Republican lawmaker warns of ‘endless war’ with Iran, cites lack of exit strategy

For more than a decade, Tehran has invested heavily in the Jask oil terminal, a project designed to shift part of its crude exports to the Gulf of Oman and create an alternative export route outside the Persian Gulf in times of crisis. Yet the data suggests the terminal has so far played only a marginal role in Iran’s export system.

According to Kpler data, Iran loaded an average of about 1.84 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude during the first 25 days of March. The contribution of the Jask terminal remained minimal.

Average loadings from Jask stood at roughly 81,000 bpd during this period—less than 5% of Iran’s total crude exports.

Historical patterns suggest this limitation may be structural. Iran first initiated exports from Jask in October 2024 amid heightened military tensions with Israel. Even then, volumes remained modest at around 77,000 bpd. In March 2025, exports from the terminal averaged roughly 54,000 bpd.

This is despite the fact that Jask is connected to Iran’s main oil-producing regions through a pipeline stretching nearly 1,000 kilometers, an infrastructure investment intended to enable significant export capacity outside the Persian Gulf.

In practice, Iran’s dependence on Kharg Island remains overwhelming.

Kpler data indicates that more than 84% of Iran’s oil exports in March were loaded from Kharg, while Jask accounted for just 4.4%. Another roughly 10% originated from the Soroush and South Pars terminals in the Persian Gulf.

Such concentration creates a clear strategic vulnerability: any disruption at Kharg could severely cripple Iran’s oil exports.

The question has gained renewed relevance as the war between Iran and the United States and Israel has intensified. The Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly a fifth of global oil trade passes—has become a central point of tension, with Tehran periodically restricting maritime traffic.

At the same time, reports have emerged of expanding US military operations in the region, including contingency planning involving strategic islands near the Strait of Hormuz that could be used to control access to the waterway.

In such a scenario, Iran’s continued reliance on export infrastructure concentrated around Kharg would leave its oil trade exposed to disruption.

Overall, the export data underscores a fundamental reality: despite years of investment, Iran has not succeeded in meaningfully reducing its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz—or, more critically, on the Kharg export hub.

In a volatile regional environment, that dependence represents a significant structural weakness.

The United Arab Emirates’ air defense systems intercepted 15 ballistic missiles and 11 drones launched from Iran on Thursday, the UAE Ministry of Defense said, as part of an ongoing wave of attacks.

"Since the start of the Iranian assaults, UAE air defenses have engaged 372 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles and 1,826 drones," UAE defense ministry posted on X.

"The attacks have killed two UAE service members and a Moroccan civilian contractor, along with eight foreign nationals from Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Palestine and India," the post said. "Another 169 people were injured, ranging from minor to severe, including nationals from more than 25 countries."

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul on Thursday expressed full solidarity with Saudi Arabia after meeting counterpart Faisal bin Farhan, condemning the Iranian ongoing indiscriminate attacks.

“We agree we must prevent further escalation. Regional stability must not be jeopardized,” Germany foreign ministry posted on X.

US House Speaker Mike Johnson said on Thursday Washington hopes to resolve the conflict with Iran without further military action, adding that pressure from US troop deployments could influence Tehran’s leadership.

Speaking to Fox News, Johnson said Iranian leaders appeared to have taken note of President Donald Trump’s “resolve” and the US military buildup in the region.

"We have a build up of troops there, because we're trying to point that out to them, and I think it'll have the desired effect. It should not be necessary. I hope that it's not. I hope this resolves soon," Johnson said.

"That the desire of Congress, again, so we don't have to take further action. We're still in the the 60 day mark of this operation, the president's well within his legal authority to do this. And he did it as a defensive strike because of an eminent threat, and that's what we had to do," he added.

Former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant on Thursday called for the United States and Israel to seize Kharg Island, saying it would deal a decisive blow to Iran’s economy.

In a post on Substack, Gallant said Kharg Island serves as Iran’s primary oil export terminal, handling the vast majority of its crude shipments, and argued that capturing it would cripple the country’s economy and force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

“As long as Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, the regime retains a veto over the global economy. As long as the world’s energy supply remains hostage to Iranian weapons deployed along a hundred miles of coastline, the destruction of nuclear and missile sites will be overshadowed by an economic crisis that erodes the will to finish the job,” Gallant said.

“Kharg Island is the key that resolves this equation. It accelerates the economic and political pressure that may finally produce the internal change the Iranian people have sought for decades. And it sends a message air strikes alone cannot deliver: The U.S. is committed to a decisive outcome, and it is not going home without one,” he added.