Europe says diplomacy still open despite snapback sanctions - WSJ

The Israeli and US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June were “a major gamble” that disrupted a dangerous status quo but left unanswered questions about whether Tehran might now seek a bomb, according to an analysis published in the journal Survival: Global Politics and Strategy.

Michael Eisenstadt, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, wrote that while it is unclear how much damage was inflicted, the attacks upended Iran’s steady accumulation of highly enriched uranium and expansion of its missile program.

He said the strikes could “strengthen the hand of nuclear-weapons advocates in Iran” but also make continued hedging -- keeping a weapons option without building one -- more attractive, given Tehran’s vulnerability to sabotage and airstrikes.

“Iran may take its time, as long as it believes rebuilding is likely to prompt another Israeli or American military response,” Eisenstadt wrote, adding that its programremains penetrated by Israeli intelligence.

He warned that Tehran might still attempt a clandestine effort in hardened sites or seek external supplies, though “such a path would be fraught with risks.”

Eisenstadt said many in Tehran may still argue for restraint, given economic pressures and lost air defenses.

Although the strikes were a gamble, Eisenstadt concluded they halted steps that might have enabled Iran to quickly break out. “The key question,” he wrote, “is whether the United States and Israel can translate recent military gains into sustainable political achievements by stabilizing Syria, constraining Hezbollah and concluding a broader and better nuclear deal with Iran.”

A senior commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the country’s offensive power has increased tenfold since the 12-day war with Israel earlier this year, state media reported on Thursday.

Hossein Nejat, deputy commander of the IRGC’s Sarallah Headquarters, told Fars news agency that “if Israel makes the same mistake again, our offensive capability is now 10 times greater than at the start of the 12-day war.”

Nejat added that the improvements extended beyond weapons systems to updated operational plans and structured exercises, which he said would allow Iran to deliver stronger blows to “sensitive centers of the Zionist regime” if conflict resumes.

Araghchi told CNN this week that negotiations with Washington under the current conditions amounted to “a total deadlock,” citing what Tehran calls repeated breaches of commitments by the United States.

He said UN sanctions reimposed under the snapback mechanism had made diplomacy more complicated and difficult.

The IRNA analysis said Iran and the United States, since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January, had moved between dialogue and confrontation.

Initial indirect talks mediated through Oman and Qatar saw US envoy Steve Witkoff float limited enrichment proposals, but Washington later demanded zero enrichment and the handover of enriched uranium stockpiles.

Iran has strongly rejected US demands, a stance underscored by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a televised address just before President Masoud Pezeshkian’s speech to the UN General Assembly.

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  Khamenei’s reversal on secret US talks hamstrings president at UN

Echoing that line, Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on Thursday that Western powers were not seeking genuine negotiations but aimed to exploit economic and security pressure. “Western governments see economic pressure as a tool to trigger unrest and weaken Iran,” he said.

Pezeshkian also rejected those terms, saying: “Why should we give them our enriched uranium? For what reason? If there is to be dialogue, it must be about the whole issue. Otherwise this is not negotiation; this is surrender.”

Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said on Wednesday that, according to Araghchi, Iran had expressed readiness in New York to hold a meeting with the three European countries, the International Atomic Energy Agency and US envoy Steve Witkoff, but the proposal was either rejected or the counterparts failed to attend.

Mistrust deepens after June conflict

IRNA said Tehran views US demands as unilateral impositions and believes the American approach has aligned with Israel’s military campaign against Iran earlier this year.

The agency added that Israel’s 12-day conflict with Iran in June, joined briefly by US forces, was seen in Tehran as “a shot at diplomacy” that reinforced mistrust.

Citing Iranian officials, IRNA said Washington most recently offered to delay snapback sanctions by three, then nine, and finally 12 months in return for a halt to enrichment and the transfer of uranium stocks.

Tehran rejected the plan, with Pezeshkian calling it “excessive and coercive.”

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  G7 blames Iran for renewed sanctions, urges immediate US talks

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  Sanctions response betrays Tehran's entrenched divides, policy drift

Tehran mulling over response

The analysis said Iran’s immediate response is likely to be guided by the Supreme National Security Council, with possible measures including suspending the “Cairo Agreement” with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

While exit from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty was described as unlikely, IRNA said Iran would continue to rely on “resistance economics,” closer ties with non-Western partners such as China and Russia, and selective diplomacy.

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  EU revives bans on Iran’s oil, banking and transport sectors after UN snapback

The government is scheduled to approve a response plan to the UN snapback sanctions on Sunday, Mohajerani said on Wednesday, adding the strategy assigns ministries tasks to ease public pressure.

“Tehran currently sees the solution in adopting strategic patience until the West changes course or the playing field shifts,” the agency wrote. It added that success would depend on domestic economic reforms, unity at home, and stronger backing from non-Western allies.

The West is not pursuing real negotiations with Tehran but instead seeks to exploit economic and security pressure, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said on Thursday.

“It seems the United States, Israel and Western states largely believe they have limited time to reshape regional geopolitics, and they recognize the resistance front as a significant force,” Ali Larijani said.

Western governments, he added, see economic pressure on Iran as a potential trigger for social unrest that could make it easier to settle accounts with the country.

Iran requires uranium enriched to 60% and above, as well as plutonium enriched to 90%, the spokesman of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee said Thursday.

“For sub-surface fuel, we need uranium enriched to 60% and beyond,” Ebrahim Rezaei said.

“We also need plutonium enriched to 90%, but our requirement is not for military purposes or weapon-building,” Rezaei

added.