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ANALYSIS

US-Iran talks may avoid war but deep hostility will thwart genuine peace

Ata Mohamed Tabriz
Ata Mohamed Tabriz

Iran analyst

May 8, 2025, 19:27 GMT+1Updated: 08:15 GMT+0
Women walk in front of new anti-US murals on the walls of the former US embassy in Tehran, Iran
Women walk in front of new anti-US murals on the walls of the former US embassy in Tehran, Iran

Tehran and Washington are set for another round of talks this weekend, but early optimism has dampened amid deep mistrust and mutual threats of attack, making any deal unlikely to lead to a lasting peace.

The most forthright caution, curiously, has come from Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who—without referring to the current negotiations—reminded his hardline base that deals with foes are permissible if temporary.

The ultimate foe in Khamenei’s mind, of course, is America: presented more as an evil being than a country - the centerpiece of a narrative that manufactures, and is sustained by, hostility.

This narrative is, in many ways, reciprocated. Successive US administrations have portrayed Iran not just as a rival state, but the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism—a rogue actor bent on disrupting the global order.

Like Tehran’s view of America, this framing is not just rhetoric; it underpins policy, shapes alliances and narrows the space for diplomacy.

As talks resume, staunch anti-Americans in Iran warn against trusting “the Great Satan”, while the so-called hawks in the US decry any compromise with “the Mad Mullahs.”

Ingrained enmity

Despite gestures suggesting de-escalation—like the quiet removal of American flags from Iranian street protests—the hostile rhetoric has not faded. That’s because the tension is embedded not just in language, but in military posture.

The Trump administration has deployed two new warships to the region and deepened defense ties with Israel and Iran’s Arab neighbors.

Meanwhile the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen managed to strike deep into Israel with a ballistic missile landing near its main airport on Saturday.

Both sides are redrawing lines of confrontation. Diplomacy is conducted under a constant shadow of war.

"I’m issuing a serious warning: if you make one wrong move, we will open up the gates of hell on you," Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Hossein Salami said on Thursday, referring to the United States and Israel.

"Sit down and stay in your place ... we have made extensive preparations."

The US government is not far off in tone. President Trump has framed the talks as a binary choice: agreement or war. “There are only two alternatives there," he told a conservative podcast on Wednesday. "Blow them up nicely or blow them up viciously."

Israel’s open threats to strike Iranian nuclear facilities and its insistence on the right to preemptive action only heighten the pressure.

In this climate, negotiations serve less to resolve conflict than to manage it. As long as each side sees the other as an irredeemable enemy—and enters talks prepared for battle—diplomacy becomes an extension of confrontation by other means.

Khamenei’s message about temporary deals may have been cryptic. But it had a clear implication: that diplomacy is a tool for crisis management, not conflict resolution.

Tehran and Washington may speak of de-escalation, but their dominant narratives remain unchanged—and the structures that sustain enmity show no signs of retreat.

Seen in this light, the ongoing talks appear to be more of a phase in a familiar cycle than an auspicious breakthrough.

Even if a deal is reached, without structural change, the hostility will likely endure—and should it unravel, military confrontation may appear a legitimate course more then ever.

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US sanctions Chinese refinery, operators for handling Iranian oil

May 8, 2025, 16:48 GMT+1

The United States on Tuesday imposed fresh sanctions on another Chinese refinery and multiple logistics firms for facilitating the sale and shipment of Iranian oil, expanding its efforts to squeeze Tehran’s revenues.

The measure targets Hebei Xinhai Chemical Group Co., an independent refinery Washington asserts has received hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Iranian crude, some linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Three Chinese port operators in Shandong province were also sanctioned for managing terminals that received sanctioned shipments from Iran’s shadow fleet, vessels used to hide the origin of shipments.

“The United States remains resolved to intensify pressure on all elements of Iran’s oil supply chain to prevent the regime from generating revenue to further its destabilizing agenda,” treasury secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement released on the website of the treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

Seven vessels and the companies that own them were also sanctioned, according to OFAC citing their role in transferring Iranian petroleum to China. Among those were tankers flagged in Panama and Hong Kong.

Two Indian ship captains were also designated for years-long involvement in steering sanctioned tankers carrying Iranian oil, the US treasury said.

The sanctions fall under executive orders by US president Donald Trump as part of his so-called maximum pressure campaign on Iran alongside the ongoing diplomatic push to resolve the standoff with Tehran over its nuclear program.

"We're trying to work on Iran to get that solved without having to get into any bombing," Trump said in his latest statement on Iran on Thursday.

"As we say, big bombing. I don't want to do that. I want them to be very successful," he added.

US VP suggests some leeway on Iran nuclear enrichment

May 7, 2025, 16:39 GMT+1

US Vice President J.D. Vance said on Wednesday that Iran must not be allowed to enrich uranium to levels that would enable it to develop nuclear weapons—remarks that may be seen as an apparent nod to Iran’s insistence on maintaining low-level enrichment.

"They can have civil nuclear power. OK, we don't mind that, but... no one right now has a civil nuclear program with their entire enrichment infrastructure that can enrich to the 90-plus percent needed to get to fissile material and a nuclear weapon," Vance said at the Munich Security Conference in Washington DC.

Vance said the Trump administration has no problem with Iran having nuclear power.

"We're fine with that. But you can't have the kind of enrichment program that allows you to get to a nuclear weapon, and that's where we draw the line," he said.

The United States and Iran appear to be on a collision course over whether Tehran should be allowed to enrich uranium in any nuclear deal between the two arch-foes, potentially endangering talks headed for a fourth round this weekend.

Last month, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said "there’s a pathway to a civil, peaceful nuclear program if they want one, but if they insist on enriching, then they will be the only country in the world that doesn’t have a 'weapons program,' quote-unquote, but is enriching. And so I think that’s problematic."

The UN nuclear watchdog said last month that Iran is only non-nuclear armed state enriching uranium to 60%. Several countries which do not possess nuclear weapons, including Japan, Brazil, Germany and the Netherlands, enrich uranium at lower levels.

In his Wednesday remarks, Vance said his country is seeking a deal with Iran that would not only completely eliminate the possibility of it acquiring a nuclear weapon but also pave the way for Tehran’s return to the global economy.

"We think that there is a deal here that would reintegrate Iran into the global economy. That would be really good for the Iranian people, but would result in the complete cessation of any chance that they could get a nuclear weapon,"

"That's what we're negotiating towards."

Vance said the Trump administration has been "very happy by how the Iranians have responded to some of the points that we have made" in the Omani-mediated talks.

"Without prejudging the negotiations, I will say so far so good... We've been very happy that some of the intermediaries and some of the folks who are in the room, the role that they've played, the Omanis in particular, have played a very positive role, and we're very grateful to that."

He said "so far we're on the right pathway. But this is going to end somewhere. And it will end either in Iran eliminating their nuclear program, their nuclear weapons program."

Iran rebukes Trump’s reported plan to rename Persian Gulf in official US usage

May 7, 2025, 07:29 GMT+1

President Donald Trump plans to announce that the US will begin officially referring to the Persian Gulf as the “Arabian Gulf,” the Associated Press reported — a move condemned by Iran as a politically motivated affront to its national identity and historical legacy.

The move, which comes amid a broader effort to deepen ties with Persian Gulf Arab states, marks a break with long-standing international convention, prompting sharp rebuke from Iran, which shares the longest coastline along the body of water.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the reported decision politically motivated and historically inaccurate, saying, “The name Persian Gulf, like many geographical designations, is deeply rooted in human history.”

"Politically motivated attempts to alter the historically established name of the Persian Gulf are indicative of hostile intent toward Iran and its people, and are firmly condemned. Such biased actions are an affront to all Iranians, regardless of their background or place of residence,” Iran's top diplomat said on X.

Two US officials familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the announcement would be made while Trump visits Riyadh as part of a regional tour that includes Qatar and the United Arab Emirates—countries that have long pushed for the geographic name change.

“The president is expected to unveil what he calls a ‘historic reorientation’ of US nomenclature to better reflect regional alliances,” one of the officials said.

Trump himself teased a major announcement during a meeting at the White House on Tuesday. “It’ll be one of the most important announcements that have been made in many years about a certain subject, a very important subject,” he said.

Known globally as the Persian Gulf since at least the 16th century, the name of the inland sea has become a politically and culturally charged issue. Arab states often use “Arabian Gulf” in official documents and maps, while Iran considers the historical term a matter of national identity.

“The Persian Gulf is not just a name. It is part of who we are,” an Iranian diplomat in Tehran said on condition of anonymity. “Changing it under pressure from petrodollars will not erase thousands of years of history.”

In 2017, during Trump's first administration, his first reference to what he called the "Arabian Gulf" led to public backlash from Tehran.

The Iranian foreign minister at the time, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said: “Everyone knew Trump’s friendship was for sale to the highest bidder. We now know that his geography is, too.”

Iran’s then-president, Hassan Rouhani, also criticized the phrasing, saying Trump should “study geography.”

The US military has unilaterally used “Arabian Gulf” in communications for years, but the White House’s official adoption of the term would represent a new level of endorsement, likely increasing tensions with Tehran.

Under international maritime law, the designation of sea names is handled by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), which currently recognizes the body of water as the “Persian Gulf.” The United Nations and most world maps do the same.

While Trump can direct US federal agencies to use a different name, he cannot enforce the change globally. Congressional legislation would be required to make the shift permanent in US law, and a future administration could easily reverse it.

“Trump can rename it on White House letterhead, but that won’t change global consensus,” said Lisa Barry, a professor of international law at Georgetown University.

The renaming announcement is part of a broader push to align more closely with Persian Gulf Arab monarchies as Trump seeks increased investment from the region and backing for his policies on Iran and Israel.

The announcement also follows a controversial decision earlier this year to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America” in US government usage—a move that led to a legal battle with the Associated Press.

A federal judge ultimately ruled that the AP could not be denied access to government events for refusing to adopt the administration’s preferred terminology, citing First Amendment protections.

The inland sea in question spans about 251,000 square kilometers (97,000 square miles) and borders eight nations: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman. Iran alone accounts for more than 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles) of its coastline.

Trump is scheduled to travel to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13 to 16. The announcement is expected to be made during a keynote speech in Riyadh, though officials said the precise timing remains fluid.

Turkish bank takes Iran sanctions case to US Supreme Court

May 6, 2025, 08:07 GMT+1

Turkey's state-owned Halkbank has asked the US Supreme Court to review a lower court decision that allows it to be prosecuted for allegedly helping Iran evade American sanctions, a lawyer for the bank said on Monday.

The Supreme Court had set a Monday deadline for Halkbank to file a petition appealing the October 2024 ruling by the 2nd US Circuit Court of Appeals in Manhattan, which cleared the way for the prosecution.

In a letter to the appeals court, Halkbank's lawyer Robert Cary confirmed the petition had been filed, though it was not immediately available on the Supreme Court's website.

Halkbank has pleaded not guilty to charges of fraud, money laundering, and conspiracy, accused of using money servicers and front companies in Iran, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates to circumvent US sanctions.

US prosecutors allege that Halkbank facilitated the secret transfer of $20 billion in restricted Iranian funds, converted oil revenue into gold and cash for Iranian interests, and fabricated documentation for food shipments to justify oil proceeds transfers.

The case, initiated in 2019, has strained relations between the US and Turkey, with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan denouncing it as an "unlawful, ugly" step.

However, both Erdogan and US President Donald Trump reported a productive phone call on Monday, with mutual invitations to visit their respective countries.

It is Halkbank's second appeal to the Supreme Court. In 2023, the court ruled that while the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act of 1976 shields foreign countries from civil liability, it does not extend to criminal cases.

The Supreme Court then instructed the 2nd Circuit to further examine whether common law immunity protected Halkbank, leading to the October ruling that the bank could be prosecuted.

Trump maintains his so-called maximum pressure campaign against Iran, threatening secondary sanctions and targeting those aiding sanctions evasion, while indirect nuclear talks between the US and Iran continue.

Tehran-linked suspect among Iranians held in UK terror plot investigation

May 6, 2025, 04:00 GMT+1

At least one of the five Iranian nationals arrested in the United Kingdom over the weekend in connection with an alleged terror plot has close ties to the Islamic Republic, The Telegraph reported citing an informed source.

The man, whose family reportedly owns prominent businesses in Iran, is described as “very well connected” to Tehran’s leadership.

His arrest was part of a coordinated national operation involving Counter Terrorism Policing and UK Special Forces that resulted in raids across several cities, including London, Rochdale, Manchester, Stockport, and Swindon, according to the Met Police.

Authorities believe the group was just hours away from launching an attack on what police described as a “specific premises.”

Four of the men, aged between 29 and 46, continue to be held under the Terrorism Act 2006 after police secured extended detention warrants. A fifth man, aged 24 and arrested in Manchester, has been released on conditional bail.

The potential involvement of the Iranian suspects in a plot marks a concerning shift in Iran’s tactics, which have typically relied on criminal proxies to carry out operations abroad.

This case, if confirmed, could point to a more direct engagement in overseas activities by Iranian nationals themselves.

Commander Dominic Murphy, head of the Met’s Counter Terrorism Command, said the investigation remains in its early stages but stressed its complexity and national scale.

“We are working incredibly hard, with public safety at the forefront of our ongoing efforts,” he said, urging the public to avoid speculation and report any suspicious activity.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper praised the work of security services, calling it one of the most significant counter-terrorism and counter-state threat operations in recent years.