A senior Iranian economist warned on Saturday that annual inflation could exceed 60% by the end of the year (March 2026), as the government struggles to contain soaring prices and widening poverty amid renewed sanctions and fiscal strain.
Official data show point-to-point inflation nearing 50%, while food costs have surged far faster, underscoring what analysts describe as a severe stagflation gripping the country.
“If the Pezeshkian administration fails to calm economic tensions, Iran will face a major stagflation crisis,” said Morteza Afghah, an economist at Ahvaz University, quoted by the Khabar Online website.
Afghahsaid the crisis was the result of years of “right-wing economic policies” and warned that hundreds of thousands of Iranians no longer earn enough to cover basic nutrition. He urged the government to cut unnecessary spending and overhaul the tax system so that “large-scale earners shoulder the burden” instead of further squeezing low-income families.
The remarks came as Iranian media reported that food inflation and basic living costs have sharply outpaced general prices, with many middle- and working-class families now below the poverty line. Parliament’s Research Center previously estimated that 30% of Iranians lived in poverty; new assessments put that figure closer to 36%.
According to lawmaker Rahmatollah Norouzi, even workers earning 450 million rials (around $400 at today’s market rates) “live below the poverty line” if they rent their homes.
Official labor data show the base monthly wage is less than 110 million rials, rising to about 150 million with benefits (about $100 to $150) -- far below the estimated 230 million needed for basic subsistence, according to the Supreme Labor Council.
Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani recently said the poverty line per person stands at 60 million rials, prompting sharp criticism from unions and economists who called the figure “divorced from reality.”
Economic hardship has already taken a toll on health and education. The Health Ministry estimates poor nutrition contributes to about 35% of annual deaths in Iran, with tens of thousands dying each year from dietary deficiencies, including lack of fruits, grains, and essential fatty acids.
A report last week by Iran’s Statistical Center showed food inflation at nearly 64% -- a rate far higher than the overall 48% inflation estimate. Agricultural output has shrunk by more than 7% amid drought and a shortage of foreign currency for food imports.
Analysts say the situation risks worsening as renewed UN sanctions and a potential fuel price hike add further pressure.
