in previous years, when buying a home was widely viewed as a relatively secure investment for the future, some said they would now prefer to keep their wealth in gold or foreign currency because those assets are more liquid and easier to take out of the country.

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  Tehran rents hit three times many workers’ monthly pay

“Investing in a bankrupt economy is certainly a mistake because prices are unrealistic, artificial and like a hollow bubble,” one respondent wrote.

Housing has for years served as a means of preserving wealth in Iran's chronically inflationary economy, and property can provide protection against inflation over the longer term.

But international reporting has also documented a move toward assets that can be carried and quickly converted into cash during periods of uncertainty.

The Associated Press described the trend as a turn toward “portable wealth” during the 12-day war, while the World Gold Council recorded a sharp increase in investment demand for gold in Iran in 2025.

The poll comes as Iranians continue to contend with high inflation. Iran's Statistical Center put year-on-year inflation in July at nearly 88%.

‘I wouldn't trade Iran for anywhere’

For respondents who said they would buy a home, attachment to Iran and a sense of national identity emerged as leading reasons.

Some described owning a home as more than a financial investment, linking it to family, personal history and their connection to the country.

“Yes, I wouldn't trade Iran for anywhere in the world,” one wrote.

“Iran is our mother; you don't abandon your mother when times are difficult,” another wrote.

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Others said the country's problems would not persuade them to build a life elsewhere.

“Iran is my first and last choice. I believe good days are ahead of us,” one participant wrote.

Some would buy only after political change

A number of respondents made their willingness to buy a home conditional on political change, greater freedoms or improvements in the country's circumstances.

“When Iran is free, 100%,” one wrote. “After Iran is free, yes, but not under these conditions,” another wrote.

Others questioned the premise of the poll itself, saying the prospect of having enough money to purchase a home was increasingly detached from the economic reality facing many people.

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  Nine out of ten shun marriage, parenthood in Iran International poll

They pointed to difficulties paying for food, rent, medical treatment and other daily necessities, describing home ownership as an unattainable aspiration.

“We are renters, and we'll take the dream of buying a home to the grave,” one respondent wrote.

The findings follow another Iran International Instagram poll in which 90% of respondents said they did not want to marry or have children.