Israel Vows To 'Exact A Price' On Iran, Timing And Extent Remain In Question
Israel has vowed to "exact a price" from Iran in retaliation for the large-scale aerial assault on the Jewish state this weekend.
Ahead of a War Cabinet meeting on Sunday, Israel's centrist minister, Benny Gantz, vowed to "build a regional coalition and exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us."
The cabinet meeting ended without any statement but according to Israeli media only the timing and extent of the retaliation is in question.
"Right now, they certainly are seriously considering direct strikes on Iran, because that is a clearest path back to deterrence," according to Ryan Bohl, senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk intelligence platform Rane Network. But Israel will need to strike a delicate balance, he noted, highlighting that "they don't want an overt conflict with Iran."
The less risky tactic is a "covert escalation," where the Israelis will be "looking for ways where they can get their shadow war back into the shadows with greater intensity," Bohl told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Monday.
"Strategically, I think you will get a movement from Israel within a week," said David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, who does not expect Israeli forces to attack Iranian oil facilities as it would "displease all of their supporters" like the United States.
Roche said Israel's immediate response may be moderate, but he did not rule out that an "extreme retaliation" may still be in the cards in about a year or more from now. "If you got the most extreme form of retaliation — which I don't think you will get now — but you will get inevitably within a year or 18 months, against Iran's nuclear capacity, then I think you're into a market meltdown," he told CNBC on Monday.
Iran claims that it is “evident” the vessel captured in the Strait of Hormuz by the Revolutionary Guard belongs to Israel.
"The ownership of the ship by Israel is evident," stated Nasser Kanaani, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Monday.
"Given the violation of maritime laws by the concerned ship, it has been directed into the territorial waters of Iran," added Kanaani during his weekly briefing.
On Saturday, Iran's Revolutionary Guard seized a cargo ship that they said was "affiliated with" Israel near the Strait of Hormuz.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said the event occurred 50 nautical miles northeast of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates.
Tasnim news agency, which is close to the IRGC, said that the vessel, MSC Aries, is owned by Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer.
IRNA labeled Ofer as “the Zionist capitalist.” In November, vessels part-owned by him were targeted by Yemen's Houthi forces, who are aligned with Iran.
In their statement, Zodiac Maritime confirmed the seizure, adding that the “MSC is responsible for all vessel activities including cargo operations and maintenance. Title to the vessel is held by Gortal Shipping Inc as financier and she has been leased to MSC on a long-term basis. Gortal Shipping Inc is affiliated with Zodiac Maritime.”
The US State Department has condemned the seizure and called for the immediate release of the ship and its crew. In a statement of response, Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Israel Katz called on the European Union and the entire world to “immediately declare the IRGC as a terrorist organization and sanction Iran now.”
Hours after the seizure Iran attacked Israel with 350 drones and missiles launched on Saturday evening, following an airstrike on April 1 that targeted the Iranian consulate in Damascus and killed several IRGC members, including two high-ranking commanders.
The Italian Embassy in Tehran has announced that its consulate will be closed to the public from April 14 until further notice. The embassy said that essential consular services for Italian citizens will continue to be provided.
The closure comes after the German Embassy in Tehran issued a warning to its citizens in Iran that the security situation in the region and Iran is likely to worsen.
Several countries, including France, Canada, Australia, the US have warned their citizens against travel to Israel, the Palestinian territories, Lebanon and Iran, amid heightened tensions.
The Iranian government has taken legal action against a number of newspapers and influential journalists who failed to reiterate its rhetoric regarding the attack on Israel in their publications.
Prominent 'reformist' commentator Abbas Abdi, investigative journalist Hossein Dehbashi, and whistle-blower Yashar Soltani, who recently exposed a prominent cleric's corruption, have been accused of “compromising national security" following their comments regarding Iran's attack on Israel's soil.
(From left) Yashar Solatni, Abbas Abdi, Hossein Dehbashi
The punitive measures extend beyond journalists to include citizens. On Sunday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened to take action against any online expression of support for Israel.
The Iranian government launched over 350 drones and missiles into Israel on Saturday night in retaliation for an airstrike on its consulate compound in Damascus on April 1, for which they blamed Israel. Several members of the IRGC, including two top commanders, were killed in the attack.
In spite of regime celebrations of the attack, Abdi remained outspoken, claiming, "Contrary to popular belief, I believe that Israel's attack was a reaction which does not require Iran's response and reaction." Over 700 journalists have been arrested since the 2022 uprising with more crackdowns expected in the wake of the bombardment, Iran among the world's least safe places for journalists. At home and abroad, the regime has sought to silence voices of dissent, including attacks on Iran International journalists abroad.
Follow developments on Iran International'sLive coverageof ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel.
In its attack on Israel, Iran launched more than 300 killer drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles on Israeli territory.
Contrary to the Islamic Republic’s armed forces chief, who claimed the attack “achieved all its objectives,” the IDF spokesperson reports that 99% of the threats were intercepted by the air defense system, resulting in negligible impact.
Read more to know how Israel’s defense shield system intercepted 99% of Iran’s missiles.
In its attack on Israel, Iran launched more than 300 killer drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles on Israeli territory, IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari confirmed this weekend.
The unprecedented attack on Israel -- the territory of a key US ally -- though anticipated, was unparalleled.
Contrary to the Islamic Republic’s armed forces chief, who claimed the attack “achieved all its objectives,” the IDF spokesperson reports that 99% of the threats were intercepted by the air defense system, resulting in negligible impact.
Iran used 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missile in its attack on Israel.
On April 12, at approximately 9:33 pm London time, Tehran confirmed the initiation of its attack.
A wave of drones was dispatched from Iran, some 1200 kilometers away, towards Israel.
An Iranian Shahed 136 Drone, with the maximum speed of 185 k/h takes hours to cover a distance of 1200 kilometers -- suggesting that Israel had a heads-up several hours in advance. Missiles were launched almost an hour later, according to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).
Iranian Shahed 136 Drone
The Iron Dome is commonly recognised as Israel's primary defense against missiles and rockets. But, Israel's defense shield consists of five layers -- with the Iron Dome counting as one. In preparation for such an attack, Israel has been developing its air defense system for the past 15 years.
Its first tier, the Iron beam, destroys the projectile with a pillar of laser light. Like the Iron Dome, its detection radar becomes active, and the laser gun targets the objective. It is used for short-range missiles and artillery shells. It fills the blind spot of the Iron Dome. According to the IDF it is yet to be operational.
The second tier, the most renowned, is the Iron Dome. When a rocket is fired towards Israel, the rocket radar detects and tracks it. The control system estimates the impact point, and finally the nearest launcher engages and launches a missile towards the rocket. The success rate of the Iron Dome system is close to 96%, meaning out of 100 rockets, 4 of them may hit Israeli soil.
David's Sling: Israel’s military system named after the biblical story of David and Goliath. This third tier can target drones, aircraft, medium to long-range missiles, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles covering ranges from 40 to 300 kilometers. It has the capability to provide coverage for all of Israel from a single point. David's Sling was responsible for shooting down the HamasAyyash 250 rocket on October 13, 2023.
According to the IDF, the Israeli Air Force and its allies successfully intercepted and destroyed all 170 drones and 30 cruise missiles outside the country's borders.
Of the 120 ballistic missiles that crossed into Israeli airspace, the IDF reported that the long-range Arrow air defense system successfully intercepted the overwhelming majority.
Arrow 2 and Arrow 3, considered the top tiers of Israel’s multilayered air defenses, complement each other, and track and destroy missiles and rockets with ranges up to 2400 kilometers.
The second factor contributing to the limited impact came from Israel's allies: fighter jets stepped up to boost interception capabilities.
Reports indicate that jets from the US, UK, France, and Jordan formed a robust barrier against the onslaught of drones and missiles from the Islamic Republic.
US forces hit over 80 one-way attack drones, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Monday – meaning that the US downed 47% of Iran’s launched drones.
This was the first-ever attack from Iranian soil on Israel.
An attack that diverted attention from the Gaza war towards the Islamic Republic and united the international community in support of Israel and condemnation of the Iranian government.
Now, as the IRGC authorities declare the conclusion of their operation, Israel asserts that the battle is far from over, hinting at a forthcoming retaliation against the Islamic Republic.
But, for the time being Israel’s next move remains uncertain.
