Oil, gas and Iran economic analyst
The uptake of Iranian oil at Chinese ports hit highs last seen before Donald Trump reentered the White House in early 2025 and revived his so-called maximum pressure campaign, tanker-tracking data obtained by Iran International reveals.
Figures from commodities intelligence company Kpler shows a sharp rise in Iranian oil offloaded at Chinese ports last month in a sign the world's top oil importer was unfazed by attempted US curbs on Tehran's supplies.
The surge was so significant that Iran’s unsold crude stored at sea in Asian waters—which had been building for months— fell by half in just one month, in a sign of stepped up demand.
According to Kpler, Iranian crude offloaded at Chinese ports in August hit 1.68 million barrels per day (bpd)—a 23% jump from July.
Floating storage dropped to 15 million barrels by September 7, down from 30 million barrels in early August, much of it concentrated near Malaysia.
Since the start of the year, the US Treasury has sanctioned 127 tankers along with dozens of individuals, companies and networks accused of skirting US sanctions on Iranian flows, which it says enriches Tehran's aggressive military moves.
Tehran denounces the sanctions as an attack on the livelihood of its people and bid to bend its policy to Western will.
The frenetic pace of new curbs manifested itself at times in near daily new US announcements on entities in the Treasury and State Department crosshairs for allegedly moving Iran's oil.
Yet the administration’s pledge to “bring Iran’s oil exports to zero” appears to have fallen far short of its intent, the data indicates.
Both loading and discharging volumes of Iranian crude are higher than last year.
While month-to-month fluctuations in Chinese port discharges have been sharp, the overall trend shows growth. On average, China has discharged 1.45 million bpd of Iranian crude over the first eight months of 2025, slightly above the same period last year.
This transpired despite Washington blacklisting more than a hundred “ghost fleet” tankers linked to Iranian smuggling operations.
China holds the key
US efforts to dismantle Iran’s smuggling networks—through monitoring ship-to-ship transfers, forged documents and hidden financial channels—could eventually slow Tehran’s trade.
But Beijing’s willingness to greenlight purchases of Iranian oil appears to have carried the day. Without Chinese cooperation, Washington’s “maximum pressure” strategy could face failure.
Chinese Premier Xi Jinping hosted Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian along with heads of state from Russia, North Korea and other nations not aligned with the United States for an international conference and military parade this month.
The spectacle was widely interpreted as a show of strength and defiance toward American preeminence in global politics and trade and a sign that sharp policy swerves by the Trump administration on sanctions and tariffs were rejected.
Beijing’s insistence on importing Iranian oil is not driven by supply shortages or price discounts alone. The market is oversupplied, and prices are lower than last year.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted in its September 11 report that global oil production this year is expected to rise by 2.7 million bpd, while demand will increase by only 700,000 bpd.
Analysts estimate Tehran grants Chinese refiners discounts of $4-6 per barrel to keep crude moving. Yet China’s persistence in overlooking US sanctions may also serve as a bargaining chip in trade talks.
Since returning to office, President Trump has reimposed multiple layers of tariffs on Chinese goods, and US Census Bureau data shows imports from China fell 19% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025.
China’s refusal to enforce US oil sanctions against Iran could thus be part of a broader strategy to leverage concessions from Washington in its trade disputes.
Oil-for-goods nexus
Another key factor is that Chinese exports to Iran are closely tied to oil imports. Crude shipments underpin China’s status as Iran’s largest trading partner, with part of Tehran’s oil payments settled through barter with Chinese goods.
Beyond crude, China is also the main buyer of Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical products, which together account for about half of the country’s total exports.
Despite US sanctions this year on nine tankers carrying Iranian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), consultancy Vortexa reports Iran’s LPG exports rose to 1.1 million tons in August. Kpler data indicates China absorbs around 80% of that trade.
By relying on imports of Iranian oil and petroleum products, China now accounts for more than a quarter of Iran’s total goods imports—underscoring how central Beijing has become to Tehran’s economic survival.
