After the quietest night since Iran began its retaliatory attacks on Israel on Friday, the former head of the Iranian strategic desk in Israeli Defense Intelligence, a branch of the Israeli military, told Iran International that Tehran’s missile stocks are running low.
Danny Citrinowicz, who now heads the Iran and Shia axis program at the Institute of National Security Studies, said that at the beginning of the war, intelligence estimates showed Iran had around 2,000 missiles.
But as Israel pounds both launchers and production facilities, Iran is unable to regroup in time to retaliate to Israel’s ongoing attacks, he said.
“Iran is having a real problem to produce large salvos. They are calculating now in terms of what’s left, and they still have supplies but they know it’s going to be a lengthy war.”
After several consecutive nights of bombardment that have destroyed numerous homes and resulted in 24 deaths, Monday was a quiet night.
A missile strike hit a factory and bus station north of Tel Aviv in the only reported case of an impact.
According to Israeli military, since the start of the military campaign, fewer than 400 missiles and hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicles have been launched, causing approximately 35 impacts.
More than 647 people have been injured—with 10 seriously and 37 moderately—and nearly 19,000 damage claims have been filed, mostly for buildings. Additionally, 2,725 people have been evacuated from their homes.
Key commander killed
“With the air superiority of Israel and the assassination of the head of the missile program in the first surprise attacks, he will be hard to replace,” Citrinowicz said, referring to the death of Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the former commander of the IRGC Aerospace Forces.
“He headed last year’s April and October attacks on Israel and had so much knowledge and experience, and the trust of the top leadership, so while he was replaced, it would not be by someone like him with his caliber and expertise, and it’s taking a toll.”
Israel estimates 1,200 missiles left
Israeli estimates are that there are around 1,200 missiles left. “Iran can still have a war of attrition but they’ll have to calculate that. It will be very hard to launch 100-200 missiles at one time. They are under the superiority of Israel and can’t use a lot of launchers as Israel will hit them, and they are also launching in hiding,” added Citrinowicz.
“Israel has also hit the production hard. So what they started with, that’s what they have until the end of the war. Iran couldn’t have imagined such a thing would happen.”
“In the first blow, Iran’s senior leaders were at home. They didn’t see that coming and were very amateur. Iran is a one trick pony in terms of missiles. When Israel is really attacking facilities, it’s very hard for Iran to produce something dramatic and produce something to force Israel to stop the war.”
A Western intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Iran International that Iran's vulnerabilities are now on display.
"Iran’s capability is a paper tiger. This is why they created their network of proxies and why the regime so desperately want nuclear weapons," the official said.
"They are no match for Israel’s military firepower and defensive strength and Iran right now cannot risk dragging the US into war, so it will not attack US forces or facilities in the region," the source added.
