Economics may decide outcome of Iran-US standoff

What remains unclear is how that pressure will play out. Will rising fuel prices and market instability in the United States push President Donald Trump toward compromise, or will Iran’s mounting economic strain force Tehran to accept US demands?

"Iran's economy is a disaster. So we'll see how long they hold out," Trump told reporters on Thursday.

In both Iran and the US, political messaging already points toward eventual claims of victory. For ordinary Iranians, however, the only positive outcome is one where their livelihood improves.

Ali Asghar Zargar, a political science professor in Tehran, describes the current moment as “as dangerous as the war itself.” Speaking to the reform-leaning Fararu website, he warned that “when diplomacy collapses, the likelihood of military action increases.”

Still, he noted that despite the lack of progress, “the path to dialogue has not been completely closed.”

Zargar characterized the current state of half-active diplomacy as a safety valve slowing the slide toward open conflict. But he cautioned that “an error on either side can trigger a clash at any moment,” pointing to the volatility of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

The two-week ceasefire between Tehran and Washington expired last week, with no clear indication that talks will resume soon.

Iranian diplomatic activity, particularly Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s recent visits to Pakistan, Oman and Russia, has fueled speculation about both renewed negotiations and the possibility of further escalation.

Some Iranian analysts believe another round of US and Israeli strikes cannot be ruled out.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Thursday that Iran has suffered “very severe blows” over the past year and warned that further action may be needed “to ensure the achievement of our goals.”

Also on Thursday, Iran’s parliament speaker and lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran could use its position over the Strait of Hormuz to reshape regional dynamics and reduce US influence.

“Iran, by exercising control over the Strait of Hormuz, will ensure that it and its neighbors enjoy the precious blessing of a future free from the presence and interference of America,” he wrote on X.

Abbas Abdi, a reformist commentator who had largely avoided domestic political writing in recent months, returned this week with a stark assessment: “We are in an exceptional situation where everything is about survival.”

He argued that Iran needs a new framework that prioritizes ending the war above all else.

The economic cost of the standoff is already significant on both sides. Opposition to the war and its financial consequences has grown in the United States, while Trump has claimed Iran is “losing $500 million a day” under the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

As Tehran and Washington test each other’s resilience, distrust continues to deepen. A Fararu analysis described the situation as one of “active suspension”: relations are neither moving toward full confrontation nor showing any clear path to agreement.

For now, both sides appear to be probing how much pressure the other can endure without breaking. But the longer that calculation continues, the greater the risk that economic strain—and a single misstep—could tip the balance toward escalation rather than compromise.