US intelligence says Iran's new leader more willing to pursue nuclear weapon
US intelligence agencies believe Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is more willing than his father and predecessor to pursue a nuclear weapon, according to a New York Times report citing officials briefed on the assessment.
The assessment marks a shift in Washington's view of Iran's leadership following the death of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during the war. Officials told the newspaper that while Mojtaba Khamenei has not publicly called for Iran to build a nuclear weapon, US intelligence agencies believe he is more receptive than his father to developing one. Ali Khamenei had publicly maintained that nuclear weapons were forbidden under his religious fatwa.
The report said US officials cautioned that much of the intelligence predates the war and that Mojtaba Khamenei, who was reportedly injured during the conflict, has kept a low profile since taking power. Officials also said Iran has not resumed nuclear enrichment despite moving some equipment to the heavily fortified underground facility known as Pickaxe Mountain.
An Iranian flag is raised during a state-organized ceremony at Tehran's Azadi Square commemorating the country's slain Supreme Leader, July 24, 2026
President Donald Trump’s increasingly explicit threats of a wider Iran war have fueled anxiety and speculation inside the country, as analysts and social media users debate whether the conflict is approaching a more destructive and unpredictable phase.
On Friday, Trump met his top advisors to discuss the possible escalation but later told reporters he had not yet decided whether to launch major new strikes. He at the same time warned that the US military is “locked and loaded” to escalate the campaign.
His comments came one day after he told Axios he was considering launching a military strike on Iran "larger than all previous attacks" and that he was close to making a decision.
Inside Iran, however, the focus quickly shifted from Trump's words to what they might signal.
International affairs analyst Amir-Ali Abolfath drew parallels with the opening hours of the war.
"I have the same feeling I had on the night of February 28th before the major attack," he wrote. "It may not happen tomorrow, but if the current trajectory continues, another day like that—or an even bigger one—could lie ahead."
Another widely shared post by X user Tohid Javadi reflected similar anxiety.
"All the signs point to extensive bombing of Iran in the coming hours and days. Unless Iran fully surrenders, this situation will continue."
Military exchanges widen
The speculation was reinforced by another night of military exchanges.
US Central Command carried out strikes mainly across southern Iran targeting military installations, logistics facilities and air defense systems.
Iran, meanwhile, continued attacks on US positions in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq's Kurdistan Region.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it had struck a US base in Kuwait as well as an Amazon data centre in Bahrain, alleging the facility had provided intelligence support to the US military.
Iran's army also claimed attacks on Isa Air Base in Bahrain and Al-Azraq Air Base in Jordan.
In a separate statement, the IRGC urged civilians in those countries to remain at least 500 metres away from potential Iranian targets.
Social media activist Hatef Salehi argued that the scale of the American military buildup suggested Washington was preparing for more than coercive diplomacy.
"This enormous military buildup and deployment of advanced US equipment to the region is highly unlikely to be merely psychological or diplomatic pressure on Iran."
War or pressure campaign?
Not everyone believes the latest escalation points to an imminent regional war.
Political analyst Amin Shayegan argued that the confrontation remains "more a contest of endurance than a purely military competition."
According to Shayegan, Washington is attempting to gradually erode Iran's military and economic capabilities, while Tehran is seeking to tie the costs of the conflict to global energy markets and international trade in an effort to alter US calculations.
Diplomatic activity has added another layer of uncertainty.
Britain announced the withdrawal of all its diplomats from Tehran, while reports circulated that US military aircraft had departed British air bases for operations related to Iran.
Iranian media also reported that French and German diplomats had left Tehran. France's embassy denied those reports, while the German embassy told Iran International that it remained open but was currently providing limited consular services.
Attention also focused on the arrival of an Omani delegation in Tehran.
Officially, IRNA said the visit concerned coordination of shipping management in the Strait of Hormuz. But Oman has long served as the principal intermediary between Tehran and Washington, prompting widespread speculation online that Muscat could also be carrying messages related to the rapidly escalating conflict.
Some users interpreted the visit as a final warning before a larger US military operation, while hardline commentators instead portrayed it as another attempt to revive negotiations—an outcome they argued Tehran should reject.
A member of the U.S. Capitol police patrols following a vote in the U.S. House of Representatives on a bipartisan war powers resolution aiming to stop the military campaign against Iran, on Capitol Hill, in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 5, 2026
President Donald Trump's hint at a larger military operation against Iran has intensified debate in Washington, with Republican allies rallying behind the president while Democrats accuse him of violating the Constitution and seek to curb his war powers.
The debate has grown louder as speculation mounts over whether the conflict could eventually require American ground forces, despite repeated White House assurances that no such deployment is planned.
Speaking to Iran International, Senator Ted Cruz called Trump's military campaign "the most consequential decision of his presidency" but said he did not expect a prolonged deployment of US ground troops.
"I do not believe there is any possibility that the president will send boots on the ground for any sustained involvement," he said. "There might be ... a limited involvement."
Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville likewise argued that decisions over troop deployments should rest entirely with Trump.
"We've got a commander in chief. He got 80 million votes," Tuberville told Iran International. "He should be able to do what's right for the country."
Asked whether he would support sending troops into Iran, Tuberville said the decision was "up to him."
Democrats challenge legality
Democratic Senator Tim Kaine argued that the administration had already exceeded its constitutional authority.
"The president is in the middle of an illegal war," Kaine told Iran International. "He violated the Constitution by starting war without Congress."
Kaine also said Trump had violated the War Powers Resolution by continuing military operations beyond the statutory deadline without congressional authorization.
"He is triply violating the law," Kaine said, adding that "Congress needs to stop this war."
The exchange highlighted a widening divide on Capitol Hill, where Republicans argue the campaign is necessary to restore deterrence and Democrats counter that any deployment of US ground troops requires explicit congressional authorization.
The Senate this week voted narrowly against advancing legislation that would have required congressional authorization for continued hostilities, leaving Trump with broad operational freedom even as the political debate over the next phase of the conflict intensifies.
The debate has sharpened as the conflict enters a more dangerous phase.
Trump said this week he was considering a "massive attack" against Iran larger than previous operations while insisting no final decision had been made. The White House has continued to maintain that it has no plans to deploy US ground troops.
Iran has responded with threats of its own.
On Friday, Major General Abdolrahim Abdollahi, commander of Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, declared that Iran would kill one American service member for every Iranian citizen killed in US attacks.
"The rule ... is now a definitive and officially declared equation of the battlefield," he said.
Satellite image shows extensive destruction at Ali Khamenei's compound in Tehran after the US-Israeli airstrike on Feb. 28 that killed Khamenei and several senior military commanders.
A meeting at Ali Khamenei's office where he was killed in February was focused on preparations to manage future protests as well as responding to what officials believed was an imminent US-Israeli attack, according to Noor News, a security-linked media outlet.
The report, published on Friday, followed recent remarks by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who said the US-Israeli attack that killed Khamenei and several senior military commanders did not occur during a full meeting of Iran's Defense Council. Instead, Araghchi said, a subordinate committee of the council, chaired by the council's secretary, was meeting at the time.
According to Noor News, the committee was chaired by Ali Shamkhani and was discussing the implementation of a comprehensive plan to organize resources, personnel, structures and equipment to manage future protests, while also assessing what participants believed was an imminent US-Israeli attack on Iran.
Protest response and military planning
The outlet said officials viewed the country as facing a "multi-layered threat" combining foreign military action with the prospect of domestic unrest, making preparations for both scenarios a priority.
The protest management plan, Noor News wrote, gained urgency after nationwide protests in January 2026. Khamenei, it added, rejected a proposal to transfer responsibility for the plan to the Supreme National Security Council's secretariat and instead instructed Shamkhani to oversee its implementation until its completion.
Khamenei and Shamkhani, the report added, also emphasized reducing casualties among civilians and protesters during demonstrations, leading to the development of new equipment and procedures for managing public gatherings.
The January protests were triggered by soaring prices, a collapsing currency and deep public anger toward the Islamic Republic. What began as an economic protest quickly evolved into a nationwide political crisis, prompting one of the most intense crackdowns in the Islamic Republic’s history.
Authorities responded with internet shutdowns, mass arrests and a violent crackdown. More than 36,500 Iranians were killed by security forces during the nationwide crackdown on January 8 and 9, according to classified government documents and other evidence reviewed by Iran International's Editorial Board.
The strike began while the committee was in session, killing Shamkhani and several senior military commanders, according to Noor News. The outlet said the meeting was intended to prepare for what participants believed would be simultaneous external military action and internal unrest.
Khamenei was killed on February 28 in the opening hours of the US-Israeli war against Iran. He died in a coordinated airstrike targeting his heavily fortified compound in Tehran as part of a broader operation aimed at decapitating Iran's military and political leadership. Satellite imagery later showed extensive destruction at the compound.
Khamenei, who had ruled Iran since 1989, was 86. The Assembly of Experts subsequently appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as Iran's new Supreme Leader.
File ohoto shows a police officer standing inside a café in Tehran during an inspection.
Several cafés in central Tehran have been shut down after authorities renewed pressure over compulsory hijab, days after senior clerics called for stricter enforcement and weeks after the government briefly tolerated looser dress code during wartime pro-establishment gatherings.
Café owners describe a renewed campaign against businesses associated with a different urban lifestyle.
Among the cafés forced to close in recent days were some located along Tehran's central streets. Some had previously been shuttered over allegations they failed to enforce Iran's compulsory hijab rules.
The latest wave followed public appeals by Friday prayer leaders for tougher action.
“The situation regarding hijab in society is not acceptable,” Mohammad Reza Naseri, the Friday prayer imam of Yazd, said on July 17, urging officials and cultural institutions to confront what he described as “corruption and indecency.”
In the northern city of Rasht, Friday prayer imam Rasoul Falahati praised pro-government nighttime gatherings and argued that confronting what he called “organized unveiling” should also involve public participation. Falahati urged the government and parliament to fully implement Iran's hijab law.
Days later, café owners in central Tehran found their businesses sealed.
'They saw us as the odd ones out'
The owner of a café on Sanaii Street in Tehran, which was closed on July 20, told Iran International that unusual pressure had built over recent weeks, saying organizers of nighttime gatherings appeared to view cafés such as his as incompatible with the atmosphere they wanted to create.
According to the owner, plainclothes men carrying radios and firearms visited the café twice in the days before the funeral of Ali Khamenei, the slain leader of the Islamic Republic, describing the business, its staff and customers as “a stain of shame” and “the enemy's foot soldiers.”
“One of them said our city was preparing for the funeral of the leader, yet you are here engaged in pleasure, music and corruption,” the owner recalled.
He said he warned employees that closure appeared imminent.
A young woman who managed the dining area at another shuttered café on the same street said rumors of inspections had circulated the previous day, but the conduct of officials still came as a shock.
“The way they stormed in and behaved was so aggressive and disrespectful that everyone was stunned,” she said. “Some colleagues did not even have time to collect their personal belongings before the café was closed.”
Wartime images told a different story
The closures stand in sharp contrast with scenes seen only weeks earlier.
During the 40-day war and its aftermath, women without compulsory hijab appeared openly at pro-establishment nighttime gatherings and at Ali Khamenei's funeral. State media interviewed some of them, and their images appeared in official coverage.
Women gather at a café in Tehran. Cafés have become important social spaces for young Iranians, but several venues in the capital were recently closed. (File photo)
Religious singers also adopted a noticeably different tone.
“A woman with loose hijab who has come to the square is the light of our eyes and the daughter of our country,” one speaker said during a gathering.
The imagery contrasted with years of rhetoric from parts of Iran's political and religious establishment portraying women who reject compulsory hijab as posing an ideological challenge to the Islamic Republic.
The difference appeared less a change in official thinking on compulsory hijab than a reflection of changing political priorities. At a moment when authorities sought to project national unity and broad public participation, women with different styles of dress became part of the official narrative. As that period faded, so did the visible tolerance.
The pattern extended beyond dress.
State media also featured rappers performing songs supporting the system and Iran's armed forces, despite rap music facing years of official restrictions and criticism.
The contrast illustrated a broader pattern. Different forms of dress, music or cultural expression appeared acceptable when reinforcing an official political message but faced restrictions once they existed outside that framework.
Pressure spreads beyond Tehran
The closures in central Tehran form part of a broader campaign affecting businesses across Iran.
On May 19, the historic Ameri House hotel complex in the central city of Kashan was closed over what authorities described as failure to observe mandatory hijab rules.
On June 15, the judiciary's Mizan news agency reported that prosecutors ordered a Tehran café closed and opened a criminal case against its managers after images circulated online from an event authorities said violated legal and religious standards.
The campaign expanded elsewhere.
On July 2, the public prosecutor of Kohgiluyeh County announced the closure of 10 cafés and teahouses in Dehdasht for allegedly failing to observe religious standards.
Less than three weeks later, the Mohseni Mansion, a restored historic Qajar-era property operating as a hotel and restaurant in the southern city of Behbahan, was shut over what officials described as optional hijab among some customers and the playing of music.
A customer smokes a cigarette inside a café in central Tehran. (File photo)
Authorities in Lorestan, Ardebil and Aran va Bidgol have also announced closures of businesses over accusations including unveiling, failure to observe Islamic standards, moral violations.
Competing accounts
Officials and business owners offer different explanations for the closures.
Tasnim News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, rejected suggestions that the cafés had been targeted over morality enforcement. The businesses, it said, were closed solely because of licensing and trade violations and that the action had “no connection” to moral security.
They describe earlier warnings, visits by plainclothes personnel, scrutiny of customers' clothing and growing pressure surrounding the atmosphere inside their businesses. Their accounts differ sharply from the official explanation and leave unanswered questions about the principal reason behind the closures.
For many owners, the consequences extend beyond politics. Many cafés had already struggled amid economic stagnation, falling purchasing power, internet disruptions and a sharp decline in customers. Sudden closure leaves employees without wages, rent unpaid and businesses facing taxes and debts despite being unable to operate.
A shopkeeper sits in darkness at a laptop store in Dezful, southern Iran, during a power outage affecting local businesses, July 14, 2026
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz appears to have dealt far greater damage to its own trade with China than to Beijing's commerce with the rest of the Persian Gulf, according to newly released Chinese customs data.
Between March and June 2026, Iran's non-oil trade with China totaled just $830 million, down from $3.3 billion during the same period last year—a decline of roughly 75%.
Kpler shipping data reviewed by Iran International also point to a sharp decline in Iranian oil exports to China.
Average daily unloadings at Chinese ports fell from 1.74 million barrels per day in April to around 550,000 barrels per day in the first half of July.
Together, the figures suggest the Strait of Hormuz closure has dealt a severe blow to Iran's economic ties with its largest trading partner.
China remains the only major buyer of sanctioned Iranian crude and was by far Iran's most important commercial partner in 2025.
The disruption has also sharply increased transportation costs. According to the head of logistics at Iran's Trade Promotion Organization, shipping a container from China to Iran now costs $8,000–$9,000, up from $2,500–$3,500before the conflict.
Transporting goods through Central Asian rail corridors has become even more expensive.
Iran hit harder than regional rivals
Although trade between China and other Persian Gulf states also declined after the Strait closure, the contraction was far less severe than in Iran's case.
Chinese customs data show Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates recorded a combined $109 billion in bilateral trade with China during the first half of 2026, a 29% decline from a year earlier.
By contrast, total trade between Iran and China during the same six-month period fell 59%.
Trade between China and Oman proved even more resilient, remaining virtually unchanged at around $16 billion during the first half of the year.
The figures indicate that Iran has borne a disproportionately large share of the commercial costs associated with disrupting one of the world's most important shipping lanes.
Broader trade slowdown
The impact extends well beyond China.
Last year, Iran’s Arab neighbours accounted for roughly 51% of Iran's total non-oil trade. Since March, trade between Iran and all of those countries except Iraq has effectively come to a halt.
Iran itself has stopped publishing monthly foreign trade statistics since the regional war began, leaving customs data from trading partners among the few remaining indicators of the country's external commerce.
Data from other major economies point in the same direction.
According to Eurostat, trade between Iran and the European Union fell by more than half during the first three months of the conflict, dropping below €430 million.
India offered one notable exception. A one-month US sanctions waiver allowed Indian refiners to receive two cargoes of Iranian crude in May, lifting India's imports from Iran by more than 340% to about $950 million during the first five months of the year.
Even so, India's exports to Iran fell 17% to $470 million, reflecting weaker non-oil trade.
Official Turkish data painted a steadier picture. Despite a doubling of Iranian natural gas exports, overall trade between Iran and Turkey remained broadly unchanged at around $1.9 billion during the first half of the year.
The Chinese customs figures, shipping data and trade statistics from Europe suggest that while the Strait of Hormuz crisis has disrupted commerce across the region, Iran has so far paid a markedly higher commercial price than many of the countries it sought to pressure.
