Khamenei’s reversal on secret US talks hamstrings president at UN

According to two members of Pezeshkian's delegation, the 86-year-old hardline theocrat had privately told the relatively moderate president he could start a secret dialogue if it headed off the return of United Nations sanctions due for the week's end.

But as their plane crossed the Atlantic, Khamenei delivered a fiery speech on state television categorically ruling out any talks with Washington in a reversal that stunned Pezeshkian and Iran's top envoy, according to the two sources.

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi later confided before a closed-door meeting of Iranian experts and academics that renewed US talks were the only avenue to halt the return of the European-triggered sanctions, three participants told Iran International.

The episode shows the Supreme Leader and his top civilian officials are deeply at odds about how to chart Tehran's way out of the lingering impasse over its nuclear program which threatens further conflict after a punishing Israeli-US war in June.

Araghchi and US President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff had held indirect talks for two months before a surprise Israeli military campaign on Iran on June 13.

The attacks were capped off by US strikes on three key Iranian nuclear sites which appeared to bury much of Iran's highly-enriched uranium stockpiles but left the ultimate resolution of the West's standoff with Iran on its nuclear ambitions unresolved.

Khamenei in his speech and Pezeshkian in an address before the United Nations again said Tehran does not seek a bomb and hit out at sanctions as unfair and illegal.

Closed-door meeting in Manhattan

On Friday, Sept. 26, shortly after the UN Security Council rejected Russian and Chinese proposals to suspend the snapback of UN sanctions on Iran, Pezeshkian and Araghchi met with a small group of invited Iranian experts and academics at The Luxury Collection Hotel in Manhattan.

The session was scheduled to last an hour, but before it began, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi lingered in the lobby with a few of the invitees, speaking more candidly than usual about Tehran's predicament.

“The only way to stop the snapback was direct talks,” Araghchi told them. “And only direct talks can prevent further escalation. But we are not allowed to engage.”

He even suggested the participants urge Pezeshkian to try to persuade the Supreme Leader, but none of them did that.

Khamenei's U-turn on secret US talks

Three participants in the private meeting later recounted to Iran International, on condition of anonymity, that Araghchi elaborated further before the session began.

He explained that before leaving Tehran, Pezeshkian had raised the idea of direct engagement with the Supreme Leader. The Americans, he said, had laid out three firm conditions for such talks with envoy Steve Witkoff:

1. Public, on-the-record meetings with the press present before and after.

2. Disclosure of the location of 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium.

3. Full access for inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Araghchi said Ayatollah Khamenei had rejected public negotiations but explicitly agreed that secret direct talks would be acceptable if they could stop the snapback.

Yet by the time the delegation landed in New York, the Supreme Leader had gone on state television to rule out any talks at all — directly contradicting his private position and leaving the delegation blindsided.

Inside Tehran’s New York huddle

The private hourlong session with Pezeshkian brought together a group of academics and experts including Houshang Amirahmadi, an academic and longtime advocate of US–Iran engagement; Vali Nasr, a scholar and former State Department adviser; and Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

The other participants included Hadi Kahalzadeh, a fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft; Djavad Salehi Esfahani, a professor of economics at Virginia Tech; Masoud Delbari, a senior energy expert and analyst; Ali-Akbar Mousavi Khoeini, a former Iranian parliamentarian and reformist activist; Mohammad Manzarpour, a freelance journalist; and Yousef Azizi, a PhD candidate at Virginia Tech.

Amirahmadi spoke first, and for nearly half the meeting. For about 25 minutes he laid out a stark binary: surrender or go nuclear. He argued that the United States’ main problem with Iran was not its nuclear program but its strength in the region. Washington, he said, does not want a “powerful Iran.” He strongly advised Pezeshkian that Iran must invest more heavily in its missile and military capabilities, declaring that the time had come to pursue a nuclear deterrent. His remarks went on so long that Iran’s UN envoy, Amir Saeed Iravani, eventually asked him to conclude.

Pezeshkian, throughout, took careful notes. When he returned to Tehran, he told journalists at the airport that in his meeting with Iranians, “one of the respected figures” had said the United States’ real problem with Iran was its strength. He did not name Amirahmadi but directly echoed his point.

Because of the length of Amirahmadi’s remarks, only a few others had time to weigh in. Parsi said the major sanctions were American sanctions, with UN measures adding complications but not being the primary concern. He added that despite the UN sanctions, he expected China to continue buying Iranian oil, saying Beijing would likely ignore the restrictions. Both Araghchi and Pezeshkian nodded in agreement. Parsi also insisted that direct dialogue with Washington remained the only way to avoid escalation and prevent Israel from exploiting Iran’s isolation.

Nasr offered a bleaker assessment, saying Tehran had missed its chance under President Biden and that little could now be recovered. He spoke briefly and did not engage further.

A system in crisis

The contradictions at the heart of Tehran’s decision-making were unmistakable. Privately, Khamenei had given conditional approval for secret talks, and Araghchi confided this to a few attendees, making clear that Iran’s leadership understood direct dialogue was the only path left.

Publicly, however, the Supreme Leader reversed himself overnight, denouncing all negotiations and leaving his own president and foreign minister uncertain of their mandate.

The episode revealed a system in crisis: with the president, the foreign minister, and many political figures pressing for de-escalation as the only way to avoid another war, while Khamenei alone stood in the way, shifting positions in a manner that even his closest envoys struggled to navigate.

The president’s trip to New York, meant to showcase pragmatism, instead underscored paralysis.

Editor’s Note:
Our initial report, based on sources, said that Farnaz Fassihi attended the meeting. The New York Times has since issued a statement saying that she was not present. Accordingly, her name has been removed from the report.

“They push this oil through corrupt networks and the worst actors in the government— people already sanctioned internationally," said Miad Maleki, former head of the US Treasury’s Office of Global Targeting within the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), "They get paid for only one out of five barrels they ship.”

The United States has maintained sanctions on the Islamic Revolution for decades but the measures were dramatically ramped up in 2018 when Donald Trump launched his so-called maximum pressure campaign.

Tehran has developed elaborate methods to evade sanctions, including a dark fleet of tankers that baffle tracking by switching off their transponders and conduct ship-to-ship transfers to mask the origin of its oil.

Maleki, a US air force veteran, argues these methods renders oil sales extremely costly. “Most of the money is wasted on shipping, discounts and commissions paid to layers of corrupt actors,” he said.

In nearly eight years at OFAC, Maleki helped design and implement the Treasury's sanctions campaigns against the Islamic Republic and its regional allies including Hezbollah and Hamas

'Malign intent'

Maleki said he never saw signs that goal of Iran’s leadership was sustainable growth for its citizenry.

“It was mostly about day-to-day survival and paying political rent to supporters,” he said. Instead, Iran’s oil revenues have been funneled to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its elite clandestine wing, the Quds Force and other heavily sanctioned actors.

Born in Iran and a first-hand witness to life's hardships there, Maleki said he saw sanctions as a way to ultimately help the Iranian people, since Iran’s rulers would not use oil revenue for public benefit.

“Any value taken away from this cycle is value taken away from corruption and malign intent,” he said.

During President Trump’s first term, Maleki was an architect of the new sanctions regime and helped pushed their remit beyond oil.

“Sanctions on the financial sector were the key,” Maleki said. “Targeting IRGC and Defense Ministry-owned banks tied the regime’s hands in dealing with the global financial system. It was very impactful.”

In 2019, Washington also sanctioned the office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Maleki sees it as one of the most impactful measures against the Islamic Republic, citing the vast wealth controlled by sprawling state foundations under Khamenei’s supervision including Bonyad Mostazafan, the Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order (Setad) and Astan Quds Razavi.

Enmeshed in critical sectors spanning the economy, many of the entities disguised their activities as philanthropy.

“They invest in metals, petrochemicals and agriculture. But you don’t see much charity work,” he said.

Maleki said the sanctions were designed so that even after Khamenei, the next supreme leader and his appointees will remain under sanctions.

“The Bonyads and foundations and all the subsidiaries are operating Iran's economy and stealing from their own people and also engaging in funding a wide range of nefarious activities, supporting terrorism, instead of using those funds to help Iran's economy," he said.

Nuclear costs and wasted billions

US and Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June destroyed key parts of Iran’s nuclear program and ended tense talks between Tehran and Washington.

The United States urged Iran last week to take "immediate and concrete action" to meet its nuclear safeguards obligations.

France, Germany and Britain last month triggered the the so-called snapback mechanism of a 2015 international nuclear deal with Iran which could soon restore global sanctions unless resumed diplomacy secures a reprieve.

Maleki said it was unclear how damaging the move might be.

“The US sanctions are in place. Adding UN sanctions on top of it, I don't know how much meaningful financial restrictions that's going to bring on the regime, but politically, it's going to increase the pressure," he said. "You are going to see some shifts in governments, their approach to Iran, and how diplomatically they are engaged with Iran."

Estimates of Iran’s nuclear spending range from $500 billion to $1 trillion. Maleki said even per the low-range estimate of around half a billion dollars—equivalent to 17-20 years of oil revenue— the program produced only about 11–12% of Iran’s electricity.

A surge in electricity outages across Iran has caused severe disruption to daily life and economic activity, leaving Iranians frustrated and businesses paralyzed.

For roughly €15 billion (about $16 billion), Maleki continued, Iran could have built enough conventional power plants to avoid worsening shortages.

“Even if the goal was peaceful, the nuclear program never made economic sense."

In an exclusive editorial for Iran International, Mohammadi said the slogan Woman, Life, Freedom which became the mantra of the protest movement ignited by her death carries forward a decades-old struggle for human rights in Iran.

"From the image of the Khavaran mother standing tall over an unmarked grave, to the embrace of Mahsa Jina Amini’s parents in a hospital corridor as they endured her final moments in pain and tears, countless scenes have been created that will remain eternal in the history of our nation’s quest for justice," Mohammadi said, referring to mass graves for dissidents executed in 1988.

"In the wasteland of injustice and oppression, justice-seeking is a lamp to light the way, a hope in the darkness of despair, and an effort to resist defeat and passivity," Mohammadi wrote.

She traced a continuous line of activism from executions since the Islamic Republic's earliest days and the so-called chain murders of intellectuals inside Iran in the nineties to student protests, the Green Movement, 2017 and 2019 demonstrations and most recently the Women, Life, Freedom movement.

"Our society, in its pursuit of justice and its struggle to expose oppression and discrimination so that history cannot erase them, stands among the greatest in the world,” Mohammadi said.

Iran’s human rights situation remains dire according to watchdogs, with widespread state surveillance, arbitrary arrests and harsh crackdowns on political activists, journalists and women’s rights defenders.

Ethnic and religious minorities face systemic discrimination, international and Iran-focused rights groups say, and the ruling system continues to suppress protests and civil society movements with imprisonment, torture and executions.

Read the full text: Focus on Society and Justice, by Narges Mohammadi

While the Yemeni militia is launching almost daily drone attacks on Israel, its missile attacks have ebbed as the group struggles to get key supplies from Tehran.

It has recently turned to using Iranian cluster bombs in a bid to make the ballistic missiles more effective while using less missiles as air attacks with drones continue.

“The Houthis possess large quantities of drones and missiles of various types, but they realize that the conflict could drag on for many years," Yemen-based military expert Rashid Maalouf told Iran International. "Therefore, they avoid using these weapons extensively on a daily basis to preserve their strategic stockpile from depletion.”

He said successful interceptions by coastal forces loyal to Yemen's internationally-recognized government have impacted supplies to the group which controls most of the country's population centers since a civil war broke out in 2014.

“Although the Houthis already possess a large stockpile, they are careful to ration it, not because of the immediate shortage, but rather to ensure its long-term sustainability in anticipation of a prolonged conflict.”

On September 4, the Israeli military said it had intercepted five UAVs and two surface-to-surface missiles launched from Yemen.

“In recent months, as part of the cooperation between the Air Force arrays, dozens of unmanned aerial vehicles and surface-to-surface missiles launched from Yemen were successfully intercepted," the statement said.

A day later, Israel announced it had assassinated 12 senior officials from the group who had been gathered together at a meeting in Sanaa.

“The Houthi terrorist regime serves as a central proxy of the Iranian regime, which provides it with funding and weapons for terror activities against the State of Israel and other countries,” the statement said following the airstrike which killed officials including Prime Minister Ahmad Al-Rahawi and other ministers.

Israeli strikes on the Yemeni capital Sanaa and Houthi-held north on Wednesday which in part targeted military and government news outlets supporting the group killed 35 people according to the health ministry and landed on the outskirts of the ancient old city.

On Friday, the Israeli military said 10 Houthi drones had been downed in the previous week. In the early hours of Saturday morning, a Houthi missile was intercepted.

Shortly after the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, the Houthis announced they would interdict shipping off Yemeni waters in solidarity with Palestine.

Despite frequent Houthi attacks on Israel for much of the last two years, most missiles and drones have been intercepted by air defense systems.

Notable lapses came in the form of a Houthi drone attack which killed an Israeli man in Tel Aviv last year and a missile attack which struck outside Israel's busiest airport in May.

In response, Israeli air attacks have killed scores of people, destroyed Yemen's civilian air fleet and targeted ports and energy infrastructure.

Still importing

Former Israeli military intelligence chief Danny Citronowicz told Iran International that the Houthis are facing logistical challenges to manufacture weapons, seen by the focus on drone attacks.

While drones are mostly made domestically, he said, the group still relies on Iranian equipment such as the GPS capabilities.

“The Houthis are still importing weapons from Iran,” Citronowicz added. “They don’t have the ability to manufacture missiles so they’re getting them smuggled from Iran in pieces and putting them together."

“When the US stops the ships [smuggling parts] we see the capabilities they have, but the Houthis need the Iranians still,” added Citronowicz, who said that senior Quds Force commander Abdul Reza Shahla’i is on the ground coordinating the group in Yemen.

Under sanctions, the US has offered a $15m reward for information on his financial activities, networks and associates.

“The Houthis will find it very hard to sustain this ability to launch missiles without getting them from Iran. The ability to manufacture them in Yemen is very hard. They need the components from Iran," he said.

The more complex, the more Iranian

The Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations think tank said in a report that the Iran connection provides more sophisticated weaponry than the group could acquire on their own for both missiles and drones.

“Iranian support has bolstered the group’s fighting abilities, helping the Houthis gain and maintain military superiority within Yemen," it wrote in March.

Since November 2023, the Houthis have targeted over 100 international merchant vessels with missiles and drones, sunk two ships, seized one vessel and killed at least eight seamen.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the US think tank the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), told Iran International that while the Houthis have local production capabilities, the more complex the projectile, the more likely the Houthis are to remain reliant on whole systems or component parts from Tehran.

"But the cheaper the platform, like drones, the more likely they will be able to develop systems with Iranian guidance in country," he said.

"Marrying that assumption with past US and Israeli strikes against Houthi missile launch, production, and storage sites, it’s apparent that both for strategic and cost purposes the terror group would transition to more drone than ballistic missiles strikes."

Figures from commodities intelligence company Kpler shows a sharp rise in Iranian oil offloaded at Chinese ports last month in a sign the world's top oil importer was unfazed by attempted US curbs on Tehran's supplies.

The surge was so significant that Iran’s unsold crude stored at sea in Asian waters—which had been building for months— fell by half in just one month, in a sign of stepped up demand.

According to Kpler, Iranian crude offloaded at Chinese ports in August hit 1.68 million barrels per day (bpd)—a 23% jump from July.

Floating storage dropped to 15 million barrels by September 7, down from 30 million barrels in early August, much of it concentrated near Malaysia.

Since the start of the year, the US Treasury has sanctioned 127 tankers along with dozens of individuals, companies and networks accused of skirting US sanctions on Iranian flows, which it says enriches Tehran's aggressive military moves.

Tehran denounces the sanctions as an attack on the livelihood of its people and bid to bend its policy to Western will.

The frenetic pace of new curbs manifested itself at times in near daily new US announcements on entities in the Treasury and State Department crosshairs for allegedly moving Iran's oil.

Yet the administration’s pledge to “bring Iran’s oil exports to zero” appears to have fallen far short of its intent, the data indicates.

Both loading and discharging volumes of Iranian crude are higher than last year.

While month-to-month fluctuations in Chinese port discharges have been sharp, the overall trend shows growth. On average, China has discharged 1.45 million bpd of Iranian crude over the first eight months of 2025, slightly above the same period last year.

This transpired despite Washington blacklisting more than a hundred “ghost fleet” tankers linked to Iranian smuggling operations.

China holds the key

US efforts to dismantle Iran’s smuggling networks—through monitoring ship-to-ship transfers, forged documents and hidden financial channels—could eventually slow Tehran’s trade.

But Beijing’s willingness to greenlight purchases of Iranian oil appears to have carried the day. Without Chinese cooperation, Washington’s “maximum pressure” strategy could face failure.

Chinese Premier Xi Jinping hosted Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian along with heads of state from Russia, North Korea and other nations not aligned with the United States for an international conference and military parade this month.

The spectacle was widely interpreted as a show of strength and defiance toward American preeminence in global politics and trade and a sign that sharp policy swerves by the Trump administration on sanctions and tariffs were rejected.

Beijing’s insistence on importing Iranian oil is not driven by supply shortages or price discounts alone. The market is oversupplied, and prices are lower than last year.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted in its September 11 report that global oil production this year is expected to rise by 2.7 million bpd, while demand will increase by only 700,000 bpd.

Analysts estimate Tehran grants Chinese refiners discounts of $4-6 per barrel to keep crude moving. Yet China’s persistence in overlooking US sanctions may also serve as a bargaining chip in trade talks.

Since returning to office, President Trump has reimposed multiple layers of tariffs on Chinese goods, and US Census Bureau data shows imports from China fell 19% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025.

China’s refusal to enforce US oil sanctions against Iran could thus be part of a broader strategy to leverage concessions from Washington in its trade disputes.

Oil-for-goods nexus

Another key factor is that Chinese exports to Iran are closely tied to oil imports. Crude shipments underpin China’s status as Iran’s largest trading partner, with part of Tehran’s oil payments settled through barter with Chinese goods.

Beyond crude, China is also the main buyer of Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical products, which together account for about half of the country’s total exports.

Despite US sanctions this year on nine tankers carrying Iranian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), consultancy Vortexa reports Iran’s LPG exports rose to 1.1 million tons in August. Kpler data indicates China absorbs around 80% of that trade.

By relying on imports of Iranian oil and petroleum products, China now accounts for more than a quarter of Iran’s total goods imports—underscoring how central Beijing has become to Tehran’s economic survival.