Iran International
Israel is reassessing the impact of its June military campaign on Iran’s ballistic missile program as analysts say Tehran is keen to rebuild its core deterrent in a move that could set the stage for renewed war.
Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile appears largely intact following the June war, with roughly 2,000 heavy missiles still in its arsenal, according to Al-Monitor.
The outlet cited an Israeli security source saying that Israel's military intelligence had conveyed the assessment to the United States in an indication that Israel is urging Washington to again act to address the alleged threat.
A senior Israeli official told lawmakers in a closed Knesset briefing, according to Israeli outlet Ynet, that large-scale ballistic missile production has resumed roughly six months after the June war.
“Iran is taking steps to rebuild its missile production capabilities," Greg Brew, Iran analyst with the Eurasia Group think thank, told Iran International," which is not surprising given that it is imperative for the regime to strengthen its position following the war in June.”
Brew said rebuilding missile capacity is a more likely near-term goal than reviving the country's stricken nuclear program, which would carry significantly higher political and military risks.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said last month that Tehran had rebuilt its missile power beyond pre-war levels. Iran has also signaled its prowess publicly.
Last week, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced major naval exercises in the Persian Gulf involving cruise and ballistic missiles with a reported range of 2,000 kilometers, as well as suicide drones.
The critical question, analysts say, is whether Iran’s rebuilding efforts will be tolerated.
“The real question is whether these steps will be enough to trigger action by Israel,” Brew said. “I’m inclined to think that Israel will act preemptively to prevent Iran from rebuilding a missile arsenal that could theoretically overwhelm Israeli air defenses.”
Such a move would almost certainly require American backing, Brew added.
While Israel’s campaign inflicted significant damage, analysts note it was always constrained in its ability to impose lasting limits on Iran’s missile program.
Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute said Israeli strikes hit at least 15 of Iran’s 30 to 35 main missile industrial complexes and about 15 of 25 missile bases, with numerous mobile launchers also targeted.
But Iran’s hardened underground infrastructure blunted the long-term impact.
“Considering the industrial basis and hardened nature of IRGC missile tunnel complexes, it is almost beyond doubt that original Israeli estimates of sustainable damage caused to those facilities is over-optimistic,” Nadimi told Iran International, referring to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Israel and the United States expressed public satisfaction at the impact their joint war in June dealt to Iran, while Iranian officials have insisted their capabilities remain intact and have vowed retaliation for any future attacks.
For Shahram Kholdi, an expert on Middle Eastern military history, the reassessment reflects a recalibration of expectations rather than strategic failure.
“The June strikes were aimed at degrading and disrupting Iran’s missile program at a critical moment, not eliminating it outright,” he said.
As Israel and the United States reassess Iran’s missile trajectory, question may no longer whether Tehran is rebuilding, but whether its progress will cross red lines that prompt preemptive action — and whether Washington would support it.
