They portray control over Hormuz—much like uranium enrichment—as a “red line” that Iranian negotiators must not compromise in any future talks.
Amir-Hossein Sabeti, a member of parliament, recently declared that Iran could soon gain “a third source of income called the Strait of Hormuz.”
Mehdi Mohammadi, a strategic analyst and adviser to the parliament speaker, went further, claiming Iran could earn as much as $800 billion annually from the waterway.
“We have only just discovered this treasure,” he wrote.
Energy analyst Ehsan Hosseini said Iran increasingly sees the strait as its main deterrent—likening it to an “atomic bomb”—and is unwilling to trade this existing leverage for uncertain promises of sanctions relief.
Yet experts and critics say the idea of a “Hormuz toll” is economically unrealistic, legally problematic and potentially damaging to Iran’s long-term interests.
“Some want to take us back, to turn the Strait of Hormuz into a bargaining chip and give it away just to have sanctions lifted,” international affairs expert and university professor Naser Torabi said. “This is a disaster. This means defeat,” he added.
Economic commentator Abdollah Babakhani also warned against inflated expectations.
“Experts have a responsibility to stand against exaggerated narratives—such as claims of $50 to $60 billion in revenue from the Strait of Hormuz—so that unrealistic expectations do not form or persist in society,” he wrote on X.
The United States is enforcing a maritime blockade on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports, part of a broader effort to pressure Tehran after talks failed to produce a breakthrough.
Shipping data from the firm Kpler shows a sharp drop in traffic through the strait, with only six vessels transiting on April 13 compared with 14 the previous day.
Within Iran, some hardliners initially dismissed the blockade as a bluff. Iran’s top joint military command warned that its armed forces could move to prevent the continuation of trade flows across regional waters if the blockade persists.
Yet more than two days into the blockade, Tehran has yet to take direct military action, as both sides explore diplomatic routes to ending the war.
President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the Strait of Hormuz would soon be open again to maritime traffic, even as US forces continue enforcing the blockade around Iranian ports.
Some moderates and experts in Tehran have warned that aggressively leveraging the strait could ultimately weaken Iran’s position, especially given that regional producers have invested in pipelines and export routes designed to bypass Hormuz.
Ebrahim Gholamzadeh-Zanganeh, head of the Iran-Kuwait Chamber of Commerce, argued that even if a toll were possible, any financial benefit would pale against the opportunity cost of Iran’s isolation.
“The reality is that our losses from sanctions have been—and continue to be—many times these figures each year,” he said.
