Iran International
A cluster of former officials and pundits in Tehran has sought to downplay the likelihood of a US-backed Israeli strike on Iran, arguing that Washington has little appetite for such military action.
The claims have circulated amid growing public anxiety about escalation—concerns that have begun to ripple through Iran’s currency and gold markets.
“Trump is no longer interested in playing Netanyahu’s game,” Nameh News, a conservative outlet widely seen as close to Iran’s intelligence community, quoted Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the former head of parliament’s national security committee, as saying.
Falahatpisheh offered little evidence for the assertion, suggesting only that “all of Trump’s attention is currently focused on the Western hemisphere.”
Those assurances stand in contrast to remarks on Wednesday by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said Israel still needed to “settle accounts” with Iran, adding that while Israel did not seek confrontation, it remained alert to “every possible danger.”
Meeting in Mar-a-Lago
Netanyahu is set to meet Donald Trump next week, primarily to discuss the next phase of the Gaza conflict but also Iran’s nuclear standoff.
Nameh News introduced the interview by citing the upcoming meeting, asserting that it would have no impact on Tehran’s determination to pursue its nuclear and missile programs.
Falahatpisheh further argued that the Trump–Netanyahu meeting was intended mainly to shield Israel from broader US national security priorities, claiming Washington was no longer willing to spend resources on military operations outside the Western hemisphere.
As support, he cited US national security documents, noting that Iran was mentioned 17 times in 2024 but only three times in 2025.
‘US not interested’
The same day, the outlet quoted foreign policy analyst Ali Bigdeli, who echoed Falahatpisheh’s assessment almost verbatim.
“I do not assume that the United States is likely to enter an action against Iran to assist Israel,” Bigdeli said, while maintaining that the Trump–Netanyahu meeting would indeed focus on Iran. He warned of the possibility of a “surprise military attack” but concluded that a broader conflict between Israel and Iran remained unlikely.
A similar argument appeared in the reformist daily Arman Melli, which published an interview that day with political commentator Hassan Hanizadeh.
Hanizadeh said the United States was “not interested in taking part in a new war against Iran” and accused Netanyahu and Israeli media of amplifying regional instability for domestic political reasons.
Taken together, the remarks suggest a coordinated effort to reassure domestic audiences that war is unlikely, even as official rhetoric remains confrontational. Whether such messaging can ease public anxiety—and calm markets in Iran—remains an open question.
The defendant, identified as Yaghoub Karimpour, a resident of Miandoab in West Azarbaijan province, was arrested by Iran’s intelligence ministry during the 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel earlier this year, the sources said.
Karimpour, born in 1984, was convicted of “corruption on earth” through alleged cooperation with Israel and the transmission of data, they added. He is currently being held in Urmia Central Prison.
According to the sources, Karimpour has denied the charges throughout his detention and trial, saying he had no links to Israel and had not passed any information. They said he told investigators that confessions attributed to him were extracted under coercion.
Iran’s judiciary has not publicly commented on the case, and Reuters was not able to independently verify the allegations.
Iranian authorities have intensified arrests, prosecutions and executions on charges of espionage or collaboration with Israel in the months following the brief war. Officials say the measures are necessary to safeguard national security, while rights groups say the trials often lack transparency and rely on forced confessions.
In recent weeks, Iran has carried out several executions linked to espionage allegations.
Earlier in December, authorities executed Aghil Keshavarz, an architecture student, after convicting him of spying for Israel, state-linked media reported.
The Hengaw human rights organization said that at least 17 people have been executed in Iran this year on charges related to cooperation with Israel, 15 of them after the conflict.
Iranian officials have arrested hundreds of people since the war on suspicion of espionage or collaboration with Israel.
Many of the cases have been pursued under a law passed by parliament in October that broadened definitions of espionage and cooperation with “hostile states,” including Israel and the United States, and allows for capital punishment in a wide range of activities involving alleged information sharing.
“Our sources in Tehran now tell us that, in October, Khamenei decided to give the green light to the development of compact warheads for ballistic missiles,” the report said.
The report said Khamenei had previously blocked any move to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels or to develop deliverable nuclear warheads, despite pressure from within Iran’s security establishment, particularly the Revolutionary Guards.
It said the June conflict with Israel marked a turning point, exposing weaknesses in Iran’s air defenses and allied forces, while highlighting the limits of its missile arsenal in a prolonged conflict.
“The only true deterrent that could save the Iranian regime in the event of a conflict against Israel and its US allies would be nuclear weapons,” the report said.
Enrichment still capped, for now
“At the same time, however, Khamenei would still not have authorised uranium enrichment beyond 60%,” the report said, adding that rumors persist of an undisclosed enrichment effort at a covert site not declared to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
It said Iran appears to be prioritizing warhead design over enrichment to reduce the risk of exposure to military strikes.
The report said that even if Iran chose to move quickly on enrichment, developing a deliverable warhead would take far longer.
“While enrichment to 90% would require only a few weeks if there were still enough working centrifuges, compact warheads remain a far more complex challenge,” it said, citing Pakistan’s experience in the 1990s, when years of testing and design work were needed before a viable compact warhead was achieved.
Missiles at core of deterrence
Iran’s focus on compact warheads is tied to its medium- and long-range missile force, which the report said proved decisive in forcing a ceasefire with Israel in June, even as Israel destroyed a significant number of Iranian missiles and launchers.
Recent contradictory reports over possible missile activity in Iran, later denied by state television, underscore the sensitivity around the country’s missile program and its role in deterrence.
The report said Iran could seek external assistance to shorten the timeline for developing compact warheads, noting persistent rumors within the Revolutionary Guards of cooperation with North Korea.
“Even access to previously tested warhead schematics would represent a major shortcut,” it said, while adding that cooperation beyond missile technology remains impossible to verify.
Iran has long said its nuclear program is peaceful and defensive, while Western governments accuse Tehran of keeping open the option of developing nuclear weapons.
