Iran International
Two US senators sounded the alarm over the violation of NATO-member Poland's airspace on Tuesday by pilotless aircraft from Russia and Belarus, as Moscow steps up fusillades against Ukraine with Iranian-designed drones.
Speaking to Iran International, the lawmakers hit out at the escalation to the war in Ukraine after Poland said 19 Russian drones reportedly violated its airspace on Tuesday but were thwarted by Polish and NATO jets and air defenses.
Russia has stepped up blitzes on Ukraine in recent weeks involving hundreds of drones each and including Iranian-designed Shahed kamikaze drones. It was not immediately clear if they were among the drones intercepted over Poland.
“Iran has, over the last several years, been a critical and active partner in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine,” Democrat Senator Chris Coons said.
“By providing drone technology and even producing drones inside Russia for use against Ukraine, Tehran has enabled Putin’s war machine.”
Moscow denied any intent to violate Polish airspace, saying it did not seek to strike any targets in Poland and questioning whether the drones came from Russia at all.
The Chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee said facts are still emerging but said Russia had erred in piercing NATO air space.
“Russia is playing with fire here. Putin has made a lot of mistakes, and this could be the worst one he’s made yet," Republican Senator James Risch told Iran International. "We’ll see how this unfolds.”
'Open conflict' near
Poland, a former member of the Eastern Bloc under Moscow's tutelage for much of the twentieth century has become a staunch Western ally and base for NATO troops as the alliance's relationship with Iran, Russia and China has soured.
The drone incursion rattled its leadership, which warned of a dire escalation.
"This is the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II, but there is no reason to believe we're on the brink of war," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament.
Iran provides drone technology to Russia for its war against Ukraine, prompting a series of punitive sanctions from the United States and European Union.
Belarus, a close ally of Russia, confirmed the drones had entered Polish airspace, calling it an accident after the drones' navigation systems were jammed.
Western leaders have frequently warned against what they see as deepening security cooperation among their Eurasian adversaries Russia, Iran, China and North Korea.
After the incidents, Warsaw invoked Article 4 of NATO's charter which enables closer coordination with all NATO member states. A UN Security Council meeting to discuss the developments is scheduled for Friday.
Poland closed all border crossings with Belarus ahead of the joint Russia-Belarus Zapad 2025 military exercises, citing alleged security risks and Russian aggression.
The likely impact of the attack against a meeting of Hamas political leaders will be at least as consequential as the September 2019 Iranian missile and drone strike on Saudi oil facilities.
That attack on Abqaiq and al-Khurais, during the first Trump presidency, caused shockwaves in Riyadh and other Gulf capitals after President Trump publicly drew a distinction between US and Saudi interests in remarks he made two days later.
Leaders in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reached out to Iranian counterparts to engage in a process of regional de-escalation that culminated, in the Saudi case, in a March 2023 China-brokered agreement to restore diplomatic relations with Iran that had been cut in January 2016.
Now, during Trump’s second administration, the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states find themselves at a similar inflection point.
Qatar has come under attack from Israel a little more than two months after it took ballistic missile fire from Iran on June 23. Yet, whereas the Iranian attack was aimed at the Al Udeid US airbase away from urban areas, the Israeli attack struck at the heart of Doha in the middle of the afternoon.
CENTCOM in focus
While the Iranian strike was a response to US airstrikes the previous day against three nuclear facilities in Iran and was thus the act of an adversary - from the US if not necessarily the Gulf perspective - Israel is not only the closest US ally in the region but has also been, since 2021, included in the Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility.
Leaders in Qatar and the other Arab states around the Persian Gulf will likely be reaching out with urgency to the White House to assess who in the administration knew what and when in the run-up to the attack, as well as to determine the impact both for CENTCOM and the US security umbrella.
One CENTCOM member has undertaken a strike that violated the sovereignty of another and, moreover, within the near vicinity of the very airbase in Qatar that houses the forward headquarters of CENTCOM and is the largest and most important US base in the region.
Questions may be asked as to what information was picked up by the Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC) at Al Udeid and whether the strike used US-manufactured jets that showed up as friendly aircraft.
Reports that the US military spotted Israeli jets flying toward the Gulf and sought clarification from Israel may also generate additional questions as to why a facility designed to detect and deter aerial threats failed to prevent the strike.
While it remains improbable that GCC leaders will move away from the deep network of security and defense relationships with the US, the fallout from the attack is likely to trigger tense conversations within CENTCOM and between the US and Persian Gulf partners.
Invective shift from Iran to Israel
Although President Trump assured Emir Tamim of Qatar that such an attack would not recur, there is a risk that the president has backed himself into a corner should Israel indeed act again.
Set against this backdrop, leaders and senior defense and security officials across the GCC are likely to reassess the security landscape and regional threat perception and may declare that an attack on one GCC state is an attack on all, paving the way for a collective response.
Should this be the case, pressure may mount on the UAE and Bahrain to downgrade their ties with Israel that were established in 2020 when the countries signed the Abraham Accords in a White House ceremony presided over by President Trump.
Statements from officials and public figures in GCC states have in recent months described Israeli actions in the Middle East in language formerly used about Iran, as a spoiler and a major threat to regional stability.
While Iran is unlikely to be a beneficiary of the estrangement between GCC states and Israel, the fact that further normalization is, for the moment at least, very much off the table is an indication of how far the regional landscape has shifted in the 23 months since October 7.