Experts challenge claim behind Kent's resignation: Was Iran threat imminent?

Iran confirmed on Tuesday that Larijani—Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and one of the regime’s central security coordinators— was killed in a morning strike on Tehran.

The strike inevitably recalls the killing of Qassem Soleimani in 2020: another precise removal of a figure who linked diplomacy, intelligence and military power.

Soleimani’s death did more than eliminate a commander. It weakened the regime’s ability to calibrate risk. Radical in purpose, cautious in execution, he pushed proxies forward without inviting existential retaliation.

His absence left a gap no successor fully filled. Coordination frayed, misjudgments mounted and responses grew less predictable. The network endured, but its timing became erratic and its restraint thinner.

Larijani’s role must be understood against that backdrop.

According to a source cited by Christiane Amanpour, Larijani had, as recently as September 2025, been viewed in some Western and Israeli assessments as a potentially acceptable transitional figure before becoming a target by early February 2026.

The account attributes the shift to his role in pressing for domestic crackdowns, adopting a more confrontational posture toward the United States and Israel and assuming a central role in shaping IRGC military operations.

The claims remain unverified but highlight how Larijani straddled internal consolidation and external escalation at a moment of acute pressure.

His career began during the Iran-Iraq War, where he rose within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to brigadier general, later serving as Speaker of Parliament (2008–2020), where he advanced a hard-line agenda aligned with the consolidation of power in the Office of the Supreme Leader.

In the years that followed, he moved from battlefield to bureaucracy, helping consolidate the regime’s coercive and ideological infrastructure.

As head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (1994–2004), Larijani oversaw more than a media organization. The state broadcaster worked closely with the intelligence services and the IRGC, shaping narratives that reinforced loyalty and narrowed the space for dissent.

The 1996 Hoviyyat (Identity) series publicly branded intellectuals and professionals as traitors, airing coerced confessions and drawing sharp limits around permissible thought. At the same time, official memory of the Iran-Iraq War was recast into doctrine: martyrdom elevated, endurance framed as victory.

Over time, this messaging helped consolidate a narrower but more disciplined base embedded across Basij and IRGC networks. Its purpose was not persuasion but enforcement: to secure the regime against a broader, often unwilling society.

That framework endured. It underpinned repression during the 2009 Green Movement, resurfaced during the Woman, Life, Freedom protests in 2022 and shaped the violence of January 2026.

Beyond Iran, the same logic informed Hezbollah’s campaign in Syria, Hamas operations culminating in October 7 and the IRGC’s maritime doctrine of asymmetric pressure.

Despite tensions within the political elite, Larijani remained firmly inside the core leadership. Loyal and disciplined, he embodied continuity across institutions.

Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the February 28 strike that opened the current phase of war, Larijani’s experience and connections positioned him as a potential stabilizing figure.

His 2025 reappointment as Iran’s security chief reinforced that role. From there he coordinated nuclear policy, crisis management and relations among the regime’s core institutions.

Larijani’s removal would introduce immediate disruption: friction in command and pressure for retaliation. The deeper consequence may be fragmentation.

The Islamic Republic now operates less as a unified state than as a dispersed system under sustained pressure from Israel and the United States. Authority increasingly runs through provincial clerical networks, IRGC commanders and Basij structures. Resources are mobilized locally, repression enforced locally and survival managed locally.

Larijani belonged to the shrinking circle still capable of linking these fragments to a central command. His loss risks accelerating the incoherence the system is already struggling to contain.

Soleimani’s precedent is instructive: decapitation weakens coordination and invites miscalculation, even as the structure endures.

Missile infrastructure remains dispersed across hardened and subterranean sites. Fast naval craft and unmanned vessels continue to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Proxy militias operate through channels designed to outlast leadership losses.

What appears as resilience may instead reflect dispersal without coordination — a system that survives but no longer acts as one.

Larijani’s killing tests not only the state’s durability but its capacity to function as a coherent force under sustained pressure. The war may not bring immediate collapse. But without figures such as Soleimani and Larijani, adaptation may hasten, rather than forestall, its demise.

The festival has long been a source of friction between the public and the state, but this year officials appear particularly concerned amid U.S.-Israeli strikes and fresh calls for mass participation, including appeals this week from exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi.

Judicial and security bodies have sent text messages directly to citizens. One such message, reportedly from a provincial justice department, warned that any “noise, commotion or unconventional behaviour” that disrupts public order could result in punishments including imprisonment and flogging.

On Tuesday, chief justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei warned dissenters and repeated orders to confiscate the assets of those deemed “collaborators with the enemy,” again raising the possibility of capital punishment.

“We warn all elements who intend to threaten public security that if they act, they will face firm legal action, and there will be no leniency,” he said.

The Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) spokesman, Brigadier General Ali-Mohammad Naeini, used even sharper language, describing the day as a “Charshanbeh of burning enemies.”

He vowed that attacks on Israel and U.S. bases in the region would intensify while “symbols of monarchists, separatist terrorists and mercenaries inside the country” would be set ablaze.

Ahmad-Reza Radan, Iran’s police commander, appeared Monday at a pro-establishment gathering in Tehran and urged supporters “not to leave the arena” to the opposition, calling the night “a decisive night” for the state.

Marked by bonfires, fireworks and rituals rooted in pre-Islamic traditions, Charshanbeh Suri has frequently drawn official scrutiny since the 1979 revolution, with clerical leaders often dismissing it as incompatible with religious norms.

Despite repeated enforcement efforts involving police, paramilitary Basij forces and vigilante groups, the celebration has persisted.

Restrictions have also altered how the festival is observed: traditional practices such as jumping over small fires and spoon-banging at doors have, over time, given way in many areas to the use of homemade explosives, often resulting in injuries and property damage.

In recent years — especially following the 2022–23 “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests — the festival has taken on a more overtly political dimension, with young people chanting slogans and at times confronting security forces with firecrackers and improvised devices.

The wave of warnings followed messages by Iran’s exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi in recent days addressed to Iranians and the “international community and friends of Iran.”

He urged citizens to celebrate Charshanbeh Suri in “alleys and neighborhoods across the country” and called on global observers to keep their eyes on Iran and “not to allow the regime to use violence against the people determined to celebrate life, light and hope in the face of darkness.”

In a separate message, he directly urged Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu to closely monitor developments on the night of the festival.

In a further video message posted Tuesday, he urged Iranians to avoid confrontation with government forces while warning security personnel to leave people in peace.

“These malevolent agents intend to drag your festival of light, purity and life into darkness, filth and death. Do not give them this opportunity,” he said.

Online reactions suggest the calls for participation are resonating with some younger Iranians, who frame the festival as both a national tradition and a symbol of resistance.

One user wrote that holding Charshanbeh Suri this year would mean “turning a national ritual into a symbol of standing against the regime and honoring those who gave their lives for the homeland.”

Another post declared: “Tomorrow night we will witness the largest Charshanbeh Suri in Iran’s history. I dare you to touch even a hair on the heads of our compatriots.”

Few Americans have been more entangled with the secretive world of Iran’s intelligence operations than the Levinson family.

Robert Levinson, a 22‑year FBI veteran who spent his career dismantling criminal networks and pursuing corrupt regimes, vanished in March 2007 after traveling to Kish Island for what was later revealed to be an unsanctioned CIA mission.

He had gone to meet a source as part of an investigation into corruption and money laundering when Iranian intelligence detained him.

Washington later concluded that Levinson likely died in Iranian custody, though his remains were never recovered. In 2020, the US Treasury Department sanctioned Iranian officials Mohammad Baseri and Ahmad Khazai for their roles in his disappearance.

Baseri’s name resurfaced this week when Iranian state media confirmed he was killed in the joint US‑Israeli airstrikes on Tehran that also hit Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) sites and intelligence facilities.

Learning of Baseri’s death, Levinson said, felt like a long‑overdue turning point, matched in significance only by the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on first day of war.

“Khamenei had the power to free my dad at any point and chose not to. He knew what was happening and did nothing, so for our family, it’s been an emotional moment — but not one of grief.”

His father, he said, “was a patriotic American who always wanted to make sure justice was served — not just in the United States, but around the world.”

The recent strikes, he believes, “may finally hold some of those responsible accountable.”

Levinson has spent nearly twenty years seeking answers and helping other families do the same. He was instrumental in advancing the Robert Levinson Hostage Recovery and Hostage‑Taking Accountability Act, which strengthened US tools for responding to hostage situations abroad.

From those efforts, he’s come to see patterns in how authoritarian states operate — and how they collapse.

“There are people who know exactly what happened to my dad,” he said. As pressure mounts on the regime, “maybe some will defect or reveal the truth.

Iran’s armed forces are reportedly under heavy strain as the war intensifies.

"There’s still a 25 multimillion‑dollar US reward for information about his case.” The strikes, he said, could finally create the conditions where long‑hidden information emerges.

Although the family continues to grieve, Levinson said they also feel a renewed sense of purpose.

“Justice is coming,” he said. “We’re not going to forget. Those involved still have the chance to do the right thing.”

Levinson drew a stark contrast between Iran’s leaders and its citizens, saying that ordinary Iranians “are living under unimaginable tyranny” yet continue to fight bravely for their rights. Many, he said, “want freedom — and they look to America with hope.”

The Levinson family’s fight has transformed from a personal search for truth into a symbol of broader resistance against impunity.

“We’ve worked to protect his legacy and make sure what happened to him never happens to another American family,” Daniel said.

“Now, with the regime shaken and the world watching, maybe it’s finally time for justice — and for freedom for the Iranian people.”

After two weeks of upheaval — including the death of a supreme leader, the appointment of a successor and a war that has touched much of the country — Tehran’s newspapers are increasingly focused on the daily struggle of Iranians trying to make ends meet under fire.

Across the press, economic anxiety is now front and center.

The economic daily Donya-ye Eghtesad warned of a “red alert for the economic situation,” while Jomhouri Eslami struck a more pragmatic tone with the headline: “The need to be honest with the people in an emergency situation,” urging officials to “separate people’s livelihoods from politics.”

Coverage of the Strait of Hormuz also featured prominently on Monday’s front pages. The hardline Kayhan, whose editor is appointed by the Office of the Supreme Leader, vowed that “Iran’s response will make the enemies regret their actions in this war of wills.”

Ettela’at, another newspaper linked to that office, called on the government to “prevent looming famine and scarcity of goods,” taking a markedly different line from Kayhan’s “jihad economy” — a concept long promoted by the late leader Ali Khamenei.

It even suggested rationing essential goods during the Nowruz holidays, which typically last up to two weeks.

Economists quoted in several papers attributed part of the market turmoil to conflicting political signals and the Central Bank’s efforts to stabilize prices in the final days of the year.

Two key articles published Sunday, in Ettela’at and Jomhouri Eslami, captured the broader mood.

Ettela’at argued for “the priority of bread and ethics over political disputes,” criticizing political factions for turning people’s livelihoods into a battleground even during wartime. It urged officials and media to end factional infighting and focus on stabilizing prices to prevent further erosion of social trust.

Jomhouri Eslami, for its part, advised officials to remove advisers who mislead them and distract from the public’s real problems.

Three broad camps emerged in the press over the weekend.

Hardline outlets like Kayhan blamed the crisis on the war and called for resistance. Reformist papers including Etemad and Sharq described a deadlock and urged major change, including national reconciliation.

More centrist titles such as Ettela’at and Jomhouri Eslami framed the moment as a test of governance, calling for transparency, responsiveness and effective market control.

Despite their differences, nearly all newspapers agree on one point: the coming Iranian year, beginning March 20, is likely to be decisive for the country’s economy, its leadership and its social stability.

Prewar intelligence did not say retaliation was certain, but it was “on the list of potential outcomes,” one source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Two additional sources said Trump was also warned Iran might attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil transit route.

Trump said twice on Monday that Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait had been unexpected.

“They weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East,” he said at a White House event. “Nobody expected that. We were shocked.”

The remarks came as the Pentagon sought to underscore the scale of the campaign. US Central Command said it had hit more than 7,000 targets across Iran by the end of Monday, including missile sites, naval assets and command facilities.

Israel’s military issued similarly sweeping claims, asserting in a post on its Persian X account that it had inflicted heavy losses on Iranian forces and leadership and caused declining morale — claims that could not be independently verified.

Yet a report by The Washington Post the same day cited US intelligence assessments suggesting the campaign has not destabilized Iran’s political system and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is consolidating power, with no signs of major defections or internal fractures.

Trump defended the decision to join Israel in launching airstrikes on February 28, arguing the economic fallout was justified. He called the war’s impact on markets “a very small price to pay,” adding: “You want to see the stock market go down? Start letting them hit you with nukes.”

Major stock indexes have fallen since the campaign began, while oil prices surged as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply. Markets recovered somewhat Monday as oil prices eased.

Trump also argued the war was necessary to prevent a wider conflict, saying that “had we not done this, you would have had a nuclear war that would have evolved into World War III.”