Iran’s president said on Saturday the country is facing a full-scale confrontation with the United States, Israel, and Europe, describing the pressure campaign against Tehran as more complex and damaging than the Iran–Iraq war.
“In my view, we are in an all-out war with the United States, Israel, and Europe; they do not want our country to stand on its own feet,” Masoud Pezeshkian said in an interview with the Supreme Leader’s official website.
He said the current war is worse than the Iraq war in the 1980s. “If one understands it properly, this war is far more complex and more difficult than that war.”
“In the war with Iraq, the situation was clear; they fired missiles, and it was clear where we would strike back. But here, they are now besieging us in every respect, putting us under pressure and in tight corners, creating problems—economically, culturally, politically, and in terms of security.”
Pezeshkian made the comments on the eve of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's trip to the United States, where he plans to brief President Donald Trump on options for potential future strikes against Iran, amid concerns that Tehran is rebuilding ballistic missile production facilities and repairing air defenses damaged during the June conflict, according to NBC News.
Israel has told the United States that the recent Iranian missile drills may conceal preparations for a potential strike, Axios reported last Sunday, one day after Iran International reported unusual Iranian air activity spotted by Western intelligence agencies.
Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir raised the issue directly with Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, warning that recent missile movements could serve as a cover for a surprise operation against the Jewish state.
Pezeshkian said on Saturday that Iran is "stronger than during the 12‑day war" with Israel in terms of equipment and manpower. "If the enemy chooses confrontation, they will naturally face a more decisive response."
In June, Israel carried out airstrikes and covert operations against Iranian military and nuclear sites, killing more than 1,000 people including senior officials and nuclear scientists.
Iran retaliated by launching hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel, killing at least 33 people, among them an off-duty soldier.
The United States helped Israel intercept Iranian attacks and later joined the Israeli campaign, bombing three Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22.
At the start of 2024, Iran appeared to be riding high — expanding regional reach, edging closer to nuclear threshold status and projecting confidence at home and abroad. That trajectory began to reverse in late 2024 and accelerated into 2025.
The past year brought direct confrontation with Israel and later the United States, the weakening of Tehran’s regional proxy network and mounting domestic pressures. What it did not bring was collapse.
That survival, analysts warn, may now be shaping how the Islamic Republic approaches 2026 — not as a moment for restraint, but as proof that it can endure unprecedented pressure and press forward.
The defining moment of the year was the June war with Israel, a confrontation that punctured long-held assumptions about Iran’s deterrence while stopping short of triggering a regime change.
On Eye for Iran, Middle East analyst and former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed who directs the Inside the Middle East fellowship program for policy and security professionals; journalist and investigative reporter Jay Solomon, author of The Iran Wars; and historian Shahram Kholdi assessed what the Islamic Republic’s survival says about the year that is about to end and why its interpretation of that survival could make the coming year more volatile.
Fear is breaking — but survival is being reframed
Avi Melamed pointed to a psychological shift inside Iran as one of the most consequential developments of 2025.
“The most significant one is that I think that we are witnessing now a very significant shift in Iran in the sense that many Iranian people are no longer afraid of this regime,” he said.
That erosion of fear has coincided with widespread social defiance, particularly among younger Iranians and women, even as repression continues.
Shahram Kholdi said that Tehran is not reading this moment as a loss. Instead, he argued, the leadership is internalizing 2025 through a survivalist lens — one that encourages defiance rather than restraint.
“If something that can kill you doesn’t destroy you, it makes you stronger,” Kholdi said, describing what he sees as the clerical establishment’s core mentality after the June war with Israel.
That belief, he argued, helps explain why executions have continued and why the Islamic Republic is signaling resolve despite suffering unprecedented blows.
A strategic reversal — interpreted as a test passed
Externally, 2025 marked a sharp break from the trajectory that once favored Tehran. Jay Solomon described the year as a reversal after decades in which Iran expanded influence through proxies and deterrence.
“The word I’d use for the year is weakness,” he said.
Solomon pointed to Israeli strikes, the degradation of Hezbollah and Hamas, and Iran’s struggle to manage overlapping crises — from inflation and water shortages to public dissent.
Yet despite expectations of mass bloodshed following the June conflict, the Islamic Republic ultimately pulled back, reinforcing its own perception that it had weathered the storm.
Why 2026 may be more volatile
For the analysts the biggest concern for 2026 was the risk ahead.
Iran’s deterrence model has been punctured but not abandoned. Instead, Tehran appears determined to rebuild — restoring proxy leverage, advancing missile capabilities and reasserting influence amid uncertainty.
Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile appears largely intact following the June war, with roughly 2,000 heavy missiles still in its arsenal, according to Al-Monitor.
The outlet cited an Israeli security source saying that Israel's military intelligence had conveyed the assessment to the United States in an indication that Israel is urging Washington to again act to address the alleged threat.
Melamed warned that this environment heightens the risk of miscalculation. Kholdi argued that the belief that Iran “didn’t lose” the June war makes confrontation more likely, not less. Solomon added that shifting political currents in the United States are being closely watched in Tehran and Tel Aviv alike, narrowing the window for restraint.
The danger, the panel suggested, is that survival itself is being treated as victory.
As 2026 begins, the Islamic Republic may be weaker — but convinced it has passed a test. That conviction could shape the year ahead more than any battlefield outcome.
Iran would respect Iraq’s sovereignty but stood ready to act if the Iraqi government sought assistance, Mohammad Kazem Al-e Sadegh said in an interview reported by the ISNA news agency.
“Iran is ready to protect the political system in Iraq from collapse if officially requested,” he said, without elaborating on what such protection would entail.
Iran supports Iraqi groups through financing, training, and arms, primarily focusing on Shia militias that are often integrated into the official Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).
This support helps groups like the Badr Organization and Kata'ib Hezbollah exert military and political influence, though some factions like Harakat Hezbollah Al-Nujaba have focused more on military operations. The support allows Iran to pursue its regional objectives, gain influence, and destabilize Iraqi politics while coordinating attacks against US forces.
Armed groups and ‘independent decisions’
Al-e Sadegh addressed recent Iraqi initiatives aimed at consolidating weapons under state control, a sensitive issue given the power of Iran-aligned armed factions. The Iran-backed groups, he said, were hesitant about weapons monopolisation due to concerns over its consequences, but insisted they had reached a level of maturity that allowed them to make decisions independently.
“Our relationship with these groups is longstanding, but they have reached a stage where they can decide for themselves,” he said, rejecting descriptions of the factions as Iranian proxies.
On regional tensions, the ambassador said Iran was “fully prepared” to respond to any hostile action by Israel, adding that Israel had sought US mediation to secure a ceasefire.
Iraq has balanced relations with both the United States and Iran, but faces mounting risks to its financial system if it falls foul of global sanctions regimes.
Hezbollah and the Houthis are key members of a broader network of Iran-backed groups across the region.
Iran views Iraq as a strategic economic and political partner amid Western sanctions, while Baghdad remains wary of being drawn into US efforts to squeeze Tehran and its regional allies.
On Wednesday, former Afghan police general Ikramuddin Sari was shot dead by masked assailants near his home in Tehran, according to sources close to him.
He was attacked alongside an associate near their residence in southern Tehran and died while being transferred to hospital, the sources told Afghanistan International.
Sari, a former police commander in Baghlan and Takhar provinces, fled to Iran after the Taliban returned to power in 2021. Reports in recent months had suggested Iranian police had detained and questioned him, though no official explanation was given.
Taliban's 'extraterritorial assassinations'
The killing follows the September shooting of Maroof Ghulami, a political and military figure close to veteran anti-Taliban leader Ismail Khan. He was killed by gunfire in the religious city of Mashhad.
People close to both men have blamed the Taliban for their deaths, according to Afghanistan International.
The attacks, an Afghan military source said, signal the start of what he described as Taliban “extraterritorial assassinations,” adding that the group has repeatedly threatened to target opponents abroad.
Senior Taliban official Mohammad Nabi Omari has previously said the group could kill opponents outside Afghanistan “with as little as 500 Pakistani rupees,” while Saeed Khosti, a former spokesperson for the de facto Taliban Ministry of Interior, warned two years ago that hundreds of volunteers were ready to target critics overseas.
Iranian authorities have remained publicly silent on Sari’s killing. Tehran has also provided no detailed update on the investigation into Ghulami’s death.
Iranian police said in September they arrested three suspects in that case but later released two, offering no clarity on affiliations.
A source familiar with the investigation told Afghanistan International that the remaining suspect was a Taliban operative, a comment not confirmed by Iranian authorities.
Calls for accountability
Sari, originally from Kapisa province, was regarded as a professional officer who served as police commander in Nuristan, Baghlan and Takhar, and as an adviser to Afghanistan’s interior ministry.
In Iran, he acted as an informal representative for former Afghan soldiers, advocating for their rights, opposing deportations and openly criticizing the Taliban.
The National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRF), led by Ahmad Massoud, called on Iran to conduct a “transparent, serious and independent” investigation, describing Sari’s killing as a “targeted terrorist act.”
The Jamiat-e Islami Afghanistan, led by Salahuddin Rabbani, also condemned the killing and urged Iranian authorities to identify those responsible.
Iran, which has handed Afghanistan’s embassy in Tehran and the consulate in Mashhad to the Taliban, has faced growing criticism for failing to protect Afghan dissidents on its soil even as it seeks closer ties with the Taliban-led administration.
