As US talks stall, Iran moderates warn of renewed unrest

As indirect contacts between Tehran and Washington continue and regional actors push to keep negotiations alive, competing signals continue to emerge from Iran's political establishment.

As indirect contacts between Tehran and Washington continue and regional actors push to keep negotiations alive, competing signals continue to emerge from Iran's political establishment.
On Thursday, the Revolutionary Guards said no lasting calm would be achieved in the region unless Israel withdrew from Lebanese territory and halted attacks, while senior adviser Mohsen Rezaei insisted Iran would not give a “green light” to negotiations until all of its demands were met.
Against that backdrop, two political insiders from different camps have issued unusually direct warnings about Iran's domestic vulnerabilities, arguing that economic hardship and the widening gap between the state and society could fuel renewed unrest.
In a June 1 interview with the moderate daily Etemad, prominent centrist politician Hossein Marashi described a deep structural and cultural disconnect between the state and society.
He warned that unless the political system adapts by addressing economic inefficiencies, acknowledging cultural differences and creating channels for dissent, unrest will continue to recur.
The leadership in Tehran, Marashi argued, remains at odds with a large segment of the population over cultural and political issues and should align governance with the expectations of at least 70% of society.
According to him, the divide between state and society has become so entrenched that many Iranians now separate their attachment to the country from their view of the government.
Marashi also said one of the Islamic Republic's fundamental failures has been its inability to build a strong economy and a trusted judiciary. Protests, he argued, should not be viewed as isolated incidents but as repeated expressions of accumulated public frustration.
A similar theme emerged this week in an op-ed by reformist commentator Nasser Zakeri in Sharq newspaper.
Reviewing Iran's recent military and geopolitical challenges, Zakeri contrasted what he described as the resilience of Iran's defense sector with decades of economic underperformance marked by unemployment, chronic inflation and weak productivity.
He argued that policymakers should use the experience of the past year to identify which institutions proved resilient under pressure and which did not.
Zakeri also challenged those who portray revision as a betrayal of the Islamic Republic's core principles, arguing that even policies once considered successful must be reassessed when circumstances change.
Such arguments remain politically sensitive in a system where calls for reform or revision are often portrayed by hardliners as attempts to weaken the ideological foundations of the state.
Although Marashi and Zakeri approached the issue from different angles—one focusing on public dissatisfaction and the other on institutional performance—both arrived at a similar conclusion: military strength and crisis management alone cannot guarantee long-term stability unless the political system addresses deeper economic, social and political grievances.
Late on Thursday, reports emerged that Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi would return to Tehran as part of efforts to keep the Iran-US negotiating track alive.
The diplomatic process remains uncertain. But the warnings from Marashi and Zakeri suggest that, for some voices inside the establishment, the more pressing question may be whether the state can address the domestic challenges that persist regardless of whether negotiations succeed.
Tehran’s unveiling of a towering statue depicting the Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling before pre-Islamic Persian King Shapur I has renewed criticism of the Islamic Republic’s appeal to nationalist sentiment following the June war with Israel.
For over forty years, the theocracy purged ancient Persian history from schoolbooks, replacing it with post-Islamic narratives. But after the 12-day conflict with Israel, officials have turned to the distant pre-Islamic past to rally a divided society.
From murals of ancient kings and soldiers to patriotic songs added to Shi’ite mourning ceremonies performed before Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran now embraces imagery once deemed heretical by its own revolutionary ethos.
'Kneel before Iran' campaign
Tehran’s Revolution (Enghelab) Square was the scene of an unusual spectacle on Friday as officials unveiled a massive bronze statue depicting Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling in submission before Sassanid King Shapur I, commemorating Iran’s victory at the Battle of Edessa (260 AD).
The event was held under the slogan “Kneel before Iran,” part of what authorities describe as a campaign to project “national unity and historical pride” following the June war with Israel.
Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, a staunch ultraconservative, said on X: “Enmity with Great Iran can only end in kneeling before this historic nation.”
Municipal official Davood Goodarzi said the installation would be accompanied by visual displays depicting “other victories of Iranians over foreign aggressors,” including the defeat of British forces by local commander Rais-Ali Delvari, Mirza Kuchak Khan’s resistance against Russian troops, and Surena’s triumph over Rome at the Battle of Carrhae in 53 BCE.
The goal, Goodarzi said, is “strengthening concepts such as national dignity, social unity, and Iranian identity.”
The statue, he said, would remain temporarily at Revolution Square before being moved to a city gateway “where it will stand as the first emblem of Iran before diplomats and foreign visitors.”
Unveiled women were allowed to attend the unveiling ceremony—an uncommon scene at events organized by Tehran’s ultra-hardline municipality.
The turn to the pre-Islamic past
The sharp reversal also recalls remarks once made by Khamenei. In a 2011 speech, he asserted that “all the great military victories of this nation came after Islam,” dismissing pre-Islamic accounts as “things that are not documented.”
In 1987, he had said that prophets triumphed over kings such as Cyrus and that “nothing remains of these monarchs in history but names remembered with derision.”
Nevertheless, pro-government social media accounts have now gone so far as to circulate posters equating Khamenei himself with Shapur, showing him standing with a staff as Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump kneel before him. The caption reads: “You will kneel before Iran.”
'Hypocrisy'
Pro-government figures have hailed the move as a patriotic success. Conservative political reporter Hossein Saremi posted: “Today’s grand Iranian gathering showed that people and the state share one essence: Iran itself. Nothing can take our homeland away.”
Others, however, called the spectacle “hypocrisy.” Journalist Gholamhossein Pashaei wrote on X: “Every year you close Pasargadae to stop people from celebrating Cyrus Day, yet you unveil Shapur’s statue in Enghelab Square with drums and fireworks during Fatimiyya (mourning period)!”
Dissident commentator Hamid Asafi called the ceremony “a perfect snapshot of the Islamic Republic’s contradictions.”
On Telegram he wrote: “A week ago they closed Cyrus’s tomb out of fear of the crowds, and now they glorify Shapur in the same breath. The Islamic Republic fears living history but poses for selfies with its corpse.”
He added: “They know people no longer respond to rosaries and sermons. That’s why they’ve brought history back to the stage—in a controlled costume. If they can’t erase the past, they’ll try to own it.”
The irony deepened as UNESCO formally recognized Cyrus’s Charter as one of the earliest human-rights documents.
President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X: “Iran, the cradle of dialogue, justice, and coexistence, can still inspire peace today.”
Users swiftly replied, questioning how such pride could coexist with a government that blocks access to Cyrus’s tomb each year to those wishing to visit it on his birthday.