What Larijani’s killing means for Iran’s power structure

The festival has long been a source of friction between the public and the state, but this year officials appear particularly concerned amid U.S.-Israeli strikes and fresh calls for mass participation, including appeals this week from exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi.

Judicial and security bodies have sent text messages directly to citizens. One such message, reportedly from a provincial justice department, warned that any “noise, commotion or unconventional behaviour” that disrupts public order could result in punishments including imprisonment and flogging.

On Tuesday, chief justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei warned dissenters and repeated orders to confiscate the assets of those deemed “collaborators with the enemy,” again raising the possibility of capital punishment.

“We warn all elements who intend to threaten public security that if they act, they will face firm legal action, and there will be no leniency,” he said.

The Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) spokesman, Brigadier General Ali-Mohammad Naeini, used even sharper language, describing the day as a “Charshanbeh of burning enemies.”

He vowed that attacks on Israel and U.S. bases in the region would intensify while “symbols of monarchists, separatist terrorists and mercenaries inside the country” would be set ablaze.

Ahmad-Reza Radan, Iran’s police commander, appeared Monday at a pro-establishment gathering in Tehran and urged supporters “not to leave the arena” to the opposition, calling the night “a decisive night” for the state.

Marked by bonfires, fireworks and rituals rooted in pre-Islamic traditions, Charshanbeh Suri has frequently drawn official scrutiny since the 1979 revolution, with clerical leaders often dismissing it as incompatible with religious norms.

Despite repeated enforcement efforts involving police, paramilitary Basij forces and vigilante groups, the celebration has persisted.

Restrictions have also altered how the festival is observed: traditional practices such as jumping over small fires and spoon-banging at doors have, over time, given way in many areas to the use of homemade explosives, often resulting in injuries and property damage.

In recent years — especially following the 2022–23 “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests — the festival has taken on a more overtly political dimension, with young people chanting slogans and at times confronting security forces with firecrackers and improvised devices.

The wave of warnings followed messages by Iran’s exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi in recent days addressed to Iranians and the “international community and friends of Iran.”

He urged citizens to celebrate Charshanbeh Suri in “alleys and neighborhoods across the country” and called on global observers to keep their eyes on Iran and “not to allow the regime to use violence against the people determined to celebrate life, light and hope in the face of darkness.”

In a separate message, he directly urged Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu to closely monitor developments on the night of the festival.

In a further video message posted Tuesday, he urged Iranians to avoid confrontation with government forces while warning security personnel to leave people in peace.

“These malevolent agents intend to drag your festival of light, purity and life into darkness, filth and death. Do not give them this opportunity,” he said.

Online reactions suggest the calls for participation are resonating with some younger Iranians, who frame the festival as both a national tradition and a symbol of resistance.

One user wrote that holding Charshanbeh Suri this year would mean “turning a national ritual into a symbol of standing against the regime and honoring those who gave their lives for the homeland.”

Another post declared: “Tomorrow night we will witness the largest Charshanbeh Suri in Iran’s history. I dare you to touch even a hair on the heads of our compatriots.”

Iranian authorities have issued stark warnings ahead of Chaharshanbeh Suri as officials point to what they describe as wartime conditions and the risk of unrest.

Police commander Ahmadreza Radan said this year’s celebrations come under “different circumstances,” adding that the country is effectively in a state of war and that emergency and medical services are on high alert.

He warned that adversaries could exploit the night’s gatherings, saying there is a possibility that “agents” could blend into crowds celebrating the festival and trigger incidents or casualties to inflame the situation.

In a separate notice, the Intelligence Ministry urged citizens to remain vigilant, claiming that “a small number of Israeli soldiers” may attempt sabotage during the festivities and calling on people to report suspicious activity.

The messaging has been reinforced by a broader security buildup. Reports indicate increased coordination among police, intelligence, and judicial bodies, alongside threats of decisive action against what officials describe as dangerous behavior.

In some areas, people have been encouraged to hold events in mosques and controlled spaces rather than in the streets.

Contest over public space, culture and control

Yet Chaharshanbeh Suri has rarely stayed contained.

Celebrated on the eve of the last Wednesday before Nowruz, the festival – marked by bonfires, fireworks, and the ritual of jumping over flames – predates Islam and has endured for centuries. In recent years, it has taken on an added meaning, evolving into one of the few nights when large numbers of people gather spontaneously in public spaces.

That scale has made it difficult to control. It has also turned the festival into a recurring flashpoint.

Last year, crowds across multiple cities poured into the streets despite heavy security presence. Clashes broke out in several areas, leaving at least 19 dead and thousands injured. Videos showed bonfires lighting up neighborhoods as music, chanting, and fireworks filled the air.

In earlier years, the night has gone further, with young people using firecrackers and homemade devices to confront security forces, chanting slogans, and in some cases burning photos of late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

The pattern has become familiar: warnings ahead of the night, followed by mass turnout, and then confrontation.

This year, however, the backdrop is markedly different.

Iran is in the midst of an escalating conflict, with the United States and Israel striking targets linked to military and security structures. A strike announced on Tuesday killed the IRGC Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani, a key figure in crowd control and repression.

Against that backdrop, officials have framed the festival not only as a safety concern but as a potential security threat.

‘A symbol of resilience’

Exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi, in an interview with Iran International earlier this week, said the festival carries a deeper meaning beyond tradition.

“When we celebrate Chaharshanbeh Suri today, it is not only to preserve our culture,” he said. “It is a powerful message to those who have always tried to erase our identity… an opportunity to show that we exist – to ourselves and to the world.”

He also pointed to a broader generational shift, saying: “Today everyone has reached the conclusion that a secular system is needed… a system built on ideology has, from the beginning, imposed discrimination on society.”

At the same time, he framed the preservation of cultural traditions as central to Iran’s resilience, adding that the country has endured “because of the courage of its people and the preservation of Iranian culture.”

His call to mark the night has been echoed among parts of the diaspora, including appeals for gatherings outside Iranian embassies, while inside the country officials have warned that participation could carry consequences.

The tension between these two narratives – celebration and control – is not new.

As analyst Morad Vaisi has noted, the confrontation over festivals like Nowruz and Chaharshanbeh Suri reflects a deeper struggle.

These traditions, he wrote, have endured not because of official backing, but because of people’s resistance to cultural pressure, becoming a symbol of identity and continuity beyond political systems.

Each year that people gather despite restrictions, the act itself sends a message that Iran’s cultural life extends beyond those in power.

That dynamic is expected to be on full display again tonight.

But this year, the familiar sounds of celebration will unfold alongside something heavier: a country under bombardment, a heightened security presence, and warnings that frame even small gatherings as a potential threat.

In past years, Chaharshanbeh Suri has often blurred the line between festivity and confrontation.

As darkness falls, that line may once again be tested – raising expectations of large turnouts, and concern that the night could end, as it has before, with violence and more lives lost.

After two weeks of upheaval — including the death of a supreme leader, the appointment of a successor and a war that has touched much of the country — Tehran’s newspapers are increasingly focused on the daily struggle of Iranians trying to make ends meet under fire.

Across the press, economic anxiety is now front and center.

The economic daily Donya-ye Eghtesad warned of a “red alert for the economic situation,” while Jomhouri Eslami struck a more pragmatic tone with the headline: “The need to be honest with the people in an emergency situation,” urging officials to “separate people’s livelihoods from politics.”

Coverage of the Strait of Hormuz also featured prominently on Monday’s front pages. The hardline Kayhan, whose editor is appointed by the Office of the Supreme Leader, vowed that “Iran’s response will make the enemies regret their actions in this war of wills.”

Ettela’at, another newspaper linked to that office, called on the government to “prevent looming famine and scarcity of goods,” taking a markedly different line from Kayhan’s “jihad economy” — a concept long promoted by the late leader Ali Khamenei.

It even suggested rationing essential goods during the Nowruz holidays, which typically last up to two weeks.

Economists quoted in several papers attributed part of the market turmoil to conflicting political signals and the Central Bank’s efforts to stabilize prices in the final days of the year.

Two key articles published Sunday, in Ettela’at and Jomhouri Eslami, captured the broader mood.

Ettela’at argued for “the priority of bread and ethics over political disputes,” criticizing political factions for turning people’s livelihoods into a battleground even during wartime. It urged officials and media to end factional infighting and focus on stabilizing prices to prevent further erosion of social trust.

Jomhouri Eslami, for its part, advised officials to remove advisers who mislead them and distract from the public’s real problems.

Three broad camps emerged in the press over the weekend.

Hardline outlets like Kayhan blamed the crisis on the war and called for resistance. Reformist papers including Etemad and Sharq described a deadlock and urged major change, including national reconciliation.

More centrist titles such as Ettela’at and Jomhouri Eslami framed the moment as a test of governance, calling for transparency, responsiveness and effective market control.

Despite their differences, nearly all newspapers agree on one point: the coming Iranian year, beginning March 20, is likely to be decisive for the country’s economy, its leadership and its social stability.

Prewar intelligence did not say retaliation was certain, but it was “on the list of potential outcomes,” one source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Two additional sources said Trump was also warned Iran might attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil transit route.

Trump said twice on Monday that Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait had been unexpected.

“They weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East,” he said at a White House event. “Nobody expected that. We were shocked.”

The remarks came as the Pentagon sought to underscore the scale of the campaign. US Central Command said it had hit more than 7,000 targets across Iran by the end of Monday, including missile sites, naval assets and command facilities.

Israel’s military issued similarly sweeping claims, asserting in a post on its Persian X account that it had inflicted heavy losses on Iranian forces and leadership and caused declining morale — claims that could not be independently verified.

Yet a report by The Washington Post the same day cited US intelligence assessments suggesting the campaign has not destabilized Iran’s political system and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is consolidating power, with no signs of major defections or internal fractures.

Trump defended the decision to join Israel in launching airstrikes on February 28, arguing the economic fallout was justified. He called the war’s impact on markets “a very small price to pay,” adding: “You want to see the stock market go down? Start letting them hit you with nukes.”

Major stock indexes have fallen since the campaign began, while oil prices surged as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply. Markets recovered somewhat Monday as oil prices eased.

Trump also argued the war was necessary to prevent a wider conflict, saying that “had we not done this, you would have had a nuclear war that would have evolved into World War III.”

Seventeen days after the outbreak of war, connectivity in the country has fallen to about one percent of normal levels, leaving most people unable to reach the global internet.

Some users initially managed limited access using specialized VPN configurations, but many say those options have largely stopped working since Sunday.

Asked in a CBS interview why he was able to conduct a Zoom call while ordinary citizens could not access the internet, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he had access because he is “the voice of Iranians” and must defend their rights.

The comment drew criticism from Iranians still able to briefly connect.

“People of Iran are not voiceless themselves, and this man is not their voice,” one user wrote. “Open the internet so you can hear the real voice of the people from inside the country.”

‘No picture, no voice’

Even among the few who can still connect, the internet is barely usable. Users say images and videos on social media often fail to load, and in many cases, core features of platforms have stopped functioning.

“Direct messages practically don’t open, and mentions disappear quickly if I try to answer them,” one user said. “Videos and voice messages are basically inaccessible because they consume too much data.”

Another described the experience in stark terms: “The internet feels more like a dying breath than a means of communication these days,” adding that data-limited connections have become extremely slow and prices have sharply increased.

The internet monitoring group NetBlocks said Monday that disruptions to telecommunications infrastructure were further reducing VPN availability and sending some whitelisted users and services offline, it said.

The restrictions appear to be affecting domestic networks as well. Some users say even Iranian websites are difficult to access, while customers of certain banks have temporarily lost access to their accounts.

Reports of disruptions have also surfaced in mobile banking apps, payment cards and Iranian messaging platforms such as Bale, suggesting that parts of Iran’s internal network are also experiencing instability.

Experts say the cause of the broader disruptions remains unclear.

Starlink crackdown

At the same time, warnings have spread widely online urging owners of Starlink satellite internet devices to turn them off.

According to posts circulating on social media, Iranian security forces may be actively searching for Starlink kits and detaining users, with some claims of arrests in cities including Tehran and Kermanshah.

The warnings say patrol vehicles equipped with signal scanners are being used to detect radio emissions from Starlink equipment and pinpoint their location.

A Starlink user told Iran International he has taken multiple precautions to avoid detection but said the risk remains constant.

“I’m afraid all the time that a neighbor might report it,” he said. “They might accuse Starlink users of espionage and sentence them to heavy punishment as a warning to others.”

He added that the restrictions have forced ordinary users to learn complex technical workarounds simply to stay connected.

Not everyone believes the warnings about Starlink detection are accurate.

Some users say the reports may be part of a psychological campaign to frighten people into turning off their devices, noting that locating satellite terminals at scale would require capabilities authorities may not widely possess.

But amid the uncertainty, many say they are preparing for the possibility that their last remaining connection to the outside world could disappear entirely.