Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have climbed despite the conflict, with Washington pointing to rising exports as Iran warns shipping companies against unauthorized passage and threatens US forces with retaliation if fighting resumes.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Sunday that oil flows through the strait were averaging nearly 13 million barrels a day, with shipments exceeding pre-conflict levels on at least one day last week.
“There was a day just this last week where over 20 million barrels of oil, more than pre-conflict levels, flowed out of the strait,” Wright told Fox News. The current average was “almost 13 million barrels a day,” he added.
Wright attributed pressure on energy prices more to limited refining capacity than to the volume of oil moving through Hormuz.
Iran warns shipping companies
Iran, meanwhile, portrayed the strait as a closely controlled corridor where vessels must comply with rules set by its authorities.
Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority warned charterers against directing ships through routes it considers unauthorized, saying companies that do so could be placed on a non-compliance list and vessels associated with them could face restrictions.
The authority also published a letter it said came from the owners of an unnamed vessel apologizing for an unauthorized transit. According to the letter, the charterer instructed the ship to proceed without completing required declarations and approvals, putting the master under commercial pressure to comply.
The warnings were accompanied by threats from Iranian military officials. Armed forces spokesman Abolfazl Shekarchi said the United States would be “slapped” if it intervened in Hormuz.
A Revolutionary Guards Navy official challenged US President Donald Trump to send a warship near the strait if Washington believed it controlled the waterway, threatening US warships as far away as the Indian Ocean if fighting resumed.
Iranian army chief Amir Hatami also said the war was not over and that the military must remain prepared for further fighting.
Regional calls for safe passage
The dispute has drawn responses from countries concerned about commercial shipping and energy supplies.
Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi told the UN General Assembly that Muscat would continue working to safeguard navigation through Hormuz, urging restraint, dialogue and political solutions.
US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz said 146 countries had condemned Iran over attacks on civilian shipping, describing the Islamic Republic as increasingly isolated.
The rising oil flows point to increased movement through one of the world’s most important energy corridors, but warnings to shipping companies and threats of renewed military action show that control and security in Hormuz remain central to the conflict.
Trump used his address to the United Nations General Assembly this week to call for Iran's “complete economic isolation,” while saying he believed a deal could come after the November midterm elections.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, meanwhile, said Tehran would not surrender to US pressure but remained open to diplomacy.
The two sides held their first indirect talks in months on the sidelines of the UN gathering but remained far apart on how to end the war, including over Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Ludovic Hood, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute who spent two decades as a US diplomat and previously served as special adviser for the Middle East to Vice President Mike Pence, told Iran International's Eye for Iran that the approaching elections may help explain the current pause.
“We have elections coming up in America that I think have partly bounded President Trump’s willingness to be more confrontational at this point in time,” Hood said.
He described the conflict as a “standoff” with “more chapters to be written,” saying Trump could face a decision over whether to escalate again after the midterms or as the United States enters the new year.
“He may seek to escalate again militarily,” Hood said.
Potential targets could include commercial and economic assets inside Iran owned by or directly linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, he said, if Trump chooses to intensify the campaign.
Pressure without political change
Iran has suffered major military losses while contending with a US naval blockade and an expanding sanctions campaign. Yet nearly seven months into the war, those pressures have not produced fundamental political change in Tehran.
Hood cautioned against assuming that battlefield losses automatically translate into political change. Instead, he pointed to the cumulative impact of declining revenues, sanctions, domestic discontent and potential strains within the institutions responsible for protecting the state.
He described the Islamic Republic as “about as vulnerable as it’s been in 47 years,” pointing in particular to questions about the government's ability to continue paying salaries, including those of security forces.
“To me, a fifth uprising is a question of when, not if,” he said.
Hood said some people advising Trump have made the case that the collapse of the Islamic Republic is possible, while emphasizing that he was not predicting whether or when that would happen.
Washington has continued tightening economic pressure even as negotiations resumed in New York. New US restrictions on Iran's aviation sector have contributed to the loss of international routes, with additional Iraqi destinations restricting Iranian connections this week.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also urging Washington to maintain sanctions and the naval blockade rather than make concessions prematurely, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
Both governments nevertheless oppose further US military escalation, according to the report.
Hood said the significance of Washington's economic campaign lies not simply in announcing additional sanctions, but in enforcing existing measures and steadily reducing the resources available to Tehran.
Despite the resumption of diplomacy in New York, no breakthrough has emerged. A senior Iranian official told Reuters this week that the two sides remained far apart.
That leaves Washington confronting a larger question: whether the pressure already imposed can fundamentally alter Tehran’s behavior, or whether the current pause will ultimately give way to another round of military escalation.
The answer may become clearer after November—when both Washington and Tehran appear to believe the political calculus could change.
“If Iran cannot fly and receive airport services, no country in the region will have that possibility either,” supreme leader adviser Mohammad Mokhber wrote in a post on Friday. He did not explain how Tehran would enforce the threat.
His remarks echoed Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei, who warned Wednesday that neighboring airports would be unable to operate if they cooperated with Washington’s campaign. Rezaei also warned neighboring countries against joining further US military action.
Airports in Najaf, Erbil and Sulaymaniyah have suspended flights to and from Iran, further narrowing air links with Iraq following restrictions at Baghdad airport. Najaf’s suspension took effect at 2 a.m. Friday until further notice, closing an alternative Iranian authorities had considered for diverted Baghdad-bound services.
Flights to Baghdad and Muscat were canceled on September 23. Iraqi aviation sources told Reuters that Baghdad’s suspension followed government instructions; Iranian aviation spokesman Majid Akhavan said Tehran was discussing Muscat’s restrictions with Oman.
The UAE suspended Iranian airlines’ flights Thursday, explicitly citing US sanctions. Azerbaijan halted services by Iranian carriers Tuesday, while affected airlines stopped flying to Georgia from September 21.
A Tehran-Dushanbe flight also turned back Thursday after Turkmenistan denied permission to cross its airspace. Mahan Air suspended Turkey and Oman services; travel agencies said it had lost ground-handling access in Turkey.
Washington sanctioned 36 aviation-related targets on September 8, including 27 carriers it described as Iran’s remaining unsanctioned airlines and three Turkey-based companies accused of serving Mahan. Treasury says Iranian aviation networks transport weapons, military personnel and illicit cargo.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that foreign airports, fuel suppliers, ground handlers and ticket sellers servicing sanctioned carriers risked US penalties, including exclusion from the dollar system. He said Iranian airlines would effectively lose international operations from September 23.
Those measures do not automatically close foreign airspace. Their effect depends on governments and service providers, and some flights continued. Bloomberg reported at least six departures Wednesday to destinations including Bangkok, Phuket, Shanghai and Kabul.
Foreign carriers have separately withdrawn services. Turkish Airlines told Iran International it had no Iran flights scheduled before March 2027, with no guaranteed restart. Earlier Iranian announcements of continuing Istanbul flights referred to other carriers.
Emirates no longer serves Tehran. Lufthansa and Austrian suspended Iran flights through October 24, while Qatar Airways cited airspace restrictions and tentatively listed November 29 for resumption. Those dates remain uncertain.
Four travel agencies contacted September 21 reported unavailable services across several other routes. Some Pegasus bookings were subsequently canceled, although booking-platform listings were not guarantees of operation.
The disruption affects family visits, business and pilgrimage to Najaf and Karbala. Agencies described travelers flying to Turkey, then taking roughly 17 hours by bus to Van and another 16–17 hours onward to Tehran, excluding border delays.
The UAE also barred Bank Melli branches from Iran-related transactions Wednesday, including trade finance and transfers.
Rezaei linked the aviation warning to Tehran’s broader negotiating position, giving Washington four to five days to accept conditions already sent to mediators before talks or Hormuz’s reopening. He did not list them, saying Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi would convey them again in New York, and presented control of the strait as negotiating leverage.
