How Close Is US In Brokering Saudi-Israel Normalization?
The United States is pushing for a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the success of which can further isolate the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region.
The United States is pushing for a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the success of which can further isolate the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region.
Iranian government-controlled media have labeled any potential Saudi Israeli deal a regional security threat, seeing the clear implications of a broad pro-West front emerging in the Middle East. Some analysts in Iran have said that Riyadh anticipating a l agreement with Israel, restored diplomatic relations with Tehran in March.
Axios on Wednesday cited four Israeli and US officials as saying that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to get a security agreement with the US focused on deterring Iran in the context of the mega-deal the Biden administration is trying to broker with Riyadh and Jerusalem.
According to the report, Netanyahu brought up the idea for a US-Israeli security agreement during his last phone call with President Biden in July, telling the American president that he wants to send his confidant and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer to Washington to present a proposal in detail.
The details of Netanyahu's proposed agreement are not known but Israeli officials say it focuses on US security guarantees around a possible military nuclear threat from Iran. According to these sources, Netanyahu sees the US-Israeli security agreement in the context of the broader deal the US is trying to reach with Saudi Arabia that would also include a Saudi-Israel normalization agreement.
The Biden administration and Saudi officials are also discussing a possible security agreement, but the Washington is reluctant to include a NATO-style Article 5 commitment, which Riyadh wants. Article 5 provides that if a NATO ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the alliance will consider it as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the ally under attack.
According to an unnamed US official, the Biden administration did not accept the Saudi request but did agree to discuss what some US officials are calling an "article 4.5" commitment — a similar security guarantee that would fall short of the Saudi expectations but would still be significant.
Moreover, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that the US and Saudi Arabia have agreed on the broad contours of the deal for Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel in exchange for concessions that would help promote the creation of a Palestinian state and civilian nuclear help as well as the security guarantees.
The WSJ claimed that US officials are cautiously optimistic that Washington and Riyadh would hammer out the finer details of what would be “the most momentous Middle East peace deal in a generation” within the next nine to 12 months. However, they warned that they face long odds. “There’s a work plan to explore the elements of what this would be and test the boundaries of what’s possible,” said one senior US official.
The efforts for what the so-called ‘mega deal’ accelerated after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met in Jeddah two weeks ago with Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser.
Biden’s efforts to finalize the deal before the US presidential election campaign starts indicate Washington’s aspirations to remain a central player in the Middle East, perhaps to contain Iran, isolate Russia, and neutralize China’s bid to supplant Washington’s interests in the region.
Later on Wednesday, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that negotiators still had a long way to go, something that Haaretz framed as White House throwing cold water on reports of Saudi-Israel normalization.
Emphasizing that the reports gave the impression that the discussions are farther along and closer to some sense of certainty than they actually are, Kirby said, "There are still a lot of conversations that have to occur before we get there. Bottom line: there's no agreed-to set of negotiations, there's no agreed-to framework to codify normalization or any of the other security considerations that we and our friends have in the region. But there is a commitment by the administration to keep talking and to keep trying to move things forward."
In an op-ed for the WSJ on Tuesday, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen confirmed that the US should give Saudi Arabia a guarantee to defend it against Iranian nuclear aggression as part of a normalization deal with Israel. Comparing Iran's potential nuclear threat to North Korea’s actual nuclear threat to South Korea, Cohen said, “The US defense commitment acts as South Korea’s deterrent against Northern aggression. A comparable American defense pledge could reassure Middle Eastern nations, primarily Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf states.”
While US, Israeli, and even Saudi officials – such as Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan – believe that normalizing ties between Jerusalem and Riyadh would bring significant benefits to the region, Iran -- quite counterintuitively – keeps warning regional countries against it as efforts to expand the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia seem likely to bear fruits.
The footage circulating on social media captured Hassan Ghazizadeh Hashemi, the former Health Minister in President Hassan Rouhani's administration, strolling through the streets of Montreal, accompanied by his family. The video is part of promotional materials for Quebec's tourism industry.
“Canada has designated the Islamic Republic of Iran as a regime that has engaged in terrorism and systematic and gross human rights violations,” Marco Mendicino, former Minister of Public Safety announced in November 2022.
After years of calls by human rights activists and Iranians dissidents, Canada finally announced sanctions last November against Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), permanently banning over 10,000 of its officers and other senior officials from entering Canada.
“We’re using the most powerful tools at our disposal to crack down on Iran's brutal regime. We'll be pursuing a listing of IRGC leadership under our Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, making over 10,000 senior IRGC members inadmissible to Canada,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at the time.
According to Marco Mendicino, a member of parliament who was the Minister of Public Safety at the time, the entry ban into Canada was not limited to just members of the Revolutionary Guards, but also included heads of state, members of the Cabinet, ambassadors, senior diplomats, members of the judiciary, senior military and intelligence officials and senior public servants.
No Canadian official has yet commented about Ghazizadeh’s presence but the ban on regime officials “applies to those who were senior officials at any time from November 15, 2019, onwards.” Ghazizadeh was elected as the health minister in 2012 and resigned from this position in January 2017.
Nevertheless, based on the spirit of the legislation and the designation of the regime as a sponsor of terror, Ghazizadeh’s admission raises questions.
Canada-based activist and opposition figure Hamed Esmaeilion -- whose daughter and wife were killed by the IRGC in the downing of a Ukrainian airliner in 2020 -- took to Twitter on Wednesday in protest to Ghazizadeh’s presence in Canada despite the ban.
He called on Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Minister Marc Miller to follow up on the case. “We need a response and action now,” he said.
Similar calls for action abound on social media platforms with the Iranian Twitterati posting controversial remarks or actions by Ghazizadeh during his term as the health minister. Hailing from Khorasan province, Ghazizadeh’s family has always been close to the ruling regime in Iran. One of his cousins, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, a lawmaker from 2008 to 2021 is now Ebrahim Raisi’s vice president and the head of Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs, a wealthy organization in Iran with hands in numerous construction projects. Another one of his cousins is Ehsan Ghazizadeh Hashemi, also a lawmaker since 2016 and a former senior official.
Canada broke off diplomatic relations with Iran in 2012, citing its support for the Syrian government, non-compliance with United Nations resolutions over its nuclear program, and fears for Canadian diplomats after protestors stormed the British embassy.
Critics of the Islamic Republic have repeatedly called on Western countries to restrict and prohibit the travel of Iranian officials and high-ranking figures to their territories, a measure meant to prevent Western countries from being a safe haven for the regime’s officials.
The families of victims of Ukrainian flight PS752, shot down by the IRGC, have held numerous rallies calling for tougher measures against Iran.
In September 2022, a Canadian journalist criticized Ottawa for spreading a “lush welcome mat” for rich Iranians linked to the regime but refusing visas to relatives of Flight PS752 victims. Earlier in 2022, several human rights groups issued an open letter calling on Canada to stop former officers of Iran’s military and other human rights violators from entering the country after a short video of a retired commander of the Tehran's Police forces and the IRGC, Morteza Talaie, working out in a gym in Canada went viral.
Despite these calls, senior figures are being spotted in foreign countries. In one of the latest cases in early July, German media confirmed the presence of Hossein-Ali Nayeri, a 'hanging judge' involved in the summary trial and execution of thousands of Iranian prisoners in the 1980s, receiving medical treatment in a hospital in Hanover, Germany.
The US Central Command announced on Tuesday that Gen. Kurilla also paid a visit to the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, two US allies in the Persian Gulf, whose commercial maritime traffic face a constant threat harassment from Iran.
Iran attempted to seize two commercial vessels in early July in the Persian Gulf but was met with a US response and withdrew, according to the Pentagon. Tehran has harassed or seized more than 15 commercial ships in the past two years in the general area of the Persian Gulf.
Anticipating continued Iranian attacks on commercial shipping, the White House had announced in May that the Biden administration would be making moves in the region, but at the time did not say what they would include.
Later, the Pentagon began to augment the US military presence in the region by deploying F-16 and F-35 warplanes in July, and also dispatching three additional naval vessels carrying more than 3,000 sailors, including Marines.
Following Iran's March agreement to a détente with Saudi Arabia facilitated by China, numerous observers have asserted that the United States is experiencing a loss of influence in the Middle East, signaling a potential end to the era of American dominance in the region.
In a perplexing announcement on May 31st, the UAE announced its withdrawal from a US-led maritime security coalition, a move that took place earlier in the year. The UAE further indicated its ongoing evaluation of its security partnerships.
"As a result of our ongoing evaluation of effective security cooperation with all partners, two months ago, the UAE withdrew its participation in the Combined Maritime Forces," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement carried by state news agency WAM.
Iran's navy commander said June 3 that his country and Saudi Arabia, as well as three other Persian Gulf states, plan to form a naval alliance, including India and Pakistan.
"The countries of the region have today realized that only cooperation with each other brings security to the area," Iranian army's navy commander Shahram Irani was quoted as saying.
However, this was not confirmed by any of the other countries allegedly involved and seemed to be an Iranian attempt to gain political leverage after the UAE announcement.
The following day, US 5th Fleet and Combined Maritime Forces spokesperson Cmdr. Tim Hawkins told Breaking Defense, a digital news outlet on global military, “It defies reason that Iran, the number one cause of regional instability, claims it wants to form a naval security alliance to protect the very waters it threatens.”
The UAE announcement, however, remained a mystery, without any follow-up confirmation of its withdrawal from the US-led coalition, or a clear denial by the United States. It is possible that Abu Dhabi was exerting pressure on Washington to show more determination in deterring Iranian maritime adventures.
In this context, General Kurilla's recent sea voyage through the Strait of Hormuz, his diplomatic visits to two allied nations, and the bolstering of US naval and aerial capabilities in the region collectively aimed to provide reassurance to Arab allies.
Kurilla visited UAE where he met with Armed Forces Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Issa Saif Mohammed al-Mazrouei. He then traveled to Bahrain where he met with King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, Lieutenant General Abdullah bin Hassan Al Nuaimi, the Bahrain Minister of Defense Affairs, and the US Fifth Fleet Headquarters.
“These trips to the region provide me deep insights into the relationships with our partners and the readiness of the US and Coalition forces deployed there” said Gen. Kurilla. “I continue to be impressed with the high level of readiness, professionalism, and capability of the US forces serving in CENTCOM. The commitment of our forces and partners is key to regional security.”
Britain on Tuesday imposed sanctions on an Iranian drone maker and a range of other foreign businesses, accusing them of supplying Russian forces with weapons and components for use against Ukraine. Canada targeted seven people whom Ottawa accused of being a menace to international security or involved in activities that constitute gross and systemic violations of human rights in Iran.
According to a statement from the Canadian foreign ministry, the sanctioned individuals include senior Iranian officials involved in entities that supply materials to Iran's national Law Enforcement Command or individuals who hold senior positions in state-directed firms that produce lethal combat drones used by Iran-backed forces “to destabilize the region” or that are exported to Russia.
Canada’s package of sanctions – its 13th against the regime since October 2022 – included Ali-Akbar Ahmadian, the new Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council; Brigadier General Abdolkarim Bani-Tarafi, the Chairman of the Iran Aviation Industry Organization; as well as three board members of the company Reza Khaki, Majid Reza Niyazi-Angili, and Vali Arlanizadeh. Fatemeh Haghshenas and Masoumeh Teymouri, board members of Imen Sanat Zaman Fara -- a company that manufactures equipment for security forces – were also sanctioned in this round.
“Today’s sanctions send a clear message to the Iranian regime that Canada will not tolerate its gross and systematic violations of human rights and its ongoing grave breach of international peace and security. We will continue to use all the tools at our disposal to respond to Iran’s egregious actions,” said Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly.
London’s punitive measures focused more on Moscow’s access to foreign military equipment, blacklisting 25 individuals and businesses in Iran, Turkey, Belarus, Slovakia, Switzerland and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Russia supporting the war in Ukraine.
Iranian drone maker Paravar Pars and seven of its executives -- already under US sanctions since February – who are involved in the research, development and production of UAVs for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as well as two Turkey-based exporters of microelectronics, Azu International and Turkik Union, were among those targeted by Britain.
A statement by British Foreign Minister James Cleverly described Paravar Pars as “a key regime-linked UAV manufacturer” and accused the Islamic Republic of being “responsible for supplying Russia with the kamikaze drones used to bombard Ukraine.”
Cleverly said on Tuesday, “We are also taking further action to tackle Iran and Belarus’ support for Russia’s military,” highlighting that “The UK has previously imposed sanctions on Belarus for continuing to actively facilitate Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has called out Iran’s destabilizing role in global security, including through sanctions against Iranian suppliers of the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) used by Russia to target Ukrainian civilians.”
“There is nowhere for those sustaining Russia’s military machine to hide," he underlined.
The British government has sanctioned over 1,600 individuals and entities since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but according to Cleverly, the latest round of sanctions marked its biggest ever action on military suppliers in third countries.
"Today's landmark sanctions will further diminish Russia’s arsenal and close the net on supply chains propping up (President) Putin's now struggling defense industry," British foreign minister James Cleverly said.
Britain, the US, the European Union and several other countries have imposed a range of sanctions since last February to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special military operation".