Israel lacks the capacity to fight a prolonged war with Iran, an Iranian daily affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps wrote, saying that any renewed conflict would be far costlier and longer than a previous 12-day confrontation.
“Israel does not have the capacity for an intense war of attrition or for confronting a major power like Iran, and it is clear that another war would not end in 12 days as the previous one did,” Javan wrote in an analysis on Wednesday.
The 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025 was a brief but intense conflict. It began with extensive Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities.
The United States became militarily involved mid‑conflict. On June 22, US Air Force and Navy forces carried out coordinated strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities – Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan – in an operation codenamed Operation Midnight Hammer, using B‑2 bombers and submarine‑launched missiles, marking the first US offensive against Iranian territory in decades. Iranian forces fired missiles at US assets in Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, after those strikes.
The conflict ended with a US and Qatari-mediated ceasefire, but it caused significant casualties, infrastructure damage.
Israeli rhetoric, the paper said, has shifted from threats of decisive victory to language of caution and warnings about the costs of renewed conflict.
Air strikes, according to Javan, failed to halt what it called Iran’s “distributed and self-sufficient” military production. The paper also argued that the previous fighting severely strained Israel’s multilayer missile defense systems.
“Israeli officials are now openly speaking of the ‘real threat’ posed by Iran’s missiles and warning that without preventive action Iran could reach annual production of thousands of missiles,” the paper said.
Focus shifts from battlefield to society
Javan framed the change in tone as evidence that the military option has lost credibility, writing that the inability to control the consequences of war has weakened Israel’s long-standing doctrine of absolute military superiority.
“War in the contemporary world is not merely a military confrontation, but a test of social capacity, political cohesion and national resilience,” the paper wrote, arguing that internal divisions, political strains and reliance on external support limit Israel’s ability to endure a prolonged conflict.
The article concluded that future confrontation will be shaped as much by narratives and domestic resilience as by missiles and air defenses.
The defendant, identified as Yaghoub Karimpour, a resident of Miandoab in West Azarbaijan province, was arrested by Iran’s intelligence ministry during the 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel earlier this year, the sources said.
Karimpour, born in 1984, was convicted of “corruption on earth” through alleged cooperation with Israel and the transmission of data, they added. He is currently being held in Urmia Central Prison.
According to the sources, Karimpour has denied the charges throughout his detention and trial, saying he had no links to Israel and had not passed any information. They said he told investigators that confessions attributed to him were extracted under coercion.
Iran’s judiciary has not publicly commented on the case, and Reuters was not able to independently verify the allegations.
Iranian authorities have intensified arrests, prosecutions and executions on charges of espionage or collaboration with Israel in the months following the brief war. Officials say the measures are necessary to safeguard national security, while rights groups say the trials often lack transparency and rely on forced confessions.
In recent weeks, Iran has carried out several executions linked to espionage allegations.
Earlier in December, authorities executed Aghil Keshavarz, an architecture student, after convicting him of spying for Israel, state-linked media reported.
The Hengaw human rights organization said that at least 17 people have been executed in Iran this year on charges related to cooperation with Israel, 15 of them after the conflict.
Iranian officials have arrested hundreds of people since the war on suspicion of espionage or collaboration with Israel.
Many of the cases have been pursued under a law passed by parliament in October that broadened definitions of espionage and cooperation with “hostile states,” including Israel and the United States, and allows for capital punishment in a wide range of activities involving alleged information sharing.
“Our sources in Tehran now tell us that, in October, Khamenei decided to give the green light to the development of compact warheads for ballistic missiles,” the report said.
The report said Khamenei had previously blocked any move to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels or to develop deliverable nuclear warheads, despite pressure from within Iran’s security establishment, particularly the Revolutionary Guards.
It said the June conflict with Israel marked a turning point, exposing weaknesses in Iran’s air defenses and allied forces, while highlighting the limits of its missile arsenal in a prolonged conflict.
“The only true deterrent that could save the Iranian regime in the event of a conflict against Israel and its US allies would be nuclear weapons,” the report said.
Enrichment still capped, for now
“At the same time, however, Khamenei would still not have authorised uranium enrichment beyond 60%,” the report said, adding that rumors persist of an undisclosed enrichment effort at a covert site not declared to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
It said Iran appears to be prioritizing warhead design over enrichment to reduce the risk of exposure to military strikes.
The report said that even if Iran chose to move quickly on enrichment, developing a deliverable warhead would take far longer.
“While enrichment to 90% would require only a few weeks if there were still enough working centrifuges, compact warheads remain a far more complex challenge,” it said, citing Pakistan’s experience in the 1990s, when years of testing and design work were needed before a viable compact warhead was achieved.
Missiles at core of deterrence
Iran’s focus on compact warheads is tied to its medium- and long-range missile force, which the report said proved decisive in forcing a ceasefire with Israel in June, even as Israel destroyed a significant number of Iranian missiles and launchers.
Recent contradictory reports over possible missile activity in Iran, later denied by state television, underscore the sensitivity around the country’s missile program and its role in deterrence.
The report said Iran could seek external assistance to shorten the timeline for developing compact warheads, noting persistent rumors within the Revolutionary Guards of cooperation with North Korea.
“Even access to previously tested warhead schematics would represent a major shortcut,” it said, while adding that cooperation beyond missile technology remains impossible to verify.
Iran has long said its nuclear program is peaceful and defensive, while Western governments accuse Tehran of keeping open the option of developing nuclear weapons.
“Any sounds of explosions or gunfire heard during these two days will be related to the drill and will be fully controlled,” Ghorban Valizadeh said, according to Mehr news agency. He urged residents to remain calm.
Valizadeh, commander of the Sayyed al-Shohada Guards unit in Tehran province, said the exercise, known as “Beit al-Moqaddas 16,” will include staged scenarios and will be carried out by ground units.
He said the drill is held every year under the same name by ground forces of the Revolutionary Guards in different parts of the country, framing it as a standard exercise rather than a new development.
The Guards’ ground forces are tasked with homeland defense and the suppression of internal threats.
Contradictory reports on missile activity
The announcement follows contradictory reports earlier this week after an IRGC-aligned outlet reported missile tests over several Iranian cities, including Tehran, Isfahan and Mashhad. State television later denied that any missile launches had taken place, saying circulating images were not linked to a test.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that Israel was aware Iran was conducting military exercises and was making preparations.
Defense analyst Farzin Nadimi told Iran International that the reported drills could be read as a signal, saying the Guards were showing they could carry out coordinated military activity across different parts of Iran.
Iranian officials have repeatedly said the country’s military activities are defensive. Earlier this week, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran’s defense capabilities were not open to discussion.
