As Iran currency hits new low, finance minister blames war's impact
US dollar banknotes in an Iranian foreign currency exchange office
Iran’s currency sank to a new all-time low on Monday with the US dollar climbing to 1.26 million rials but the country's finance minister described the slide as a normal result of a brief war with Israel in June.
Market data also showed that the benchmark Emami gold coin was trading at its own record of 1.32 billion rials, up more than 2.5 percent from the start of the week. The dollar had gained roughly the same amount over that period.
The British pound crossed 1.6 million rials and the euro rose beyond 1.45 million rials, capping a volatile two-day rally.
The latest surge prompted unusually sharp criticism from media outlets affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. The Fars and Tasnim news agencies, which typically avoid acknowledging free-market exchange rates, openly attacked the relatively moderate administration of President Masoud Pezeshkian for the sharp rise.
But Finance Minister Ali Madanizadeh sought to justify the inflationary shock during a Student Day speech at Sharif University.
“Do you expect the dollar to fall when the country has just come under an unprecedented military attack and suffered several hundred trillion tomans in damage?” he asked, referring to the 12-day conflict with Israel.
He compared the government’s situation to that of “a doctor operating in a field hospital under bombardment."
Inflation and foreign-exchange volatility have intensified since the return of UN sanctions in September and Tehran’s insistence on maintaining its nuclear enrichment program in defiance of the international community's demands.
Over the past year, food prices have risen more than 66 percent on average, squeezing households and straining purchasing power.
Root causes of malaise
Iranian state media have blamed a recent cabinet decision allowing imports of essential goods using foreign currency reserves not provided by the Central Bank. Outlets have argued that the move has pushed importers into the open market and fueled demand for hard currency.
Fars News said the measure “disrupted the market,” while Tasnim described it as a “strategic mistake” that sent the wrong signal to traders and amplified inflation expectations.
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Economists point instead to long-standing structural drivers—especially rapid money-supply growth—combined with heightened political uncertainty.
Arash Hasannia, an economic journalist, told Iran International that the pressures have driven precautionary investment toward gold and foreign currency.
He noted that, unlike in previous years, the government and the Central Bank have refrained from intervening to stabilize the rial.
“It appears the Central Bank lacks the capacity to enter the market,” he said, adding that the bank seems reluctant or unable to inject scarce reserves to slow the currency’s decline.
Suspicions by critics that the government deliberately allows the exchange rate to rise to cover budget shortfalls have resurfaced again this fall, but Hasannia stressed that no evidence substantiates the claims.
Iran’s judiciary says it has filed a case against a veteran ecologist and former adviser to the Department of Environment, after he said the government could fix Iran’s high-pollution mazut fuel with the cost of developing ten missiles.
Iranian media on Monday described the charges against Esmail Kahrom as relating to making “false statements” and actions “against national security.”
Prosecutors also opened a case against the editor-in-chief of the Jamaran news site, which published Kahrom’s interview.
In the November 30 conversation, Kahrom said that each missile costs roughly two million dollars and argued that if public health mattered to officials, they could redirect the equivalent of 10 missiles to upgrade fuel standards. He said authorities refused because “their priorities lie elsewhere.”
Iran, one of the largest oil and gas producers in the world, is facing a severe natural gas shortage. That shortage has prompted refineries to bulk out the fuel's volume with other substances, like mazut which environmentalists believe has played a major role in Iran's worsening air pollution.
Kahrom warned that the mazut used in Iran contains sulfur levels “seven times the global standard,” and that domestic fuel quality is also inadequate. His comments triggered sharp pushback from state-affiliated outlets.
Veteran ecologist and former adviser to the Department of Environment, Esmail Kahrom
Mazut, the non-standard gasoline contains harmful additives and has significantly contributed to the air pollution crisis in the country.
The use of the low-grade fuel mazut by power plants in Iran has been linked to severe harm to public health and even fatalities, with Iranians frequently expressing frustration over the worsening air quality and pollution in many cities.
State media dismiss environmental concerns
Young Journalists Club, tied to state broadcaster IRIB, wrote that “certain groups believe defense budgets should be spent on the environment,” calling national security a nonnegotiable necessity and portraying environmental debates as a distraction.
Farhikhtegan, a newspaper affiliated with the state-run Islamic Azad University, similarly argued – referencing the 12-day war with Israel – that critics forget “without deterrence, the cost of war would far outweigh any air pollution.”
Environmental warnings have frequently been downplayed or mocked by officials and pro-government media. Past concerns over water scarcity, energy crises, deforestation and land subsidence have met similar resistance.
A prominent example was the campaign against hydrologist Kaveh Madani, who faced accusations of espionage after warning of impending water collapse and ultimately left the country.
Iran has faced worsening air pollution in recent years alongside severe water and energy shortages, with experts tracing the crisis to aging infrastructure, poor fuel quality and policy inaction.
Iran and Russia have signed a new cooperation agreement on artificial intelligence and cybersecurity, Iranian state media reported, expanding their technology partnership as both countries deepen strategic ties under Western sanctions.
The agreement was reached at the fifth meeting of the Iran–Russia Joint Working Group on Communications and Information Technology, held in Moscow, according to the Iranian broadcaster IRIB.
The document was signed by Meysam Abedi, Iran’s deputy minister of communications for technology and innovation, and Alexander Shoitov, Russia’s deputy minister of digital development, communications and mass media.
The accord covers cooperation in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, digital economy, smart government, blockchain and fintech, as well as technology parks and private-sector partnerships.
Abedi said the signing confirmed “the determination of both governments to expand cooperation in communications and information technology.” He said joint work would continue on data transit, e-government, and developing AI tools, adding that both countries aim to use each other’s experience to deliver “better products and services” to their citizens.
The new agreement follows the ratification of a 20-year strategic partnership between Iran and Russia earlier this year. That treaty, originally signed by Presidents Masoud Pezeshkian and Vladimir Putin in January, commits the two nations to closer coordination in defense, trade, and technology.
Iran’s parliament approved the pact in May with broad support. Lawmaker Hamid Rasai said it was “vital from economic, security, geopolitical, and diplomatic perspectives,” noting that both Tehran and Moscow face heavy Western sanctions.
Iran’s soil is nearing bankruptcy, a senior agriculture official warned on Saturday, saying the country’s food production outlook will sharply deteriorate without urgent intervention.
Widespread awareness has not translated into action, Hadi Asadi-Rahmani, head of the Soil and Water Research Institute of Iran said at the World Soil Day conference in Ghazvin.
“We all know Iran’s soil is growing poorer, and without urgent action, the future of food production will face serious risk,” Asadi-Rahmani added.
Iran has 165 million hectares of land, of which only 24 million are arable. Half of national crop output, Asadi-Rahmani said, now comes from class-three and class-four lands.
He warned that continuous extraction, insufficient fertilizer inputs and erosion are pushing the country toward a structural crisis. “Seventy-five percent of Iran’s soils have less than one percent organic carbon,” he noted. “This shows how exhausted our soils have become.”
Roughly 30,000 hectares of land, according to him, degrade each year, reflecting patterns similar to the country’s water crisis.
Water authorities warn of parallel emergency
Iran is in its sixth consecutive year of drought, Arash Kordi, deputy minister of energy, also said on Saturday.
“Even with normal rainfall, current extraction patterns have no compatibility with Iran’s climate,” Kordi added.
“Delaying reforms directly threatens people’s livelihoods and the foundations of the country.”
Specialists warn of shrinking reserves
Dry conditions have pushed reservoirs in several provinces to record lows. Officials in the religious city of Mashhad have moved to full rationing, and parts of Kerman in the south report farmland abandonment linked to groundwater loss. Nationwide rainfall has dropped to about 18 percent of typical levels.
The twin crises of soil depletion and water scarcity, officials said, now reinforce one another. Asadi-Rahmani warned that postponing decisions would make damages irreversible.
Experts blame decades of over-extraction, unchecked urban growth and placing water-hungry industries in the desert – alongside drier weather – for pushing groundwater sources and lakes to the brink.
An Iranian lawmaker says a sharp fall in the country’s oil revenue has disrupted imports of essential goods and created new pressure on the economy.
Jabbar Kouchakinejad, a member of parliament’s budget and planning committee, said Iran has been unable to secure enough foreign exchange for key imports.
“Because of reduced oil income, we cannot provide the required foreign currency for basic goods,” he told ILNA news agency. He said allocations for essential imports fell from 18 billion dollars last year to about 11 billion dollars this year.
Kouchakinejad said much of Iran’s oil sold to China has not been converted into usable currency, while sanctions have forced Tehran to offer heavy discounts.
“Although the oil minister says sales are good, the revenue is not returning to the country,” he said, adding that this has led to import restrictions and shortages in several sectors.
Structural problems worsen fiscal gaps
Economists say the country’s chronic budget deficit, high inflation and weak productivity stem from a large, costly bureaucracy and overlapping agencies. They warn that without reform, Iran’s economy will remain vulnerable to external shocks and sanctions.
Economist Mehdi Pazouki said the unchecked expansion of the administrative system has fueled inflation and wasted public resources. “Without discipline in spending, it will be very difficult to stabilize the economy,” he said.
Analysts warn of harder year ahead
Experts say Iran’s economic outlook may worsen next year when renewed UN sanctions triggered by European powers take full effect. Economist Morteza Afghah said growth targets of eight percent are unrealistic under current conditions, noting that “even without war and sanctions, such goals would be unattainable.”
Kouchakinejad said the monthly treasury reports confirm a decline in oil income, though the exact figures remain classified. “The fall in revenue has made it difficult to forecast foreign currency inflows and fund imports,” he said.
An Iranian water official said the volume of drinking water stored in Tehran’s five main dams has fallen to about 170 million cubic meters, roughly half the level recorded at this time last year.
Rama Habibi, a deputy at the Tehran Regional Water Company, told ISNA that the capital is experiencing its most persistent dry spell in six decades.
“For the first time in 60 years, we have had five consecutive years of drought,” he said.
Habibi added that rainfall since the start of the current water year in early October has been “very minimal.” He said Tehran recorded 48 millimeters of rain in the same period last year, compared with just 1.9 millimeters this year.
“We are facing a 96 percent reduction in rainfall compared with last year,” he said, adding that long-term averages also show a drop of nearly 98 percent.
Drought reshapes dam operations
The prolonged dry period has pushed reservoir levels across Iran to historic lows. The country’s Karkheh Dam hydroelectric plant was forced to halt power generation last week due to the shrinking water level in its reservoir.
Officials said the dam’s basin has endured years of drought, with water now flowing only through lower outlets to meet downstream needs.
Karkheh, one of the region’s largest dams, is among many facilities confronting shortages. Domestic media say reservoirs feeding Tehran’s Karaj and Latian dams have fallen sharply, and cities such as Mashhad, Kerman and Yazd are grappling with collapsing aquifers and, in some cases, water rationing.
Habibi said that in past years, rainfall returned to normal after short dry spells, but the current prolonged drought means “the outflow from the dams exceeds the inflow,” pushing storage to what he called alarmingly low levels. Long-term data indicate average storage of about 509 million cubic meters, leaving the current figure at roughly one-third of that amount, he said.
Warnings of broader strain
Authorities in several provinces warn that diminishing reserves could bring deeper disruptions if dry conditions persist. In Mashhad, officials have already moved to full rationing, while parts of Kerman report abandoned farmland due to groundwater depletion. Nationwide, rainfall has dropped to around 18 percent of normal levels, with 20 provinces reporting no measurable precipitation in recent weeks.
Water specialists quoted by local media say that if current patterns continue, significant parts of Tehran could face severe supply instability within the next decade.