Air quality across wide parts of Iran deteriorated sharply on Saturday, with official data showing pollution reaching “unhealthy for all” levels in large areas of Tehran, Khuzestan and Isfahan provinces.
Air quality in nine monitoring stations across Tehran Province was classified as red on Saturday, according to the National Air Quality Monitoring System. Pollution levels in the cities of Damavand, Varamin, Pakdasht, Gharchak, and Shahriar in Tehran province ranged between 150 and 170 on the Air Quality Index (AQI), placing them in the “unhealthy for all” category.
The average air quality across Tehran’s 22 municipal districts stood at 136, categorised as “unhealthy for sensitive groups.” Under AQI scale, readings above 150 are considered unhealthy for the general population, while levels above 200 are deemed very unhealthy.
Khuzestan sees most severe conditions
Air pollution reached more alarming levels in Khuzestan Province in the south, where officials reported some of the worst conditions nationwide. The air quality monitoring center said the AQI in the city of Hendijan rose to 212, placing it in the purple category and signalling “very unhealthy” air.
Several other cities, including Ahvaz, Khorramshahr, Mahshahr, Dezful, etc. recorded AQI readings above 150, leaving air quality unhealthy for all age groups. Authorities advised elderly people, children, pregnant women and those with heart or respiratory illnesses to avoid outdoor activity, urging others to limit time outside.
Isfahan and Mashhad affected
Security and police forces were deployed at the site from early Friday morning and, as in previous years, sealed the cemetery gates to block families from entering, a Telegram channel called Charter of Freedom, Welfare and Equality reported. The forces also prevented relatives from gathering outside the entrance, displaying photographs of their loved ones or laying flowers.
Despite the restrictions, some families marked the anniversary by scattering flowers along the road leading to the cemetery or throwing bouquets over the walls into Khavaran, the report said.
Khavaran is widely known as the main burial site for victims of mass executions carried out in the 1980s, particularly during the summer of 1988, when thousands of political prisoners were executed following orders issued by Ruhollah Khomeini. Special tribunals later referred to by survivors as “death commissions” ordered the executions while many prisoners were already serving sentences.
Exact figures remain unknown due to official secrecy, but rights groups estimate that around 5,000 political prisoners – mainly supporters of the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran, also known as Mojahedin-e-Khalq, and leftist movements – were executed in 1988 alone.
Unanswered appeals to the president
The restrictions come despite repeated appeals by families. In January 2024, dozens of relatives of those executed in the 1980s wrote an open letter to President Masoud Pezeshkian, saying they had been barred from Khavaran for more than 11 months and subjected to humiliating treatment by officials in charge of the site. They demanded an end to other burials at the cemetery and the removal of all obstacles to mourning and remembrance.
No public response from Pezeshkian has been reported, and access restrictions have continued.
Erasing evidence
The Telegram channel also said burials of deceased Baha’i citizens continue in mass graves at Khavaran, despite longstanding objections from families and the Baha’i community. In March 2024, the Baha'i International Community reported the destruction of more than 30 Baha’i graves at the site.
Families have repeatedly warned that such actions amount to desecration and an attempt to erase evidence of past crimes. “Commemorating loved ones and collective mourning is the most basic human right,” the group said, adding that preventing memorials denies the dignity of the victims and seeks to silence demands for justice.
At the start of 2024, Iran appeared to be riding high — expanding regional reach, edging closer to nuclear threshold status and projecting confidence at home and abroad. That trajectory began to reverse in late 2024 and accelerated into 2025.
The past year brought direct confrontation with Israel and later the United States, the weakening of Tehran’s regional proxy network and mounting domestic pressures. What it did not bring was collapse.
That survival, analysts warn, may now be shaping how the Islamic Republic approaches 2026 — not as a moment for restraint, but as proof that it can endure unprecedented pressure and press forward.
The defining moment of the year was the June war with Israel, a confrontation that punctured long-held assumptions about Iran’s deterrence while stopping short of triggering a regime change.
On Eye for Iran, Middle East analyst and former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed who directs the Inside the Middle East fellowship program for policy and security professionals; journalist and investigative reporter Jay Solomon, author of The Iran Wars; and historian Shahram Kholdi assessed what the Islamic Republic’s survival says about the year that is about to end and why its interpretation of that survival could make the coming year more volatile.
Fear is breaking — but survival is being reframed
Avi Melamed pointed to a psychological shift inside Iran as one of the most consequential developments of 2025.
“The most significant one is that I think that we are witnessing now a very significant shift in Iran in the sense that many Iranian people are no longer afraid of this regime,” he said.
That erosion of fear has coincided with widespread social defiance, particularly among younger Iranians and women, even as repression continues.
Shahram Kholdi said that Tehran is not reading this moment as a loss. Instead, he argued, the leadership is internalizing 2025 through a survivalist lens — one that encourages defiance rather than restraint.
“If something that can kill you doesn’t destroy you, it makes you stronger,” Kholdi said, describing what he sees as the clerical establishment’s core mentality after the June war with Israel.
That belief, he argued, helps explain why executions have continued and why the Islamic Republic is signaling resolve despite suffering unprecedented blows.
A strategic reversal — interpreted as a test passed
Externally, 2025 marked a sharp break from the trajectory that once favored Tehran. Jay Solomon described the year as a reversal after decades in which Iran expanded influence through proxies and deterrence.
“The word I’d use for the year is weakness,” he said.
Solomon pointed to Israeli strikes, the degradation of Hezbollah and Hamas, and Iran’s struggle to manage overlapping crises — from inflation and water shortages to public dissent.
Yet despite expectations of mass bloodshed following the June conflict, the Islamic Republic ultimately pulled back, reinforcing its own perception that it had weathered the storm.
Why 2026 may be more volatile
For the analysts the biggest concern for 2026 was the risk ahead.
Iran’s deterrence model has been punctured but not abandoned. Instead, Tehran appears determined to rebuild — restoring proxy leverage, advancing missile capabilities and reasserting influence amid uncertainty.
Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile appears largely intact following the June war, with roughly 2,000 heavy missiles still in its arsenal, according to Al-Monitor.
The outlet cited an Israeli security source saying that Israel's military intelligence had conveyed the assessment to the United States in an indication that Israel is urging Washington to again act to address the alleged threat.
Melamed warned that this environment heightens the risk of miscalculation. Kholdi argued that the belief that Iran “didn’t lose” the June war makes confrontation more likely, not less. Solomon added that shifting political currents in the United States are being closely watched in Tehran and Tel Aviv alike, narrowing the window for restraint.
The danger, the panel suggested, is that survival itself is being treated as victory.
As 2026 begins, the Islamic Republic may be weaker — but convinced it has passed a test. That conviction could shape the year ahead more than any battlefield outcome.
“The costs of making a carpet are high and the profits low,” Akram Fakhri, a 45-year-old weaver in Kashan, told the FT, describing the pressures facing artisans across Iran.
Once a flagship of Iran’s non-oil exports, Persian rugs are expected to generate less than $40mn in the year to March 2026, down from $41.7mn the previous year, according to the Carpet and Handicrafts Commission of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce.
Export revenues have stayed below $100mn for six consecutive years, compared with a peak of more than $2bn three decades ago – figures that commission chair Morteza Haji Aghamiri described as “so meagre we can say it is practically zero.”
The downturn accelerated after 2018, when then US president Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions. As foreign reserves tightened, Iran required exporters to sell part of their foreign-currency earnings to the central bank at the official exchange rate rather than at market rates.
The rule destroyed incentives to export, Industry representatives said. “It completely paralysed the sector. None of them have any motivation to stay active in global markets,” said Abdollah Bahrami, head of the National Union of Handwoven Carpet Co-operatives.
For weavers such as Fakhri, the economics no longer work. She told the FT she must invest $250 in wool and silk and spend a year weaving a single carpet, only to hope it might sell for more than $600. Without social security or state support, she said the work has become physically exhausting. “I work with constant back and leg pain. But hiring an assistant weaver is beyond my means.”
Iranian carpets were once exported to about 80 countries, but sales are now largely limited to markets such as the UAE, Germany, Japan, the UK and Pakistan. As Iran lost ground, competitors from Turkey, India, China and Afghanistan moved in. “After the US market closed, some traders began rerouting Persian rugs to the US through third countries… hurting Iran’s craft by concealing its identity,” said Mohsen Shojaei, a carpet trader in Mashhad.
Regional tensions have compounded the decline. Shojaei said: “The disruption of regional airspace after the war with Israel, along with other political tensions, caused foreign traders to lose confidence.”
While officials have promised support, industry figures remain bleak. “The future? The future is gone. The sound of the loom in villages and towns has fallen silent,” Bahrami said.
Speaking on Thursday at a meeting with economic activists in Isfahan, Abbas Araghchi said Iran must accept the reality of sanctions and learn to live with them.
“We must accept that sanctions exist and accept that it is possible to live with sanctions,” he said. “Sanctions have their costs… I know very well what sanctions mean and what their costs are. I know their problems and I also know their blessings.”
The remarks quickly drew criticism as Iran grapples with soaring inflation, a weakening rial and sharp rises in the price of basic goods, pressures that have hit low-income households hardest.
Senior officials are insulated from the realities of sanctions, Economist Mohammad Tabibian wrote in a note. “We all know that he and other gentlemen can live well and comfortably even under far worse conditions,” Tabibian wrote.
“Please do not speak on behalf of the people. Ask the people themselves and let them describe their own situation.”
Social media backlash
Users on social media platforms, including X, also reacted angrily. One user identified as Yousef pointed to the recent surge in the dollar’s exchange rate hitting 1.36 million rials, writing: “The blessings are for rent-seekers and mafias. For the people, only poverty and hunger remain.”
Another user, Zahidi, criticized what he described as the lavish lifestyles of senior officials.
“Even if people are pushed into conditions worse than total deprivation, it is still a blessing for Mr. Araghchi and his friends,” he wrote, adding that the gap between officials and ordinary citizens has grown impossibly wide.
Others described the comments as offensive. A user named Azita called the remarks “shameful,” writing: “Do not speak on behalf of the nation. Sanctions have only brought misery. What blessing?”
‘People below the poverty line’
Further criticism focused on the contradiction between official rhetoric and lived experience. One user wrote that while people are being driven below the poverty line, “embezzlers ride in luxury limousines.” Another commented: “Sanctions for people mean medicine shortages, unemployment, poverty and constant anxiety. If sanctions are a blessing, publish the list of beneficiaries.”
Another post argued that Araghchi’s comments were impossible to accept for people “whose backs have been broken under the weight of sanctions,” adding that any benefits accrue to networks involved in evading sanctions, not to the public.
The backlash reflects broader public frustration with economic conditions after years of sanctions and policy mismanagement, as the cost of living continues to climb and the national currency loses value.
For many critics, Araghchi’s remarks underscored a widening disconnect between Iran’s political leadership and the daily struggles of its citizens.
In Isfahan Province, conditions were also severe. The AQI in the city of Isfahan reached 186 on Saturday morning, while some stations recorded readings above 200.
Meanwhile, officials in Mashhad said air quality there had reached “unhealthy for sensitive groups,” with pollution recorded in 16 areas of the city.
Despite recurring winter pollution crises, Iranian authorities have so far relied largely on temporary measures such as short-term closures, with critics saying no effective or lasting solution has been implemented to address the underlying causes of chronic air pollution.
