Iran’s establishment is bracing for renewed public unrest as UN sanctions squeeze an already fragile economy, Reuters reported, citing officials and experts warning that the government’s options to avert crisis are narrowing.
“The establishment knows protests are inevitable, it is only a matter of time ... The problem is growing, while our options are shrinking,” according to one Iranian official quoted by Reuters.
The sanctions, reimposed last month after the collapse of nuclear talks, have accelerated inflation, weakened the rial, and pushed millions further into poverty. The national currency has fallen past 1.1 million to the dollar, while inflation remainsabout 40%.
Officials told Reuters that high-level meetings have been held in Tehran to manage “simmering public anger” and prevent a repeat of past protests that shook the country.
“Mounting distress could reignite mass protests among lower- and middle-income Iranians,” a second official said.
The government, they said, blames the United States, its allies, and Israel for using sanctions to “fuel unrest” and threaten the Islamic Republic’s survival.
“The impact of the UN sanctions will be severe and multifaceted, deepening the country’s longstanding structural and financial vulnerabilities,” said Umud Shokri, an energy strategist at George Mason University. “The government is struggling to maintain stability as sanctions disrupt trade, banking, and oil exports.”
While Iran continues to rely on discounted crude sales to China, officials told Reuters that even this lifeline could weaken if Beijingseeks to ease tensions with Washington.
The prospect of deepening hardship has heightened fears within the establishment of another wave of street protests like those that erupted in 2019 and 2022 over fuel prices and compulsory hijab enforcement.
With unemployment rising and living costs soaring, the government’s reliance on security measures to preserve order risks backfiring, analysts warn.
As one Tehran-based trader put it: “When people lose faith in the currency, they lose faith in the system.”
