When Mojtaba Khamenei was officially announced as Iran's new supreme leader on March 8, the moment that followed was unusual.
There was no televised address to the nation. No appearance before officials or supporters. Instead, a message attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei was read aloud.
Five days after being declared Iran’s new supreme leader, Khamenei still has not appeared publicly or delivered a video message — an absence that has fueled speculation about his condition and about who is actually exercising power inside the Islamic Republic.
But for some analysts, the mystery surrounding Mojtaba Khamenei is less important than what it reveals about how the Iranian system actually functions.
“I suppose we can say Mojtaba Khamenei has become something like Schrödinger’s cat,” historian Dr. Shahram Kholdi said during a panel discussion on Eye for Iran, suggesting the new leader appears simultaneously present and absent.
The lack of any public appearance has triggered a range of theories — that he may be injured, that he is being kept hidden for security reasons, or that others are effectively running the system in his name.
Yet regardless of which theory proves correct, analysts say the moment highlights a deeper shift: power inside Iran increasingly appears to rest with the security apparatus.
“This is a textbook case of the tail wagging the dog,” Kholdi said. “The IRGC used to be the tail. Now it’s the one wagging the dog.”
For decades the Islamic Republic has functioned through overlapping networks of clerical authority, political institutions and security forces. But Iranian political analyst Shayan Samii says the balance within that system has steadily shifted toward the Revolutionary Guards.
“In reality, the IRGC is running the show,” Samii said. “These figures who appear in front of the cameras are often the face presented to the public, but the real decisions are made within the security apparatus.”
Samii argues that Mojtaba Khamenei himself has long been closely tied to that structure, acting as a conduit between the office of the supreme leader and the Revolutionary Guards. His sudden elevation to Iran’s highest position — combined with his continued absence from public view — has only made that power dynamic more visible.
“If you are elevated to the highest position in the land, normally you would appear on television,” Samii said. “You would address the nation. The fact that we have not seen that raises serious questions.”
At the same time, developments on the ground may be testing the very institutions that sustain the regime.
Phase Two of the war
Israeli strikes have targeted security checkpoints in Tehran linked to the Basij militia — the paramilitary force responsible for suppressing protests and maintaining internal control.
For former US national security official John Hannah, that shift could prove significant.
“The question is whether this begins to catalyze fractures within the security services,” Hannah said in an interview on Eye for Iran. “Will Basij members begin not showing up to their posts? Will the regime manage to maintain cohesion?”
For authoritarian systems, he noted, the loyalty of the security forces is often decisive.
“One of the crucial elements in bringing down a regime like this is fractures among the people who hold the guns,” Hannah said.
Still, Hannah cautioned that predicting the outcome remains difficult. Authoritarian regimes can appear stable for years before suddenly unraveling.
“It happens slowly, slowly — and then suddenly,” he said.
Israeli analyst Avi Melamed argues that what is unfolding inside Iran may ultimately represent a broader restructuring of power rather than an immediate collapse.
“What we are seeing,” he said, “is a reconfiguration of power.”
That reconfiguration, analysts say, could reshape not only Iran’s internal politics but the strategic balance across the Middle East.
For now, however, the central mystery remains unresolved.
Iran’s new supreme leader has yet to appear publicly.
And as pressure mounts on the regime’s security apparatus, the question facing Iran may be less about where Mojtaba Khamenei is — and more about who truly governs behind him.
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