Iran after Khamenei? Israeli and US threats push succession into view

The question of succession has taken on new urgency in Tehran since Israeli missile strikes began and the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly moved to a secure location as he was threatened by Israeli leaders and President Trump.

But is he truly preparing to loosen his four-decades grip on Iran?

Khamenei has named three senior clerics as potential successors in case he is killed during the war with Israel, the New York Times reported Saturday, citing Iranian officials familiar with his emergency war plans.

Last week, Iran International reported that the 86-year-old leader has delegated authority to the Revolutionary Guards’ high command, effectively empowering the IRGC to manage critical decisions if he dies.

While these steps fall short of a formal emergency decree, they suggest an extraordinary contingency effort as missile exchanges between Israel and Iran enter a second week. Khamenei’s move appears aimed at ensuring continuity of command in the event he is incapacitated or killed.

Defiant messaging, emergency measures

Following the leader’s line, President Massoud Pezeshkian also ordered cabinet ministers last week to delegate some authority to deputies and senior managers.

Yet even as both leaders brace for escalation, Khamenei struck a defiant tone on June 18.

“Normal life is going on in Iran,” he said, rejecting retreat in what appeared to be a response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for “unconditional surrender.”

If the IRGC power-sharing reports are accurate, they could mark one of the most significant shifts in Iran’s post-revolution political order. For nearly four decades, Khamenei has centralized power—political, religious, military, and economic—around his office.

A legacy of control—and a quiet succession talk

Even Iran’s clerical seminaries, once independent and funded by religious donations, now fall under state control. Since 1989, Khamenei has turned clerics and seminarians into government employees, paid by his office and subject to dismissal if their loyalty is questioned.

As commander-in-chief, Khamenei exercises unilateral authority over military matters, bypassing the Majles on decisions of war and peace.

He also controls the state broadcaster IRIB, directing both leadership and editorial content. His office oversees several Tehran dailies and scores of newspapers nationwide—all part of a state-aligned media network.

Khamenei’s economic vision, framed around his concept of a “Resistance Economy,” has similarly concentrated power.

Though cabinet ministers exist, all major financial decisions—especially the annual budget—are dictated by his office. Massive state-linked economic conglomerates dominate the landscape and stifle the private sector.

In recent years, he has further sidelined parliament, issuing implicit directives that override legislation and block ministerial impeachments.

Succession has long been the Islamic Republic’s most sensitive—and unspoken—question. Few dared to discuss it openly. But in recent years, and especially in the current crisis, the topic has crept into public discourse.

Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, is frequently floated in both establishment and opposition circles, though never officially acknowledged.

The Israeli strikes have made the issue more urgent.

One can imagine the question of who—or what—comes next, and whether that includes a possible thaw with the United States, being debated in private among Iran’s ruling elite. But no one dares say it aloud. Not yet.