Oil tanker rates could surge further on Iran risk - Bloomberg

Multiple US outlets reported on Thursday that national security officials have informed President Donald Trump that the military has positioned the necessary air and naval assets in the region to carry out a strike “within days,” potentially even by the end of this week.

In Tehran, some analysts cautioned that the military moves could signal genuine escalation rather than routine pressure.

Political analyst Mohammad Soltaninejad told Entekhab: “If the negotiations fail or the US position changes—as happened before the 12-day war and in the middle of negotiations—it is possible that war could break out.”

Jalal Sadatian, a former Iranian ambassador to the United Kingdom, said in an interview with ILNA that war remains an unattractive option for regional states, particularly given the risk of US bases in those countries being targeted.

“The balance is still tilted somewhat more toward negotiation than toward war,” he said, arguing that Trump appears to be “more focused on threats and exercising pressure.”

‘Real’ prospect of war

The military buildup follows the second round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States, which ended Tuesday in Geneva without tangible results. Cautious optimism expressed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has not translated into broad confidence in Tehran.

Financial markets have reacted nervously. Iran’s currency weakened nearly one percent in a single day, with the dollar rising toward 1,630,000 rials, reflecting broader concerns about the risk of escalation.

Prominent economic outlet Eco Iran ran an editorial on Thursday titled Diplomacy Under the Shadow of Military Movements, arguing that US deployments are not merely a show of power but “a sign of maintaining operational readiness in case tensions escalate.”

International relations professor Gholamreza Haddad told Eco Iran that talks proceeding to a third round is not necessarily a positive sign. He said the scale of US deployments suggests “real preparedness for military conflict,” rather than merely a threat intended to extract concessions from Tehran.

Agreement ‘a miracle’

Nour News, a site close to senior security official Ali Shamkhani, went further, suggesting that Washington might opt for a limited, symbolic action to demonstrate readiness without entering full-scale war.

“This scenario would symbolically test Iran’s deterrence and demonstrate America’s power,” the editorial said, warning that “the scene stands on the brink of crisis.”

Iran has also demonstrated heightened military activity. Over the past two days, it has conducted exercises in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, and a notice to airmen (NOTAM) was issued for a missile test in southern Iran scheduled for Thursday.

US affairs analyst Amir Abolfath delivered one of the more pointed warnings, calling a potential agreement “a miracle” and cautioning that sustaining any deal may prove even more difficult than reaching one.

“We may end up in war,” he told moderate outlet Khabar Online. “And even in the event of war, the problem may not be resolved.”

An Iranian lawmaker said Tehran has prepared “special and secret” weapons to respond to any possible US attack after Washington deployed warships to the region.

Abbas Papizadeh, a member of parliament’s presiding board, said the United States should take seriously a recent warning by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and not place too much confidence in its naval forces.

“Iran has prepared special techniques and confidential weapons for any potential attack,” he said, according to state media, adding that if war breaks out, the conflict would take on a regional nature.

He said any confrontation would affect global oil markets and the wider economy, and described the US naval deployment as a media move aimed at influencing Iran’s economy.

Norway is relocating some of the around 60 soldiers it has in the Middle East to Norway and other countries in the region on security grounds, a spokesperson for the Norwegian armed forces said on Friday.

Lieutenant Colonel Vegard Finberg from the Norwegian Joint Headquarters said the troops were involved in tasks such as training local forces and other missions.

Norway declined to say how many soldiers were being moved or from which locations.

The move comes after US President Donald Trump warned Iran it must reach a nuclear deal within 10 to 15 days or face “really bad things,” drawing a threat from Tehran to retaliate against US bases in the region if attacked.

An Iranian lawmaker said Iran could target the United States itself in the event of war and warned that even “Trump’s own palace” could be hit.

Amir Hayat Moghaddam, a member of parliament’s national security and foreign policy commission, told Didban Iran that while Tehran’s strategy was not to start a war, it was fully prepared to respond if attacked.

“If the Americans attack, we will immediately give a crushing response,” he said, adding that Iran could sink a US warship in the Sea of Oman, strike US bases in the region and harm American forces “whether soldier, officer or general.”

“In case of war, our attacks may not remain limited to the Middle East. We can target America itself … You might one day see Trump’s own palace hit,” he said.

Iran’s air force said one of its aircraft crashed during a night training mission in Hamedan province on Thursday evening, killing one pilot.

The public relations office of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force said Mehdi Firoozmand was killed in the incident and that the second pilot survived. It said the cause of the accident is under investigation.

Some media outlets reported the aircraft was an F-4 fighter jet that went down during a night training flight.